Ticker Reports for August 21st
3 Fast Food Stocks Defying the Odds
Earnings from Q2 are in, and fast food continues to fade from American eaters' appetites. For most of the post-pandemic era, fast-casual establishments have been stealing market share from Quick-Serve Restaurants (QSRs), and that trend accelerated again in Q2.
Consumers are demanding more bang for their buck after years of elevated inflation, and fast food is failing to provide a decent value proposition. However, not every QSR is getting left in the dust. A few actually posted encouraging Q2 numbers with strong same-store sales growth, and today, we’ll examine what three of these restaurants are doing to fend off the fast casual attack.
Shifting Consumer Trends Leaving Fast Food Restaurants Behind
Fast, affordable, and healthy have become the three pillars of the American restaurant goer, and that third item is starting to shift the landscape. Health-conscious diners are watching what they eat more than ever, and that’s an issue for QSRs like McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) and Wendy’s Co. (NASDAQ: WEN), where calories and prices continue to increase. Fast casual can offer a more diverse set of dining options, including customizable menu choices, a better in-store experience, and the ability to order takeout or delivery.
Full-service restaurants are also closing the traffic gap on QSRs, but lower ticket sizes are blunting some of that progress. It’s the fast-casual segment that’s growing at a robust rate, and QSRs are trying to copy some of their popular trends to lure in new customers, such as:
- Loyalty programs to entice repeat business
- A unique and satisfying store experience, even if the visits are brief and convenient
- Healthy menu options that don’t sacrifice flavor or presentation
- Customizable dining choices with takeout and delivery
Despite these shifting trends, QSRs still represent 80% of total restaurant transaction volume, so there’s plenty of revenue available for the companies that capitalize on consumer preferences. The three companies we’ll highlight below have plans to navigate these shifting seas, plus the results to back up their business models.
3 Fast Food Stocks Bucking the Trend
As we highlighted last month, restaurants that adapt to changing preferences are stealing market share from their competition. These three QSRs are instituting loyalty programs, enhancing the customer in-store experience, and adding new and unique menu items—and their stocks are reaping the benefits in the restaurant sector.
Dutch Bros: Capitalizing on Starbucks’ Weakness
The new kid in town, Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE: BROS), is putting up some impressive numbers, including 6% same-store sales growth in Q2. The upstart coffee chain is also rapidly expanding in the U.S., and its stock finally broke through the post-IPO high it notched during the last public offering boom in 2021. Revenue growth surged for BROS in Q2 2025, expanding 28% to $415 million.
The EPS figure also beat analysts’ expectations, and the company raised its full-year guidance to a range of $1.59 billion to $1.60 billion in revenue. Dutch Bros is stealing share from competitors like Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) through its unique in-store experience and community-based marketing.
The company’s coffee slingers are called Broistas and are instructed to create a welcoming environment through upbeat conversations with customers, like remembering the names and orders of regulars. Dutch Bros is also constantly updating its menu, adding seasonal drinks or limited-time-only options to encourage return visits and enhance the ‘Instagrammability’ of its offerings.
The company opened 31 new stores in Q2, and its loyalty program has reached 70% adoption.
Yum Brands: Taco Bell Capturing Younger Clientele with Unique Promotions
Yum Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) is the parent of Taco Bell, KFC, and Pizza Hut. While the latter two chains struggle for relevance, Taco Bell's YUM shares have been buoyed by its leaning into Gen Z trends through wacky promotions, specialty menu items, and digital optimization.
Taco Bell’s marketing campaigns are built around influencers, social media, and SEO advertising, such as the successful ‘Live Mas’ campaign and the $5 box deal.
Appealing to a younger clientele requires marketing savvy and a product that backs up the hype, and Taco Bell’s 4% same-store sales growth in Q2 is evidence of this success. At the same time, the company’s biggest competitor, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG), saw same-store sales decline 4%.
Chicken sales at Taco Bell are up 50%, and the company’s digital outreach is paying dividends with $6 billion in digital sales, a year-over-year (YOY) growth rate of 32%. Despite the struggles of KFC and Pizza Hut, YUM shares are up over 11% year-to-date (YTD).
Domino’s Pizza: Efficiency and Loyalty Programs Creating Frequent Customers
Shares of Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NASDAQ: DPZ) have corrected in the last month, but this could be a good buying opportunity for new investors. The company has conquered churning customer trends, and its loyalty programs and impressive efficiency are creating clients who return for pizza every Friday night.
Domino’s saw same-store sales growth of 3.4% in Q2, but the company missed EPS projections due to foreign currency headwinds, which caused consternation amongst investors, and the stock dropped 10% in the month following the report.
But Domino’s digital footprint continues to expand, and the company’s rewards program grew to nearly 36 million members last year. Domino’s isn’t just a pizza chain now; they’re a pizza-selling logistics company with a knack for turning infrequent guests into weekly visitors.
Now that the integration with DoorDash Inc. (NASDAQ: DASH) is complete, the company expects comps to grow in the second half of 2025.
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3 Energy Stocks That Could Rally If the Oil Bears Are Wrong
The recent decision by the OPEC+ nations to increase oil production is amplifying concerns about an oversupplied market. Adding to that belief is the growing hope that a peace deal, or at least a ceasefire, will be reached between Russia and Ukraine.
This macroeconomic story is the main reason energy stocks continue to be one of the worst-performing sectors. Oil stocks, in particular, have failed to rally despite steady cash generation.
However, the bear case for oil may now be too crowded. A closer look suggests demand is being underestimated, which could flip the script for energy stocks. That would make buying into this sector now a move that could pay off well in late 2025 and into 2026. Some of the best stocks to own are also considered the best-in-class.
The Bull Case for Higher Oil Prices
First, there’s the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch tool places the probability for a 25 basis point (0.25%) interest rate cut at 83.2%. Even if that’s the only cut in 2025, it would likely be enough to spur an increase in industrial activity, travel, and freight, all of which are bullish for oil.
Second, while the growth of data centers is part of the demand story, residential demand, in the form of electricity and heating fuels, shouldn’t be overlooked. Residential demand for electricity and heating fuels is sticky and seasonal. In some regions, oil-fired generation still plays a role, which means this consumption is less elastic than markets assume.
Third, the OPEC+ nations have been non-committal about supply increases after September. Tightening supply could also spur higher oil prices.
Finally, with or without a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the market is likely to have geopolitical risks that could be present longer than expected. These include the possibility of higher tariffs on nations such as India.
A Test of Permian Growth and Refining Resilience
Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) stock is up 7.7% in 2025 after a 9.9% increase since hitting a 52-week low in April. One reason for the recent change in sentiment is that the company's merger with Hess Co. (NYSE: HES) is now complete. This will give Chevron exposure to Guyana’s world-class oil reserves.
However, Chevron's key growth driver will continue to be its production in the Permian Basin. The company currently generates volumes between 800,000 and 850,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). Chevron continues to become more capital efficient with its assets in the basin, which it views as a key part of its growth story.
The Chevron analyst forecasts on MarketBeat give CVX stock a consensus price target of $164.11, an upside of 5%. However, several analysts have increased their price targets above the consensus price since the company’s earnings report on Aug. 1.
Turning Oil Demand Into LNG and Guyana Cash Flow
The Permian Basin is also a key part of Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) bull case. Since completing its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in 2024, the company has been the largest single operator in the region, generating approximately 1.6 million to 1.8 million boe/d per day. Exxon Mobil plans to increase that volume to approximately two million boe/d by 2027.
However, beyond the Permian, higher oil prices are likely to bring better LNG prices and a faster payback from its Guyana operations.
XOM stock is down approximately 0.75% in 2025, and despite a spike in April 2025, it has been trading in a range. Analysts have a consensus price of $125.84, which provides a 17% upside in addition to a dividend that pays a 3.71% yield.
A High-Beta Play on a Long-Cycle Upturn
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) is a solid choice for investors looking for more risk-reward in the oil sector. Oilfield services stocks like Schlumberger are more volatile than the integrated majors, but they also offer greater upside if demand surprises.
That’s particularly true of Schlumberger, which relies on projects that run over several years. If demand surprises to the upside, SLB’s international backlog could unlock the strongest high-beta gains in the sector.
The company provides the “picks and shovels” that upstream oil producers need in their operations. Demand was strong in 2024 but has not kept pace in 2025, reflected in the SLB stock price, which is down 12.8% in 2025.
However, the analyst forecasts on MarketBeat have a consensus price target of $49.28 on SLB stock, an increase of over 47%.
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Tilray's High Hopes: The Catalyst Driving Cannabis Stocks
A fairly consistent climb in Tilray Brands' (NASDAQ: TLRY) stock price has started to capture the market's attention. After touching a 52-week low of 35 cents, the stock has rallied dramatically, climbing over 133% in the last three months on massive trading volume.
This move up, however, is not a simple reaction to the company's latest earnings report; it goes much deeper. While Tilray did post a surprise adjusted profit of 2 cents per share in its fourth quarter 2025 earnings report, that was set against a staggering GAAP net loss of $2.18 billion for the fiscal year.
Instead, the rally over the past three months seems to be a signal that investors are beginning to make a calculated, high-stakes bet on a single, sector-transforming catalyst: a pending decision from the U.S. government to reclassify cannabis, a move that could fundamentally rewrite the industry's financial future.
Rescheduling: A Tax Revolution for U.S. Cannabis
The market's anticipation centers on the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) potentially moving cannabis from its current status as a Schedule I substance to Schedule III. On paper, this is a regulatory shift; in practice, it is a financial revolution for the industry.
Currently, cannabis shares a Schedule I classification with drugs like heroin, a category defined by a high potential for abuse and "no currently accepted medical use." A move to Schedule III would officially recognize its medical applications and lower its perceived risk.
However, this change's most critical consequence is its effect on Section 280E of the U.S. tax code.
This prohibitive rule prevents any business handling Schedule I substances from deducting normal operating expenses from its gross income. For a state-legal U.S. cannabis operator, this means essential costs like payroll, rent, utilities, and marketing cannot be used to lower their taxable income.
This results in punishingly high effective tax rates that can exceed 70%, impeding their ability to generate profit and reinvest in their businesses.
Rescheduling cannabis would eliminate the 280E burden overnight, instantly improving the financial viability of every U.S. operator and making the entire cannabis sector profoundly more attractive for investment.
Why Investors Are Choosing Tilray
While the direct tax benefits of rescheduling would apply to U.S. operators, Tilray has become the market's preferred vehicle to trade this catalyst. This is due to a unique convergence of market access, strategic positioning, and financial stability.
- Accessibility and Liquidity: With a market capitalization of $1.17 billion, Tilray is easily traded by a global pool of investors. Its high average daily trading volume, often exceeding 40 million shares, allows for the efficient movement of capital, a feature that many U.S. multi-state operators that trade over-the-counter (OTC) cannot offer.
- The U.S. Optionality Strategy: A financially healthier U.S. cannabis market directly increases the value of Tilray’s long-term growth plan. The company has strategically built a U.S. infrastructure through its beverage alcohol segment, now the 5th largest craft brewer in the nation with $240.6 million in annual revenue, and its wellness division, which brought in $60.5 million. This platform is designed to serve as a springboard for THC products as soon as federal laws permit, creating a halo effect where a stronger U.S. market amplifies Tilray's future potential.
- A De-Risked Vehicle: In a sector known for high debt, Tilray presents a more stable profile. The company holds over $256 million in cash and has made approximately $100 million in debt repayments, strengthening its balance sheet. This stability, combined with a high short interest of over 17% of the float, also makes it a focal point for volatility, attracting traders betting on a potential short squeeze if a positive announcement is made.
Where Strategy Meets Speculation
The market's enthusiasm for Tilray represents a moment where a powerful external catalyst is amplifying the value of the company’s internal business strategy. While the current Wall Street consensus remains a Hold, the average analyst price target of $1.92 suggests a significant upside from its current level, reflecting the potential impact of a favorable regulatory outcome.
This optimistic sentiment is mirrored by those closest to the company. Recent filings show that CEO Irwin D. Simon and CFO Carl A. Merton have been purchasing shares on the open market, investing their personal capital and signaling strong conviction in the company’s direction.
Ultimately, Tilray's stock has become a primary barometer for U.S. cannabis reform. The recent rally is fueled by anticipation but is grounded in a catalyst with the potential for fundamental, industry-wide financial transformation.
The final decision from the DEA remains the key variable that will determine whether this powerful momentum is sustained and converted into long-term shareholder value.
REVEALED FREE: Our three TOP stocks of 2025 are …
REVEALED FREE: Our three TOP stocks of 2025 are …
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