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AST SpaceMobile's Brazil Breakthrough Could Set the Stage for a Q3 Stock Rebound
Written by Jessica Mitacek on November 3, 2026
Key Points
- AST SpaceMobile received Brazilian regulatory authorization from Anatel and signed deals with four regional operators to expand satellite-based cellular service.
- The company is set to report third-quarter earnings on Nov. 9, with analysts expecting a loss of 42 cents per share and sharp revenue growth.
- Analysts hold a consensus Hold rating on ASTS despite a price target implying over 120% upside, while high short interest and volatility remain risks.
- Special Report: Why This Microcap Holds One of the Largest Uranium Deposits
On Monday, Oct. 26, space-based cellular broadband network provider AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) announced that it received regulatory authorization from Brazil's telecommunications authority, Anatel, to support its planned expansion of satellite-based cellular services into the country.
Additionally, AST SpaceMobile signed agreements with four regional mobile network operators and unveiled plans to install ground infrastructure in the country to support direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity for more than 200 million mobile handset lines across Brazil.
The news comes one week after the company announced that it is advancing service readiness in key global markets, including the United States, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia, as it ramps up for commercial services before the end of 2026.
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Brazil Spectrum Approval Advances AST SpaceMobile's Global Expansion
The regulatory approval represents another milestone in AST SpaceMobile's global expansion. Anatel's authorization covers 30 MHz of S-band spectrum for the company's planned services in Brazil, as well as secondary use of up to 10+10 MHz of spectrum in the 700 MHz band within the regional operators' respective licensed areas.
Receiving authorization to operate in Brazil represents an enormous opportunity for the company. With a population approaching 215 million across nearly 3.3 million square miles, coverage gaps are a persistent issue in the country, which AST SpaceMobile's technology could help alleviate by enabling voice calls, broadband data, and video streaming directly on standard, unmodified smartphones.
CEO Abel Avellan said of the authorization that Brazil’s ambition for connectivity matches the scale of the country, adding that AST SpaceMobile is bringing together the spectrum, operator relationships and ground infrastructure to deliver a third layer of connectivity across the country.
The expansion comes amid intensifying competition in satellite-to-cellular connectivity. On Oct. 8, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) announced an agreement to acquire low-band spectrum from Grain Management, subject to regulatory approval, in a move intended to strengthen Starlink Mobile's connectivity capabilities. The acquisition could pose a competitive threat to satellite connectivity providers and reshape the competitive landscape for space stocks and major telecom companies, including AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ), both strategic partners of AST SpaceMobile.
The Brazil expansion news helped fuel a short-term rally, with ASTS shares climbing more than 9% between Oct. 26 and Oct. 29 before giving back some of those gains on Friday. The stock remains down nearly 50% year to date.
AST SpaceMobile’s Q3 Earnings Are on Deck
The stock’s price reversal comes at an opportune time.
AST SpaceMobile is slated to report Q3 earnings on Monday, Nov. 9, and if the market's reaction to last quarter's results is any indication, the upcoming report could provide another tailwind for shares.
Following its Q2 earnings release on Aug. 10, AST SpaceMobile shares gained more than 8% over the next two trading sessions despite the company missing both earnings and revenue estimates.
That report revealed some troubling issues, as the company acknowledged that spending increased sharply in order to support its BlueBird satellite buildout.
Still, AST SpaceMobile reaffirmed its 2026 full-year revenue outlook and reported a backlog of about $1.3 billion, keeping its long-term growth thesis intact.
But the earnings miss was the company’s sixth in a row. Since its IPO in April 2021, AST SpaceMobile has surpassed consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates only four times, the last of which was in Q2 2024. In addition, revenue has fallen short of estimates in seven of the last eight quarters.
For Q3, analysts expect a loss of 42 cents per share, and revenue of $45.73 million—a more than 210% year-over-year increase from the $14.74 million revenue in Q3 2025, highlighting the rapid revenue expansion analysts anticipate as AST SpaceMobile scales its operations.
Supporting that growth is the company's expanding network of strategic partnerships, which now includes more than 60 agreements with a combined reach of approximately 3 billion mobile subscribers.
Those strategic agreements include pacts with communication services sector mainstays AT&T, Verizon, Tokyo-based Rakuten (OTCMKTS: RKUNY), Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD), real estate investment trust American Tower (NYSE: AMT), and the U.S. federal government.
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Analysts See More Than 120% Upside, But Risks Remain
Of the 14 analysts currently covering ASTS, just six assign the stock a Buy rating despite an average price target suggesting around 120% potential upside.
Overall, ASTS receives a consensus Hold rating.
Current short interest of more than 21% of the float—representing 65.9 million shares sold short as of Oct. 15—serves as another cautionary tale for investors.
So does the stock’s inherent volatility.
With a beta of 2.88, ASTS has historically exhibited substantially greater sensitivity to broad-market movements than the average stock, which has been on full display this year and is likely to continue through the remainder of 2026.
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