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Special Report
The War Won't Last Forever: 3 Stocks That Could Lead the RecoveryBy Bridget Bennett. Publication Date: 4/8/2026. 
Key Points
- Citigroup's global treasury services business spans over 160 countries, making it uniquely positioned to benefit from a rebound in cross-border economic activity once the conflict ends.
- Verizon's 5.7% dividend yield and 22 consecutive years of dividend growth give investors a defensive anchor while they wait for the communications sector to recover.
- Delta Air Lines owns the only airline-operated oil refinery in the United States, a competitive edge that has kept its stock resilient while rival carriers suffered double-digit declines.
- Special Report: Elon Musk’s $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
The Dow is in correction territory. Oil has surged past $110 a barrel. Financials, communications, and airlines are among the worst-performing sectors since the Iran conflict began in late February. Most investors instinctively look away. But Oxford Club Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld is looking closer—specifically at stocks in those beaten-down sectors that haven't broken down with everything else. Relative strength during a selloff isn't random. When the cycle turns, the names that held up tend to be the first ones institutional money flows back into. Lichtenfeld sees that setup forming right now across three familiar names. Citigroup: Global Reach Is Its MoatThe financial sector has taken a beating since the Iran conflict began. Rising oil prices threaten to slow the economy, which means less borrowing, fewer IPOs, and weaker investment banking revenue across the board.
For a moment…
Forget about Trump’s ties to Israel.
Forget about reports of Iran’s nuclear program.
Because my research has led me to believe we’re risking World War 3 with Iran for a completely different reason. Click here to find out what it is.
But Citigroup (NYSE: C) has held up better than most of its mega-bank peers—and Lichtenfeld says the reason is its treasury and trade solutions business. While JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) dominate domestic headlines, Citigroup operates in more than 160 countries and processes roughly $3 trillion in daily transactions through its cash management platform. That global footprint matters. A company based in Mongolia or Saudi Arabia is far more likely to turn to Citi for cash management than to any other Wall Street bank. And once that relationship is in place, it's extremely sticky. Switching cash management providers is operationally complex, which gives Citigroup a durable revenue stream competitors can't easily replicate. Lichtenfeld expects improving margins in Citigroup's next earnings report, scheduled for April 14. The stock trades at roughly 11 times forward earnings, well below its five-year average. Citigroup's ongoing strategic repositioning—spinning off its Mexico consumer business and reinvesting in commercial banking and wealth—could give the valuation room to expand once macro pressure lifts. If financial stocks rebound quickly when the conflict ends, Lichtenfeld sees that as a signal the global economy is healing. If they don't, it may be a warning worth paying attention to. Verizon: A 5.9% Yield With a Defensive EdgeConsumer uncertainty tends to push people toward cheaper alternatives, and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) sits at the premium end of the wireless market. That positioning is a headwind in the short term but a tailwind when sentiment improves. People don't downgrade from Verizon because they dislike the service—they do it because the budget gets tight. When confidence returns, so does the willingness to pay for premium. In the meantime, Verizon's dividend does the heavy lifting. The company has raised its payout for 22 consecutive years. In January, the company declared a quarterly dividend of about 71 cents per share, which puts the forward yield at roughly 5.9%. Free cash flow more than covers the dividend, with guidance calling for at least $21.5 billion in 2026—a year-over-year increase of more than 7%. New CEO Dan Schulman has moved aggressively since taking over in October 2025, slashing $9 billion in combined operating and capital expenses and authorizing a $25 billion share buyback program over the next three years. Verizon also completed its acquisition of Frontier Communications, expanding its fiber access to over 30 million homes and businesses. Lichtenfeld notes that if post-conflict government spending shifts back toward infrastructure, Frontier's rural broadband footprint could become a meaningful growth driver. Delta: Refinery Changes the Math on AirlinesAirlines are the most obvious casualty of any conflict that sends oil prices surging. But Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) has a structural advantage no other U.S. carrier can match: it owns the Trainer Refinery in Pennsylvania through its subsidiary Monroe Energy. That 185,000-barrel-per-day facility produces about 52,000 barrels of jet fuel daily, offsetting 40% to 50% of Delta's domestic fuel costs. When crude prices spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the refinery saved Delta roughly $800 million. With Brent crude now above $110 a barrel due to the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, the refinery is proving its worth again. While competitors have posted double-digit declines, Delta's stock has remained essentially flat since February. There's an additional wrinkle: the refinery also produces diesel, which Delta can trade for jet fuel. With diesel prices at elevated levels, that trade is generating meaningful value on its own. Delta has maintained its full-year 2026 earnings guidance of $6.50 to $7.50 per share, while most peers have pulled or widened their outlooks. The stock trades at roughly nine times trailing earnings with a forward P/E near 9.3, making it one of the cheapest names in the S&P 500 relative to its earnings-growth trajectory. Relative Strength Now, Potential Outperformance LaterThe common thread across all three names is relative strength during sector weakness. That pattern tends to matter when cycles turn. If the Iran conflict ends and oil begins to normalize, the sectors getting punished hardest—financials, communications, airlines—could see some of the sharpest snapbacks. And within those groups, the stocks that held up best during the downturn have historically been the ones that lead the recovery. None of this requires predicting when the war ends. It requires watching which names the market is quietly telling you it believes in most. |
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