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After Cooling Off, On Holding May Be Ready to Sprint Higher

Written by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 3/6/2026.

Key Points

On Holding’s Q4 2025 results showed strong, broad-based growth across channels, categories, and regions.
Fiscal 2026 guidance came in light, but analysts largely view it as conservative and still expect outperformance.
Analyst sentiment and institutional activity suggest support near key technical levels and potential upside.
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On Holding's (NYSE: ONON) share price has struggled amid fears of slowing growth, valuation concerns, and the impact of tariffs, but the selling appears to be winding down. Q4 2025 results were strong, with growth holding up across channels and categories. While 2026 guidance came in below consensus, the company still forecasts another solid year, and analysts expect outperformance.

The analysts' response suggests the guidance miss may have been deliberate; On has a history of setting conservative targets that it then easily surpasses. As currently issued, the company expects to sustain a ~20%+ growth pace in the coming year, driven by strength across segments and retail categories.

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The impact on sentiment has been limited. Data from MarketBeat shows coverage rising and sentiment firming, with 25 analysts following the stock and an 84% Buy-side bias toward the Moderate Buy rating. The consensus price target remains bullish and steady despite the March revisions, implying roughly 40% upside from a key support area — the long-term exponential moving average near $41.30, where the stock has previously found support.

Support is evident in both analyst trends and institutional activity. Coverage and price targets have increased alongside rapidly growing institutional holdings. Institutions accumulated ONON stock in three of the four quarters in 2025 and again during the first two months of Q1 2026, ramping activity to record highs even as the share price retreated. That accumulation points to a solid support base and a tailwind that could lift the market over time. The primary question is timing; the rebound could begin before mid-year. If guidance proves conservative, the next visible catalyst is mid-May, when Q1 2026 results are released.

On Holdings Tanks on Robust Results and Growth Outlook

On Holdings' Q4 was as strong as they come: revenue rose roughly 34%, slightly ahead of consensus. The strength was broad-based — wholesale revenue increased about 31% while higher-margin direct-to-consumer (DTC) rose about 30%. Core shoe sales were up 21%, apparel rose 38%, and accessories jumped 117%. Regionally, Asia-Pacific (APAC) led with an 85% increase, followed by a 21.3% rise in the Americas and a modest 2.5% gain in EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa).

The margin picture is mixed but ultimately constructive. The company recorded a significant, but smaller-than-expected, decline in net income margin due to aggressive investment and foreign-exchange (FX) headwinds. That was offset by record gross margins and a 31.8% increase in EBITDA. The market reaction in early March centered on guidance coming in below expectations, which stoked concerns about slower growth and margin pressure across the retail sector.

On Holdings Builds Value for Investors

There are no red flags on the On Holdings balance sheet. The company is well-capitalized and maintains net cash relative to debt. Shareholders' equity rose about 17% in 2025 and is expected to continue growing. On has not yet returned capital to investors, preferring to reinvest in growth, but it appears positioned to begin returning capital in coming years.

Key 2026 catalysts include strong apparel demand that supports revenue durability and margins, an emphasis on DTC channels, and improving brand awareness. On leverages partnerships with top athletes and its premium positioning to create targeted marketing that resonates with consumers. DTC is a double-edged sword: it can boost growth and margins but also risk alienating wholesale partners, as Nike's (NYSE: NKE) experience illustrates. Other risks include FX headwinds and the potential for slowing growth.

Price action has been choppy since the release. The earnings announcement triggered a sharp sell-off, which in turn attracted buyers and produced heavy demand. Trading since then has shown resistance near the short-term 30-day exponential moving average (EMA), which could limit near-term gains. Over the longer term, ONON appears positioned to rebound and could accelerate higher once that reversal begins.

CrowdStrike Beats, But AI Concerns Persist

Written by Chris Markoch. Date Posted: 3/4/2026.

Key Points

CrowdStrike earnings topped estimates, driven by strong ARR growth, but guidance was largely in line.
Investors remain cautious about how agentic AI could pressure software pricing models.
CRWD stock is attempting a technical recovery but remains below key moving averages.
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CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) ticked higher on March 4 — the day after it reported earnings — building on prior momentum.

The stock received a pre-earnings lift after the United States and Israel began military operations involving Iran. From the opening of trading on March 2 to the close on March 3, CRWD rose roughly 6% amid volatile trading. The move tracked broader strength in defense and cybersecurity names. Since the conflict began, voices including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon have warned of an elevated threat of cyberattacks in the United States.

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That threat is hardly new to corporations or consumers. Cybercrime is projected to cost businesses more than $10 trillion in 2026, up from about $6 trillion in 2021. That estimate could prove understated if analysts' concerns about agentic AI materialize.

Earnings and Guidance Were Solid, But Confirmed Concerns

CrowdStrike reported a solid earnings result after the market closed on March 3. The numbers were not eye-popping but did post modest beats on both the top and bottom lines.

Revenue of $1.31 billion exceeded the $1.30 billion consensus. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.12, beating expectations of $1.10. The quarter also set records for net new annual recurring revenue (ARR), operating income, and free cash flow.

Those metrics matter for a business like CrowdStrike, where investors focus heavily on recurring revenue quality. Ending ARR reached $5.25 billion, up 24% year-over-year, while net new ARR jumped 47% to $331 million.

CrowdStrike expects first-quarter revenue of $1.36 billion to $1.364 billion and first-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.06 to $1.07. For fiscal 2027, it projects revenue of $5.87 billion to $5.93 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.78 to $4.90 per share.

The guidance was essentially in line with analyst expectations — enough to satisfy, but perhaps not sufficient to quiet skeptics raising broader structural questions about AI and pricing.

Agentic AI: Friend or Foe?

From November through January, investor concern about CRWD — like many technology stocks — centered largely on valuation. Since then, a new worry has surfaced. As agentic AI expands, analysts are increasingly focused on how software pricing models might be disrupted, particularly for companies that trade at premium valuations.

The concern is straightforward: if AI agents can automate threat detection and response tasks that once required expensive, layered software subscriptions, enterprises may buy fewer modules or push back on pricing. That risk is especially salient for CrowdStrike, which commands a notable revenue-per-customer premium built on its expanding Falcon platform.

Why AI Could Expand Cybersecurity Demand and Strengthen CrowdStrike's Platform

The bearish AI argument, while valid as a long-term risk, may be premature. The World Economic Forum expects cybersecurity spending to reach $520 billion by the end of 2026 — more than double the level from five years earlier. The threat landscape is evolving, and AI is both an accelerant for attackers and a force multiplier for defenders.

That dynamic highlights where CrowdStrike's architecture can be an advantage. The Falcon platform was built AI-native from the ground up, positioning it differently from legacy vendors that are retrofitting AI into existing products. The company's Charlotte AI and AgentWorks capabilities are designed to automate detection and response at the speed and scale modern enterprises require, including protections for AI agents themselves against adversarial exploitation.

The platform's breadth also helps. Fifty percent of subscription customers now use six or more modules, 34% use seven or more, and 24% use eight or more. That level of consolidation creates meaningful switching costs that simple pricing pressure is unlikely to unravel.

CrowdStrike's Falcon Flex program, which lets customers shift ARR across modules as needs evolve, has been effective at driving adoption. The company reports more than 1,600 Flex customers and $1.69 billion in ending ARR from Flex accounts, up more than 120% year-over-year. Gross retention held at 97% across all four quarters of fiscal 2026, underscoring that customers are staying even in a cautious spending environment.

Technical Outlook for CRWD Stock

The consensus price target for CRWD stock as of this writing is $508.85, implying roughly 27% upside. Analysts remain broadly bullish, though many trimmed their targets after the report.

In the short term, the technical picture remains challenged. CRWD is trading near $397, well below both its 50-day moving average near $435 and its 200-day moving average near $469. Both averages are sloping downward, which is a significant headwind for a sustained recovery. The stock likely needs to reclaim the 50-day moving average convincingly before the current trend can be considered anything other than bearish.

The longer-term outlook is more constructive. The $340–$360 zone appears to have established meaningful support. A measured move back toward the $420–$435 range would test the declining 50-day — a reasonable near-term target. A breakout above that level would shift the technical narrative considerably. For now, CRWD looks like a stock in recovery mode: the worst may be behind it, but patience is required before the trend turns decisively higher.

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