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Ollie's Stock Won't Stay a Bargain Much Longer

By Thomas Hughes. First Published: 3/15/2026.

Key Points

Ollie's Bargain Outlet posted strong revenue growth in Q4 despite slim misses on earnings and guidance, with both comp-store sales and store expansion outpacing expectations.
The Big Lots bankruptcy is creating a customer conversion opportunity that analysts believe has years left to play out—and isn't yet reflected in the stock price.
Institutional investors own nearly all of the float and have been steady buyers, backing a company that funds its own growth and trades below every analyst's target.
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Ollie’s Bargain Outlet's (NASDAQ: OLLI) downtrend appears to be over. The Q4 2025 results are in and, while slightly below consensus, they reaffirm a healthy outlook. The misses were small, growth and outlook remain solid, and the weakness was not as unexpected as consensus suggested.

Analysts at RBC issued cautious guidance ahead of the release, but also highlighted Ollie’s strong positioning, aggressive expansion plan, and potential to outperform in coming years. RBC noted that the Big Lots bankruptcy and the resulting customer conversion to Ollie’s are multiyear events that aren't fully reflected in the stock price.

Ollie’s Outperforms Peers as Expansion Takes Hold

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Ollie’s delivered a strong quarter even though revenue came in slightly below consensus. Net revenue of $779.26 million was up 16.8% year-over-year—well ahead of many peers—driven by better-than-expected comps and store-count growth. Comparable sales rose 3.6%, a touch above RBC’s forecast, while store count increased 15.4%.

Margins held up reasonably well despite the miss, as spending controls and revenue leverage partially offset the costs of new store openings. Adjusted EPS missed consensus by two cents, a narrow shortfall, and earnings growth slightly outpaced revenue growth. Looking ahead, opening expenses should normalize as the new stores mature, which should improve margin visibility and earnings quality over the next two to three years.

Guidance was modestly below MarketBeat's reported consensus but still implies solid growth. The company expects revenue in the range of $2.985 billion to $3.013 billion (midpoint just under $3.0 billion) and an earnings midpoint of $4.45 versus the $4.53 consensus—guidance that implies roughly 10% top-line growth.

Conservative Guidance Could Kick Off a Bullish Revision Cycle

A key investor opportunity is that management’s guidance may be conservative. Last year’s 15.4% store-count growth sets a high base, and management plans to add another 11.6% in stores this year. Additional tailwinds—such as consumer uplift tied to tax season and an average check more than 10% larger than a year ago—could provide further upside. If Ollie’s outperforms guidance, analysts are likely to revise estimates upward, which would be bullish for the stock.

Ollie’s carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating from the 16 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, with no Sell ratings. No immediate revisions followed the Q4 release, but several analysts commented on the company’s growth potential and a 12.1% increase in loyalty members while noting the difficulty of future comparisons. While not all analysts are convinced about the long-term impact of the Big Lots conversion, the group is generally bullish—forecasting an average upside of roughly 30%. Early March trading below the low end of the analysts' range highlights a deep-value opportunity and potential for a rebound.

Institutional ownership also signals opportunity: institutions own nearly the entire float and tend to add on a quarterly basis. They cite reasons such as a strong balance sheet, self-funded growth, attractive cash flow, and the potential for returns of capital.

The company doesn’t pay a dividend, preferring to reinvest in the business, but it does repurchase shares at a pace sufficient to offset dilution. The incremental decline in share count provides a modest base from which future per-share returns can grow. Industry peers and leaders like TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) are established dividend and buyback producers—an identity Ollie’s appears to be evolving toward.

Ollie’s Stock Price Bounces From Rock Bottom

Shares hit a low late in 2025, staged a quick rebound, and retested that level in early 2026. After the guidance update, Ollie’s stock rose more than 5%, confirming that level as support. That price point was a resistance target set in 2019, broken in early 2025, and now appears to be a firm support level. The most likely outcome is continued advancement through 2026, potentially accelerating as the year progresses.

Additional Reading from MarketBeat.com

After a 500% Rally, Wayfair's Pullback Could Be an Opportunity

Submitted by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Date Posted: 3/18/2026.

Key Points

Wayfair rallied nearly 500% from its April 2025 low to a January high near $120, fueled by three consecutive earnings beats and a tariff delay on upholstered furniture.
The Q4 report beat on adjusted EPS and revenue, but a GAAP loss of $0.89 per share and margin pressure from growth investments sparked a 35% pullback from the high.
Analysts still see more than 30% upside with a Moderate Buy consensus, though 18% short interest and heavy insider selling suggest sentiment remains divided.
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Wayfair Inc. (NYSE: W) has built a reputation for helping shoppers find deals on home furnishings and décor. After a recent pullback, investors are asking whether Wayfair's stock could now be a compelling buy.

Shares of Wayfair began an exceptional rally in April 2025. Despite a sluggish housing market, weakness across the home furnishings category, and tariff pressures, the Boston-based e-commerce retailer continued to gain market share and beat expectations.

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The company posted three consecutive quarters of better-than-expected earnings, which helped push the stock higher. The shares got an additional boost in January when the Trump administration announced plans to delay tariff increases on upholstered furniture and other products Wayfair sells, easing concerns about cost pressure.

Those developments lifted the stock from its 52-week low of around $20 in April 2025 to a 52-week high of nearly $120 in mid-January — an astonishing gain of almost 500%.

Mixed Earnings and Profit Taking Spark Pullback

In early January, investor sentiment shifted and the stock began to pull back. Some of the decline reflected profit-taking after the big run, while concerns about overvaluation also emerged.

The company's Q4 2025 earnings report on Feb. 19 added to the pressure. Wayfair reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.85, excluding certain costs, topping analysts' expectations of $0.64. Revenue of $3.34 billion also exceeded the $3.30 billion analysts had forecast.

Those results were notable given continued weakness in the home furnishings category, which has struggled in recent years amid tariffs and a soft housing market that has dampened demand for home-related purchases.

In its press release, Wayfair co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Niraj Shah said, "Q4 capped off a tremendous year for Wayfair. We had our third consecutive quarter of new customer growth, on top of healthy growth in repeat orders, all in the face of a category that contracted in the low single digits for the final quarter of the year."

GAAP Loss and Margin Concerns Weigh on Shares

Despite the optimistic tone, investors were spooked by Wayfair's GAAP results, which included costs — such as equity-based compensation and the repurchase of convertible notes — that were excluded from adjusted EPS. Wayfair posted a GAAP loss of $0.89 per share, a sizable miss versus the $0.01 loss Wall Street had expected.

Investors were also worried about near-term margin pressure after the company said it would continue to invest to capture additional market share. Shares had climbed more than 10% ahead of the earnings release but fell more than 13% on higher-than-average volume after the report.

Several analysts lowered their price targets following the earnings. Overall, though, sentiment remains constructive: the average 12-month price target of $104.62 implies more than 33% upside from the current price. The consensus rating on the stock is a Moderate Buy, with 19 analysts giving Buy ratings, 11 assigning Hold ratings and two issuing Sell ratings.

Given analysts' bullish outlook and expectations for continued top-line growth, the recent pullback could present an entry point for some investors. Since hitting its 52-week high in mid-January, Wayfair shares have fallen roughly 35% and are trading around $78. However, investors buying at current levels should be prepared for a bumpy ride.

Shares have been far more volatile than the broader retail sector, and that volatility could persist. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT), which tracks a broad basket of U.S. retail companies, is down around 8% over the last three months, compared with a roughly 21% decline for Wayfair. Over the past year, XRT is up about 19%, while Wayfair has gained roughly 149%.

Risks Remain Despite Bullish Outlook

Wayfair remains sensitive to consumer spending trends, housing market conditions and margin pressure from ongoing investments. While the company's turnaround story is promising, it is not risk-free. Investors considering the pullback as a buying opportunity should expect continued volatility, even if the long-term outlook remains positive.

Short interest in Wayfair remains elevated, with roughly 18% of the float sold short. Although short positions have ticked down slightly in recent reports, the high level of bearish bets indicates that sentiment is still mixed. Insiders have also been active sellers over the past year, with more than $265 million of shares sold and no insider buying reported. Much of that selling occurred after the stock's sharp rally, suggesting insiders were largely taking profits rather than signaling a change in the company's fundamental outlook.

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