Why everyone is wrong about the VIX right now
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Miss today’s Opening Playbook? - Panic Pays Off: The "Fear Index" (VIX) just spiked to 31, which usually makes people want to sell everything. But history shows that when everyone is this terrified, the market tends to bounce back big—averaging a 22% gain over the next year, which is double the usual return.
- The "Month Two" Bounce: After a war starts, the first 31 days are almost always messy and red. We’re crossing that threshold now, and that's when things usually flip; the "win rate" for stocks jumps to 67% as investors realize they overreacted and start buying back discounted sectors like Healthcare.
- Interest Rate Relief: Just last week, people were worried about more rate hikes, but those odds just crashed from 25% to almost zero. This shift makes it much cheaper for people to borrow money, which is a massive green light for real estate stocks and gold miners that have been getting crushed lately..
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