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Eli Lilly Booms, Then Busts: Stellar Guidance vs Hims Undercut

Authored by Leo Miller. Published: 2/6/2026.

Key Takeaways

Eli Lilly shares gained mightily after the company released its latest earnings report, with 2026 guidance coming in well past expectations.
However, HIMS stoked fears around LLY's oral GLP-1 potential the next day, wiping out much of the stock's gain.
After Lilly's earnings, updated price targets imply significant upside ahead for the stock.

In its latest earnings report, Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) once again showed why it has become, by far, one of the world's most valuable healthcare stocks. Year-to-date, Eli Lilly's market capitalization tops $900 billion—more than $300 billion larger than the next biggest name in the sector, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ).

Shares surged more than 10% on Feb. 4 as markets reacted to Lilly's earnings. The stock then swung sharply the next day, falling nearly 8% after an announcement from Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS). Despite the volatility, with strong growth expected in 2026 and a potential blockbuster drug on the way, Eli Lilly remains difficult to bet against.

Lilly Provides Stunning 2026 Guidance, Catapulting Shares

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Lilly's Q4 2025 results were impressive. Sales rose 43% to $19.3 billion, comfortably beating expectations of $17.9 billion (about 33% growth). Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbed 42% to $7.54, topping estimates of $7.48 (41% growth).

The standout was Lilly's 2026 guidance. On midpoint estimates the company expects full-year revenue of $81.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $34.25—implying growth of 25% and 41%, respectively. Those figures markedly exceeded analysts' forecasts, which anticipated revenue growth of 19% and adjusted EPS growth of 36%.

By contrast, Lilly's top competitor Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) forecasted sales to decline by 5% to 13% in 2026, underscoring the diverging trajectories. Lilly's share of the U.S. incretin market—a catch-all for GLP-1 and similar drugs—continues to expand. At the end of 2025 its market share stood at over 60%, versus Novo's 39%. A year earlier the two firms held nearly equal shares.

That shift isn't surprising. A 2025 study found Lilly's injectable tirzepatide produced nearly 50% more weight loss than Novo's injectable semaglutide, giving Lilly an edge when doctors choose which drug to prescribe.

HIMS Rains on LLY's Parade, Introducing Low-Cost Oral Copycat

Oral medications are the next battleground for Lilly and Novo. Novo's oral semaglutide is already FDA-approved, and Lilly plans to launch its oral candidate, orforglipron, in the U.S. in Q2 2026, with most international launches expected in 2027. Many investors view orforglipron as Lilly's next potential blockbuster because it can reach patients who avoid injections and may help maintain weight loss after stopping injectables.

But Hims & Hers Health is trying to complicate that picture. On Feb. 5, Hims announced it would start selling copycat versions of Novo's oral semaglutide at $49 for the first month and $99 thereafter—about $100 below Novo's monthly rates and well below the $149 to $399 Lilly plans to charge consumers for orforglipron, depending on dosage. That announcement sent Lilly's shares down 7.8% on Feb. 5.

Markets worry that Hims's lower pricing could dent demand for orforglipron and that Hims might attempt a copycat version of Lilly's drug. While those concerns are real, evidence suggests Lilly can withstand the challenge.

UBS Securities analyst Michael Yee estimates roughly 1 million prescriptions have been written for compounded GLP-1s, while providers have written about 100 million prescriptions across Novo and Lilly's branded GLP-1 franchises. That suggests compounded versions are a small fraction of overall demand. In short, Hims could be a nuisance, but its ability to meaningfully curb orforglipron's growth appears limited.

Updated Targets Eye 25% Upside in LLY Shares

With orforglipron's launch approaching and strong demand for its injectable drugs, the outlook for Eli Lilly shares remains constructive. The MarketBeat consensus price target for LLY is near $1,200, implying about 18% upside. Analysts who updated targets the day after Lilly's earnings averaged $1,273, suggesting roughly 25% potential upside for the stock.