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Don here...
Jeff Bierman shorted Jefferies three times over the past year and cleaned up every time.
Yesterday, for the first time, he said it's a buy.
The stock went from 65 times earnings at the top to washed out at current levels.
That pivot tells you everything about where we are in the cycle.
Jeff called today's session "The Hangover."
Yesterday's 150-point rally was a gamma squeeze triggered by a tweet.
Shorts got squeezed for a day. Jeff told members to sell it.
Today proved him right.
In today's Live Trading Room session replay, you'll see:
- Why Jefferies flipped from Jeff's favorite short to a buy candidate. He shorted it three times from the 50s using P/E ratio analysis. The stock should never have traded above 15 times earnings. Now it's technically washed out with Sumitomo Financial Group circling as a takeover candidate. Jeff's looking to initiate around 38.
- The Synopsys activist investor trap that cost fund managers their exit. Elliott Capital announced a large stake. The stock printed an inverted hammer and fell another 18 points the next day. Jeff walked through the money flow showing institutions used the gamma squeeze to offload positions on retail buyers.
- How to identify which market cycle phase you're trading in. Jeff mapped the four phases of market cycles against current conditions. The S&P is in the markdown phase. Buying dips here means buying into a vacuum where algos sell into every trend. First support sits at 6,200. Below that, 5,500.
- The 12-month inflation expectation that just hit 5.2%. Independent think tanks published this number yesterday. Five percent inflation means you need better than 5% stock returns just to break even. Jeff's sitting on 52% cash and isn't deploying it.
Jeff also broke down why the IEA's energy crisis warning is actually a contrarian signal.
Oil has already priced in $109 per barrel.
When headline panic peaks, the trade is to take profits on energy positions.
The coaching session launched a multi-day series on bridging economic and market cycles.
Jeff defined the accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown phases with real-time examples from his own portfolio.
This framework is how he positioned ahead of every major move this year.
→ Watch Jeff's complete breakdown of the markdown phase, the Jefferies flip, and why every rally gets sold until rotation changes
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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