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What does the "Smart Money" know that you don't?
On March 31st, a 90-year-old law is set to pull the rug out from under the global gold market.
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"The Buck Stops Here,"
Dylan Jovine, CEO & Founder
Behind the Markets
How the Risk/Reward Calculation Is Changing for Discount Retail
Reported by Nathan Reiff. Article Published: 3/18/2026.
Key Points
- Discount retail stocks can reflect broader consumer sentiment and sensitivities surrounding issues like inflation, the cost of gas and food, and more.
- Dollar General and Dollar Tree both reported strong earnings in the latest cycle, but both stocks are down year to date.
- Between the two companies, Dollar Tree may have an advantage thanks to the flexibility of its multi-price strategy and its momentum after divesting the Family Dollar business.
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A weak February 2026 jobs report, persistent inflation, and the risk of oil price spikes — along with other effects of the ongoing war in Iran — could disrupt an economy many investors already view as fragile. Discount retail stores provide a useful window into the financial stresses facing lower- and middle-income households. Rising sales at these chains can signal customers are tightening budgets and prioritizing essentials.
Companies like Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG) and Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) offer insight into pressures from rising prices for items such as food, housing and gasoline. While discount retailers can also perform well in stronger economies — and their results depend on operations and company-specific factors — their performance often reflects broader consumer spending trends.
Dollar General's Strong Recent Results May Not Outweigh Anticipated Pressures to Come
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Click here to get the details and I'll show you how to claim your stake…Dollar General recently reported strong Q4 fiscal 2025 results (ended Jan. 30, 2026). Revenue rose nearly 6% year over year (YoY) to $10.9 billion, driven by a solid same-store sales improvement of 4.3%. Gross margin expanded by about 105 basis points for the quarter, helped by lower inventory and reduced shrink.
The company is pursuing aggressive expansion, planning roughly 450 new U.S. stores this year while growing its delivery program and moving further into digital services.
Despite those positives, forward guidance was muted: Dollar General expects fiscal 2026 same-store sales growth of only 2.2% to 2.7% and net sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2%. Management also does not plan to repurchase shares this fiscal year, which can weigh on valuation given the stock trades at more than 19 times earnings.
While Dollar General may see increased traffic from middle-income customers, its core base — households earning $50,000 or less — remains under pressure. Shares of DG dropped more than 9% in the week after the earnings release and are down about 3.6% so far this year. Analysts see a little more than 10% upside potential for the stock, but fewer than half of the 30 analyst ratings on DG are Buys.
Dollar Tree's Multi-Price Approach Continues to Succeed, But External Challenges Loom As Well
Dollar Tree also reported solid Q4 fiscal 2025 results (ended Jan. 31, 2026). Comparable store sales rose 5% YoY, full-year net sales increased about 10%, and gross margin improved roughly 150 basis points. The company generated roughly $1.2 billion in cash from operations and repurchased about $1.6 billion of stock during the fiscal year.
Two factors set Dollar Tree apart. First, its summer 2025 divestiture of the Family Dollar brand helped streamline operations and contributed to a share rally of nearly 70% over the past year. Second, Dollar Tree's multi-price strategy — adding $3, $5 and $7 price points beyond the traditional price — has been effective.
About 5,300 Dollar Tree locations were using the multi-price format at the end of fiscal 2025, with that model representing roughly 16% of sales and still growing.
Forward guidance was also modest: management projected 3% to 4% comparable-store sales growth, $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion in net sales, and earnings per share of $6.50 to $6.90 for fiscal 2026. Despite its operational advantages, Dollar Tree faces headwinds from tariffs, rising oil and gasoline prices, potential changes in tax policy, and other external risks.
Ultimately, Dollar Tree may be more attractive to some investors thanks to a cleaner balance sheet and a stronger near-term earnings growth path. However, external factors and the scalability of the multi-price strategy remain uncertainties. For now, analysts remain cautious, assigning an overall Hold rating and forecasting upside potential comparable to Dollar General.
Macy's Beats Expectations Again, But Guidance Spooks Investors
Author: Jennifer Ryan Woods. Publication Date: 3/24/2026.
Key Points
- Macy’s stock surged more than 140% from its April 2025 low to a December high above $24 as investors gained confidence in the company’s “Bold New Chapter” turnaround strategy, but shares have since pulled back sharply in 2026.
- The company delivered another strong fourth-quarter report, beating earnings and revenue expectations for the fourth consecutive quarter, a sign that the turnaround strategy is gaining traction.
- Despite the solid results, Macy’s conservative full-year guidance and uncertainty around discretionary spending prompted several analysts to lower price targets, leaving the stock with a Reduce consensus rating.
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Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) was a favorite among investors in 2025. Wall Street applauded the retailer’s progress on its turnaround and a string of better-than-expected earnings reports. Lately, however, the stock has lost some of that momentum.
Shares pulled back sharply in 2026 as momentum slowed amid an uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop that clouded the outlook for consumer spending. Although Macy’s recently reported another beat, analysts have grown more cautious after the company issued conservative guidance.
Strong 2025 Rally Fades as Consumer Spending Concerns Weigh on Macy’s Stock
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Click here to get the details and I'll show you how to claim your stake…Macy’s shares fell below $10 in April 2025, marking a 52-week low as the traditional department-store model continued to face pressure. The stock regained traction later in the year as investors grew more confident that the company’s "Bold New Chapter" strategy, announced in 2024, was starting to produce results.
The initiative aims to reposition the company by closing underperforming locations, expanding in the luxury segment and improving operating efficiency.
Growing confidence that the strategy was working helped the stock surge about 140% from the April low, with shares hitting a 52-week high above $24 in December. But momentum has since faded as concerns about consumer spending have become more prominent.
By the end of 2025 the stock had eased to around $22, and during the first two months of 2026 it traded between $20 and $22.
The shares began trending lower toward the end of February; by the time Macy’s reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on March 18, the price had dropped below $17.
Following the earnings release, shares received a modest bump, rising more than 6% over the next two sessions, but the rebound didn’t reverse the downtrend. The stock, trading around $18, is down about 15% over the last month — roughly in line with the broader retail industry, which is down more than 16% over the same period.
Earnings Beat Again, But Cautious Outlook Tempers Enthusiasm
Macy’s fourth-quarter report offered another sign that the turnaround is progressing: both earnings and revenue topped Wall Street expectations. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.67 exceeded consensus estimates of $1.55, while revenue of $7.92 billion beat forecasts of $7.48 billion. It was Macy’s fourth consecutive earnings beat.
Strength at Bloomingdale’s and improving results at its "go-forward" locations — the stores slated for upgrades and modernization — were particularly encouraging. The company’s client base, which skews toward mid- and upper-income shoppers, also supported performance since those customers have been less affected by pressures on lower-income consumers.
Despite the positive print, Macy’s conservative guidance tempered enthusiasm. On the earnings call, CEO Tony Spring reiterated confidence in the company’s long-term plan but said the company is "taking a prudent approach to guidance" given macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties that could affect discretionary spending.
Macy’s expects full-year net sales of $21.4 billion to $21.65 billion, with same-store sales (comps) ranging from down 0.5% to up 0.5%. Earnings per share are expected to be between $1.90 and $2.10. The company said the guidance gives it flexibility to respond to changes in the competitive landscape and the broader macro environment.
Analysts Lower Price Targets As Most See Limited Upside
After the earnings release, several analysts reduced their price targets, indicating that while the turnaround story remains intact, near-term upside could be limited.
The current consensus rating on the stock is Reduce, based on 14 analyst ratings: 10 Hold, three Sell and one Buy.
That is slightly more bearish than the broader retail sector, which carries a consensus rating of Hold.
The average 12-month price target for Macy’s is $18.90 per share, implying less than 5% upside from current levels — suggesting the stock may remain largely range-bound unless discretionary spending meaningfully improves.
For now, Macy’s appears to be balancing improving execution with a challenging macro backdrop.
While the company continues to deliver better-than-expected results, the cautious guidance and muted analyst outlook suggest investors may want a clearer catalyst before the stock regains broader favor.
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