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Just For You Macy's Beats Expectations Again, But Guidance Spooks InvestorsSubmitted by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Article Posted: 3/24/2026. 
Key Points - Macy’s stock surged more than 140% from its April 2025 low to a December high above $24 as investors gained confidence in the company’s “Bold New Chapter” turnaround strategy, but shares have since pulled back sharply in 2026.
- The company delivered another strong fourth-quarter report, beating earnings and revenue expectations for the fourth consecutive quarter, a sign that the turnaround strategy is gaining traction.
- Despite the solid results, Macy’s conservative full-year guidance and uncertainty around discretionary spending prompted several analysts to lower price targets, leaving the stock with a Reduce consensus rating.
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Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) stock was a must-have for investors in 2025. Wall Street applauded the retailer’s progress on its turnaround strategy and a string of better-than-expected earnings reports. Recently, however, the stock has lost some of its shine. Shares pulled back sharply in 2026 as momentum slowed amid an uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop that has clouded the outlook for consumer spending. Although Macy’s again delivered a better-than-expected quarter, analysts took a more cautious stance after the company issued conservative guidance. Strong 2025 Rally Fades as Consumer Spending Concerns Weigh on Macy’s Stock Macy’s shares fell below $10 in April 2025, marking a 52-week low, as the traditional department-store model continued to face pressure. The stock gained traction later in 2025, however, as investors grew more confident that the company’s “Bold New Chapter” strategy, announced in 2024, was starting to produce results. The plan aims to reposition the company by closing underperforming locations, expanding its presence in the luxury segment, and improving operating efficiency. Confidence that the strategy was working helped the stock surge roughly 140% from the April low, with shares hitting a 52-week high above $24 in December. But that momentum faded as concerns about consumer spending moved to the forefront. By year-end 2025 the stock traded near $22, and during the first two months of 2026 it mostly ranged between $20 and $22. Shares began trending lower in late February, and by the time Macy’s reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on March 18, the stock had slipped below $17. Following the earnings release, shares received a modest bump, rising more than 6% over the next two sessions, but the move did not reverse the downtrend. The stock, currently trading around $18, is down roughly 15% over the last month—broadly in line with the retail industry, which is down more than 16% over the same period. Earnings Beat Again, But Cautious Outlook Tempers Enthusiasm Macy’s fourth-quarter report offered another sign that the turnaround strategy is gaining traction: both earnings and revenue beat Wall Street expectations. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.67 topped consensus estimates of $1.55, while revenue of $7.92 billion beat forecasts of $7.48 billion. The quarter marked Macy’s fourth consecutive earnings beat. Strength at Bloomingdale’s and improving results at its “go-forward” locations—the stores slated for upgrades and modernization—were particularly encouraging. The company’s client base, which skews toward mid- and upper-income shoppers, also helped performance, since those customers have been less affected by pressures on lower-income consumers. Still, Macy’s conservative guidance tempered investor enthusiasm. On the earnings call, CEO Tony Spring reiterated confidence in the retailer’s long-term strategy but said the company is “taking a prudent approach to guidance,” given macroeconomic and geopolitical risks that could affect discretionary spending. Macy’s expects full-year net sales of $21.4 billion to $21.65 billion, with comps (comparable-store sales) ranging from down 0.5% to up 0.5%. Earnings per share are forecast at $1.90 to $2.10. The company said the guidance gives it flexibility to respond to changes in the competitive landscape and the broader economy. Analysts Lower Price Targets As Most See Limited Upside After the earnings release, several analysts lowered their price targets on Macy’s stock, signaling that while the turnaround story remains intact, near-term upside may be limited. The current consensus rating on the stock is Reduce, based on 14 analyst ratings. Of those, 10 rate the stock a Hold, three rate it a Sell, and only one analyst has a Buy rating. That is slightly more bearish than the broader retail sector, which carries a consensus rating of Hold. The average 12-month price target for Macy’s is $18.90 per share, implying less than 5% upside from current levels, suggesting the stock may remain largely range-bound unless discretionary spending meaningfully improves. For now, Macy’s appears to be balancing improving execution with a challenging macro backdrop. While the company continues to deliver better-than-expected results, the cautious guidance and muted analyst outlook indicate investors may need a clearer catalyst before the stock regains momentum. |
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