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Additional Reading from MarketBeat Media
Affirm: A Solid Footing or More Volatility Ahead?Authored by Peter Frank. Date Posted: 3/29/2026. 
Key Points
- Affirm is delivering strong growth and improving profitability as adoption expands across merchants and consumers.
- Partnerships and network effects are strengthening its position in the competitive buy-now-pay-later market.
- Rising credit risks and intense competition could pressure margins if economic conditions weaken.
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon’s AI Masterplan
If you’ve ever split a purchase into separate payments at checkout, there’s a good chance you’ve been a customer of Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ: AFRM). The company sits at the center of the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) boom, and after years of prioritizing growth over profits, it’s beginning to deliver both. That’s the good news. But there are reasons to be cautious. Strong Growth and Profitability Signal Momentum
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Affirm’s most recent quarter was a standout. In its second fiscal quarter, ended Dec. 31, gross merchandise volume (GMV)—the total value of purchases financed through its platform—hit $13.8 billion, up 36% year over year. Revenue climbed 30% to $1.12 billion, and net income rose 61% year over year to $130 million. The company also beat Wall Street expectations, reporting earnings of $0.37 per share and an adjusted operating margin of 30%. The underlying operating metrics were equally encouraging. Total transactions in the quarter jumped 44% to nearly 55 million, the number of merchants offering Affirm at checkout grew 42% to 478,000, and active customers rose 23% to 25.8 million. That increased adoption matters because, beyond any single partnership, it suggests a network effect that could become self-reinforcing over time. Expansion Strategy and Partnerships Drive ScaleManagement has laid out a clear roadmap. Full-year GMV is projected to reach $48.3–$48.85 billion, with revenue between $4.09 and $4.15 billion. Hitting those targets would strengthen the case that Affirm has moved from a fast-growing startup to a durable, expanding business. The company is also broadening its reach. Partnerships with Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP), Wayfair (NYSE: W), Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU), Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE), Worldpay, Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) and others show the company moving beyond discretionary retail spend and pushing deeper into everyday commerce. For example, a partnership with Stripe enables shared payment tokens to be used by Stripe-connected sellers. Analyst Sentiment and Stock VolatilityGiven the company’s prospects, analysts are broadly bullish, rating the stock a Moderate Buy. Of 28 firms covering Affirm, 19 rate it a Buy and nine rate it a Hold. The 12-month target ranges from $55 to $110, with an average target of $85 per share—nearly double the current market price. That said, the current price remains far below levels reached during past periods of enthusiasm. The stock is down more than one-third from where it traded five years ago, shortly after its IPO, and it has fallen again—roughly 40%—since the start of this year. Those kinds of swings can create opportunities but also indicate continued volatility. Credit Risks and Competitive PressureWhile revenue and profits look strong, investing in a company like Affirm involves meaningful risk. Credit markets are generally jittery, and Affirm’s delinquency rates and provisions for credit losses have risen. Affirm is effectively a lender, and if the economy softens and consumers struggle to repay, loan losses could climb and profit margins could compress. Unlike long-established banks with decades of credit-cycle experience, Affirm is still operating in a relatively young category. Competition is also stiff. PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL), Klarna (NYSE: KLAR), Afterpay and major banks are all pushing installment-payment products. Affirm’s partnerships help defend its position, but they also create the risk of losing a major partner—Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT), for example, shifted its primary BNPL relationship to Klarna last year. Such moves can hit volume and revenue quickly. Notably, CEO Max Levchin has sold more than $110 million in company shares since September 2025. Nearly half of that occurred in January, when the stock traded above $80 per share. The significance of these sales is unclear—insider sales can happen for many reasons—but investors should monitor insider activity. There are no records of recent significant insider purchases. Overall, Affirm fits in the high-risk, high-reward portion of a diversified portfolio that includes the financial services sector. The growth story is intact, profitability is improving, and the partnership strategy is building scale. It could be an attractive play for investors focused on digital payments and consumer lending over the long term—or for those willing to chase rallies. Either way, prospective investors should weigh the upside against the credit, competitive, and execution risks before starting a position. |
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