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These 3 Defensive Stocks Could Help Portfolios Weather a 2026 Downturn
Authored by Chris Markoch. Article Published: 1/12/2026.
Summary
- Recession risk is rising in 2026, making a defensive portfolio shift a smart way to manage downside without abandoning opportunity.
- Some growth businesses still offer protection by being deeply embedded in daily operations, creating durable demand even in slower economies.
- Essential consumer demand and life-event-driven revenue can provide stability, income, and resilience when economic conditions weaken.
Making economic forecasts is difficult at any time. Yet despite unprecedented access to data, uncertainty feels greater than ever. For example, in December 2025 many leading financial firms expressed a positive outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026.
One notable exception was JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). JPMorgan Global Research puts the probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2026 at roughly 35%, citing sticky inflation and a cooling labor market.
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Last week's jobs report supported that view, and recent CPI and PPI readings are likely to reinforce concerns about persistent inflation. JPMorgan reports earnings on Jan. 13, when chief executive officer Jamie Dimon will likely add more color to the firm's outlook.
To be fair, this isn't the first time Dimon has warned about recession risks in recent years. Still, his comments merit attention: the economy is like a doctor's visit that's "mostly good" on the surface but flags a few issues that could cause trouble if left unaddressed.
Put another way, Dimon is acting as the Ghost of Christmas Future — not predicting a definitive outcome, but illustrating what could happen if the U.S. stays on its current course.
That's the downside. It doesn't necessarily mean you should avoid growth stocks, especially in technology, but it may make sense to add a defensive sleeve to part of your portfolio as a hedge. Here are three stocks that fit that description.
Growth Meets Defense: A Tech Company Embedded in Enterprise
At first glance Microsoft may not seem defensive. But Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) combines growth with many defensive characteristics: its products and services function like an operating system for enterprise customers.
From cloud computing (Azure) and productivity software (Teams) to generative and agentic AI tools like Copilot, Microsoft is deeply embedded with customers. That creates sticky, growing revenue and earnings and raises switching costs.
MSFT is down roughly 6% since November 2025 amid concerns about returns on its AI infrastructure spending. Goldman Sachs recently pushed back on those worries, assigning a Buy rating and citing Microsoft's potential to benefit from "compounding AI product cycles."
MSFT has a consensus price target of $630.37, about 31% above its price at the time of writing, making it an appealing buy‑the‑dip candidate.
A Defensive Trade With Income and Innovation Potential
General Mills (NYSE: GIS) is closer to what investors typically think of as a defensive stock. The consumer staples giant makes household-name products found in many homes.
GIS is down more than 25% over the past 12 months, and its five‑year total return sits around –4.09%. That performance comes despite a dividend whose yield has risen to roughly 5.6% as the share price weakened.
Defensive consumer staples have lagged as investors rotated from the meme‑stock mania of 2020–21 into the AI growth trade, leaving companies like General Mills behind.
The company expects revenue and earnings to soften in 2026, but it is investing in innovation and marketing to support future growth — a combination that can appeal to investors seeking both income and stability.
Real Estate Resilience: Profiting From Life-Event Demand
Dividend-paying stocks are often defensive, which makes real estate investment trusts (REITs) such as Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) attractive. Public Storage focuses on self-storage units, a business driven more by life events than by the broader economic cycle.
If the economy weakens, life events like downsizing, job changes and relocations can increase demand for storage. REITs like Public Storage also benefit from pricing power that helps protect margins, and the company has one of the stronger balance sheets in the sector.
PSA is down about 3% over the past 12 months but has surged in early 2026. Analysts see roughly 13% upside, and the stock offers a dividend yield near 4.12% — about $12 per share annually — providing income alongside potential capital appreciation.
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