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This Month's Bonus News
Lumentum's 1,500% Run and Nvidia's $2 Billion Deal: What Comes Next?Written by Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 4/9/2026.
Key Points
- Lumentum surged by more than 1,400% as AI infrastructure demand drove momentum and led to its S&P 500 inclusion.
- A $2 billion partnership with NVIDIA positions the company at the center of next-gen optical networking.
- Despite strong catalysts, valuation, short interest, and capacity constraints suggest patience may be warranted.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
Investors may not have heard much about Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE) in the mainstream financial press in 2025, but that’s changing. LITE is up more than 1,500% over the last 12 months, and two newsworthy catalysts have put the company squarely in the spotlight of the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) trade. Founded in 2015 as a spinoff from JDS Uniphase, Lumentum makes optical and photonic products used in telecommunications, 3D sensing and, increasingly, data center infrastructure. For years it was a relatively quiet supplier to the tech industry—well known inside the sector but rarely a headline name. That era appears to be over. Lumentum Rhymes With MomentumIt’s just a coincidence that Lumentum rhymes with momentum. The stock was quietly building that momentum through 2025 and broke out in 2026, climbing roughly 140% year to date.
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Part of that run came from anticipation of inclusion in the S&P 500, announced on March 10. Inclusion doesn’t change a stock’s intrinsic value, and unlike the experience with Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR), it didn’t materially increase institutional ownership—over 94% of LITE’s float was already held by institutions (source). The more significant catalyst was a partnership announced with NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) to accelerate innovation in advanced optics technologies. NVIDIA will pay Lumentum $2 billion, a sum larger than the company’s total revenue for fiscal 2025. Why NVIDIA Is Betting on LumentumSome investors are showing data-center fatigue, reflected in technology stocks that are under pressure amid concerns the buildout may not meet expectations. But Lumentum operates in the photonics market, which is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% through 2030. Photonics connects data-center components with light, which can transmit signals faster and—with significantly less heat generation—avoid some thermal constraints of traditional interconnects. Copper remains the standard because it's cheaper than optical equipment, and it will likely stay widely used. However, a copper shortage has created an opening for photonics providers. For NVIDIA, the partnership is forward-looking. As AI clusters scale to hundreds of thousands of GPUs, bandwidth and thermal limits of copper interconnects become harder to manage. By partnering closely with one of the leading optical component makers, NVIDIA is hedging against potential infrastructure bottlenecks that could slow AI deployments. For Lumentum, the $2 billion commitment supplies capital to expand manufacturing capacity and accelerate R&D at a pace that would be hard to fund organically. A Trend Reversal Worth WatchingInclusion in the S&P 500 may not drastically change long-term institutional interest, but it can affect sentiment. Over the past two quarters, institutional investors were net sellers of LITE—not necessarily a repudiation of the business but a sign the stock may have been priced for perfection. Now that Lumentum has been added to the S&P 500, many index-tracking funds must own LITE. That buying pressure could establish a firmer price floor, even if it doesn’t alter the company’s longer-term fundamentals. Traders May Want to Wait for a PullbackThe chart shows investors buying LITE in advance of its S&P 500 debut. The stock rallied between the March 10 announcement and March 23, when it began trading as part of the index.  Some of that move was driven by short covering. LITE carries short interest around 16% of the float. That level isn’t extreme but is elevated by historical standards and rose as the stock advanced in 2025. The rally has also pushed LITE’s valuation to lofty levels even by technology-stock standards. LITE may need a fresh catalyst to sustain further gains. Investors will likely look to the company’s Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report, scheduled for May 5, for updates. The market will pay close attention to progress on manufacturing capacity, which was constrained in the prior quarter. Retail investors may wonder whether the stock’s extraordinary run already prices in the good news. The bullish case is that the NVIDIA partnership and S&P 500 inclusion mark the start of a longer re-rating. But given constrained capacity, elevated short interest and a stretched valuation, patience—or waiting for a pullback—may be the prudent position. The May earnings report will provide the clearest evidence yet of whether Lumentum’s fundamentals can catch up to its stock price. |
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