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Exclusive Content
Is There a Buying Opportunity in the SPY ETF?Reported by Thomas Hughes. Article Posted: 4/6/2026. 
Key Points
- SPY ETF investors face an opportunity in April that is no joke: valuations are historically low, and chart signals are bullish.
- NVIDIA and AI underpin the outlook, which centers on earnings growth, acceleration, and improving forecasts.
- Oil is the biggest risk, with prices high and inflationary pressure coursing through the economy.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Despite risks and headwinds, the signs point to a solid entry opportunity for SPDR S&P ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) investors. It’s important to remember that the SPY ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index, so drivers of the index drive the ETF as well. In this case, a robust earnings outlook underpinned by AI, generational-quality valuations in leading stocks, and the potential for clearer macro conditions later this year are the main supports. SPY Technicals Align With Trend-Following OpportunityThe SPY technicals look bullish. The analysis begins with the weekly chart and trading volume: volume is elevated on a trailing 12-month basis relative to the prior 12 months, with spikes as price declined in Q1. Price action in the first week of Q2 shows buying, producing a peak in MACD that converges with the trend. The takeaway is that the March 2026 ETF price correction was smaller than the previous correction, with rising volume supporting the market.
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Stochastic readings also support the uptrend: the short-term %D line has formed a double bottom and crossed over %K, while %K is rebounding.  The bottom line: enough technical signals have aligned to present a strong trend-following signal for technical traders. One critical element remains missing, however — the market is still below its 150-day EMA, which indicates resistance from longer-term holders, though that resistance could fade quickly if other catalysts materialize. Earnings Growth and Outlook Underpin S&P 500 and SPY Price OutlookEarnings are the single most important factor for the S&P 500 and SPY uptrend. When earnings are growing, the index and ETF tend to trend higher, and those uptrends are typically stronger when growth and growth forecasts are improving. Currently, the consensus forecast for S&P 500 earnings growth this year is about 17.5%. That 17.5% represents a sequential acceleration from 2025, and the pace of revisions has also picked up. Data reported by FactSet show improvements across all four quarters this year, with growth expected to accelerate from Q1 through Q3 — peaking above 20% — then holding near 20% in Q4. This is a meaningful tailwind for market sentiment, and another catalyst is at work. The market has tended to underestimate S&P 500 earnings potential, and that underestimation widened last year. Participants have structurally underestimated the strength of AI-related spending each quarter and are likely to continue doing so in 2026. That dynamic positions the index to outperform consensus forecasts, increasing the chance of a pronounced upside as the year progresses. NVIDIA (and Tech) Is the Likely Catalyst for a Broad Market RallyThere are numerous catalysts this year, but the most impactful is likely NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA). Representing more than 7% of the index and central to AI, NVIDIA is expected to continue growing at a hyper-growth pace, beat estimates, and deliver upbeat guidance. After several quarters of consolidation, profit-taking, and rotation, the stock currently appears attractively priced relative to its growth potential. Trading at just under 22X its current-year earnings forecasts in early April, the market is placing little premium on NVIDIA — the first time in about a decade that has happened. In this scenario, near-term upside could be in the ~50% range, with the potential for much larger gains over a longer horizon. Blue-chip tech often trades at 30X–35X earnings at the peak of its cycle; with NVIDIA at roughly 22X current-year earnings and about 7X longer-term forecasts, a strong, outlook-affirming report could unlock substantial upside. The Risk Is Oil — Higher Prices Drive InflationThe biggest macro risk for the market is oil. Oil prices are up significantly from recent lows and are contributing to price pressures across the economy. Because oil prices are unlikely to fall substantially in the near term, investors should expect another inflation shock. The risk is that the FOMC will not only pause plans to cut rates but may adopt a more hawkish stance, which would raise the odds of additional rate hikes and increase the recession risk. |
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