New Video From Don
| | | | Don Kaufman here. | Earlier today I had an opportunity to talk shop with Schwab's Trading 360 show, and I wanted to share the three trades I laid out - because honestly, I think the market's giving us some gift-wrapped opportunities right now. | Look, I live on an island most of the year, and I just got back this past weekend. One of the first places I hit? Costco. Which brings me to my first trade. | Fading Costco's Bounce Back to Reality | Everyone's celebrating Costco's recovery from that brutal slide - we're talking 924 all the way back above 960. But here's the thing: this bounce is exactly why I'm stepping in on the short side. | I'm looking at October 17th expiration, buying the 905 puts, selling the 895 puts for a $3 debit. It's a $10 wide spread with $7 of upside. | Why? | The consumer's getting called into question on high-ticket items. Tariffs are going to hit those big purchases, and people are hesitating. You may see same-store sales coming soft in the coming months as folks say "let's see how this plays out." | The downside trend is still intact. This rally? Perfect entry point for shorts. | Bond Vigilantes Are Back - And I'm Selling Treasuries | Here's my most contrarian call: I'm selling 30-year Treasury futures outright. No options play this time - straight futures. | Everyone's focused on technicals, but I'm looking at the fundamentals screaming at us. | Bond vigilantes aren't done. | You've got the administration influencing the BLS - that firing is calling data integrity into question. Higher rates for longer are crushing the Treasury's debt load. | And we haven't even talked about foreign sovereigns potentially selling Treasuries in retaliation for tariff policies. | The bond market's been pushed down from resistance at 11510 repeatedly over the past few months. Every time we get above that level, the vigilantes come for it. I think this time's no different. | Boeing's 70% Rally Has Run Its Course | This one might sound crazy - shorting Boeing after a 70% run from April lows. But hear me out. | Even with strikes and questionable headlines, this stock has been absolutely spectacular. That's exactly why I think it's running out of gas. | I'm using September 5th expiration - buying 230 puts, selling 225 puts for a $210 debit. It's what we call an in-out spread. | I'm not looking for a major pullback, just fading this most recent bounce following earnings. Sometimes the best trades are the simplest ones. | Why I'm Comfortable Taking the Other Side | These trades all share something: I'm betting against recent optimism where I see structural pressure building underneath. | Whether it's consumer hesitation, Treasury market dynamics, or momentum exhaustion - I'm positioning where enthusiasm might be getting ahead of reality. | Want to see exactly how I'm structuring these trades and the technical levels I'm watching? | Watch my Schwab segment here. | To your success, | Don Kaufman | | |
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