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Exclusive Article
The Trade Desk: Down 75%, But a Reversal May Be NearReported by Sam Quirke. First Published: 4/25/2026. 
Key Points
- Shares of The Trade Desk have collapsed more than 75% since last summer, and sentiment has fallen close to rock bottom.
- The stock’s short interest is now above 11%, creating the conditions for a potential squeeze if momentum can flip.
- With earnings fast approaching and expectations low, the risk-reward setup is looking unusually attractive.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
Shares of The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) trade around $23 after bouncing off the $20 level earlier this month. While that rebound is encouraging, it barely scratches the surface of the losses the stock has suffered in recent months. The shares remain down about 75% from their 52-week high last August and nearly 85% since December 2024, making this one of the more severe downtrends among large-cap names right now.
For existing shareholders it’s been a painful ride. For investors on the sidelines, however, the setup is starting to shift from painful to interesting. The big question: is this a short-term bounce or the early stage of something more meaningful? There are several reasons to think it might be the latter, so let’s take a closer look. A Perfect Storm of Negative SentimentThe biggest driver of the downtrend has been concerns around artificial intelligence and the potential disruption it could bring to parts of the digital advertising ecosystem. While The Trade Desk is a major player in programmatic ads, it doesn't have the scale or resources of giants such as Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) to absorb or counteract that disruption. Company-specific issues have added pressure more recently. Questions about fees charged to some of The Trade Desk’s largest clients have surfaced, and broader macro headwinds—including geopolitical tensions (including those involving Iran)—have weighed on advertising budgets and prompted lower earnings forecasts. The result is prolonged negative sentiment, which helps explain why TTD has erased essentially all of its gains from the past six years. Extreme Bearishness Is Creating OpportunityIt’s understandable that The Trade Desk is now one of the most heavily shorted large-cap stocks, with more than 11% of the float sold short. That heavy short interest is also what makes the setup interesting. High short interest alone doesn't guarantee a squeeze, but it creates the potential for one if the underlying narrative shifts. Look at Avis Budget Group (NASDAQ: CAR)—its short-squeeze-fueled 584% run this month illustrates that potential. At the same time, expectations for The Trade Desk have been reset to very low levels. Combine that with a valuation that is becoming more attractive, and the potential downside looks limited relative to the upside. Recent analyst sentiment is tilting positive. UBS Group reiterated its Buy rating this week with a $31 price target, implying roughly 30% upside from current levels. More broadly, the consensus price target points to over 78% potential upside over the next year. Importantly, a meaningful upward move would also help break the multi-month downtrend that has been in place. Early Signs of a Technical TurnTechnically, there are signs selling pressure on TTD is easing. So far this year the stock has shown a willingness to hold the $20 level, which is developing into a key support zone. At the same time, its Relative Strength Index is rebounding from extremely oversold territory, suggesting aggressive selling may be fading. This price action often signals quiet accumulation, where buyers step in before broader sentiment shifts. It's still early, but bulls will be watching closely. If TTD can build on this bounce and avoid slipping below $20 ahead of next month’s earnings report, the move could gain traction. Earnings Could Be the CatalystOne thing to watch heading into the company’s Q1 2026 report: The Trade Desk has posted headline beats in each of the last three quarters, suggesting the business may be holding up better than the stock price implies. If that trend continues, it could force some short sellers to reassess. Even modestly better-than-expected results could prompt covering, which would push the stock higher and potentially force additional short-covering. That said, given the risks already outlined, it's prudent not to get ahead of the report. If The Trade Desk disappoints or reinforces concerns about growth, the downtrend could resume. But after the share price has already given up so much ground, the risk/reward appears tilted in the bulls' favor. |
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