How This One Metric Could Have Saved a $630 Million Fund
By Prof. Jeffrey Bierman, CMT
Hey trader,
When I ran my hedge fund, there was one number my prime broker asked about before anything else.
Not my returns, not my positions, my Value at Risk.
Value at Risk tells you how much money you could lose on your worst day.
It combines the probability of a market event with the dollar amount that event would cost your specific portfolio.
Every hedge fund in the world computes it. Mutual funds do not have to.
Retail traders almost never do.
That gap is where fortunes get destroyed.
Long-Term Capital Management had Nobel laureates and the most sophisticated risk models on the planet.
They lost $630 million in less than 15 minutes on an event they calculated had lottery-ticket odds of occurring.
Right now the S&P 500 is sitting at 6,800 with weekly momentum already breaking to the downside.
If we drop to 6,000, most of you have no idea what that does to your actual account in dollar terms.
Today, I am going to show you how to figure that out before the market figures it out for you.
Since July, Genesis COG has delivered winning trades 83% of the time.
While everyone else avoided the energy sector, I went all-in on SLB and DVN—both returned approximately 30% gains.
My current portfolio sits at nearly 50% cash. I'm also holding strategic short positions that'll generate solid returns once this market finally breaks down.
Genesis COG isn't just about individual trades—it's about understanding how algorithmic systems control market movements and using that knowledge to your advantage.
I explain the full strategy in my newest video. Watch it here.
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