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Is C3.ai Stock Ready to Burn the Bears?
Authored by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Posted: 3/2/2026.
Key Points
- High short interest combined with a solid cash foundation creates a setup where positive news could trigger a rally for shareholders.
- The company is experiencing an increase in bookings from federal and defense agencies, providing a stable foundation of recurring revenue.
- Management has implemented an aggressive restructuring plan designed to reduce expenses and accelerate the path to profitability.
- Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
C3.ai (NYSE: AI) shares have recently pulled back to fresh 52-week lows, trading around $7.75 after a volatile reaction to the company's third-quarter earnings report. For many investors, a waterfall-style decline is a signal to stay away. Experienced and contrarian traders, however, often see these moments differently: extreme pessimism can set the stage for an outsized rebound.
Wall Street has heavily bet against the enterprise software provider, creating a crowded exit. When most market participants are on one side of the boat, a small shift in sentiment can quickly tip the scales. With nearly 40% of the company's float currently sold short, C3.ai has the classic technical setup of a coiled spring.
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The market is effectively pricing the stock for disaster. If the company delivers even modestly positive news — for example, stronger government-contract growth or clearer evidence of cost discipline — it could spark a rapid rally as short sellers are forced to cover.
40 Million Shares Short
To see why a rally could be dramatic, investors should understand how short selling works. Short sellers borrow shares to sell them immediately, hoping to buy them back later at a lower price. C3.ai currently has a short interest of 39.36% of its float.
That represents roughly 40.7 million shares sold short but not yet covered. For context, short interest above 10% is typically considered high; a figure approaching 40% is extreme. It means a large slice of the market is betting the stock will fail, leaving relatively few sellers to drive the price lower. The easiest gains on the short side were likely made during the stock's fall from about $30 to $8.
The key metric to watch is the days-to-cover ratio, which currently stands at 5.6. This estimates how many trading days it would take short sellers to repurchase all borrowed shares based on average daily volume.
A 5.6 days-to-cover ratio is meaningful. If a rally begins, it would take more than a full trading week of average volume for bears to exit their positions. That creates a liquidity crunch: short sellers rushing to buy back shares simultaneously can push the price up sharply. This short squeeze dynamic can produce rapid, sizable gains for bullish investors who are positioned before the move.
Defense and Aerospace Bookings Surge
While many short sellers focus on near-term headwinds in the AI sector, they're underestimating a surge in one of the most stable parts of the economy: the U.S. government. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, C3.ai reported that bookings from federal, defense, and aerospace clients rose 134% year over year.
Government contracts now account for 55% of the company's total bookings — an important counterpoint to the bearish thesis. Unlike many commercial deals that can be paused or canceled in a downturn, government contracts tend to be sticky. Once a defense or intelligence agency integrates software into logistics or operations, they rarely switch providers, creating a durable revenue stream.
C3.ai has won deals with several demanding organizations, validating its platform. Recent agreements include:
- U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA): Deploying enterprise-scale AI to modernize operations.
- NATO Communications and Information Agency: Supporting logistics and decision-making across 32 member states.
- U.S. Department of Energy: Utilizing AI for complex data management.
- Royal Navy: Expanding AI capabilities for defense operations.
- U.S. Intelligence Community: New production deployment agreements.
This growing backlog of government work establishes a more stable revenue floor than many short sellers appear to appreciate. A company that is more than doubling its government business is building recurring revenue that the market may be undervaluing.
Why Bankruptcy Isn't on the Table
Many shorts hope a target will run out of cash and be forced into dilutive financings. C3.ai's balance sheet undermines that narrative: the company holds $621.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities.
That cash gives C3.ai a multi-year runway and the flexibility to navigate near-term challenges without raising capital on unfavorable terms. New CEO Stephen Ehikian, who took the helm about six months ago, has launched an aggressive restructuring prioritizing profitability over growth at all costs. The company is cutting its global workforce by roughly 26%, a move expected to generate $135 million in annualized non-GAAP expense reductions.
While layoffs are difficult, from an investor perspective this right-sizing should reduce cash burn materially. The company is also pivoting toward agentic AI — autonomous agents that can perform complex tasks (for example, managing supply chains or predicting equipment failures) with minimal human oversight. That strategy emphasizes higher-value, higher-margin software applications over bespoke, lower-margin projects.
That combination of cash on hand and cost cuts functions as a bear trap. Short sellers pay to borrow shares of a company with more than $600 million in liquidity that is actively trimming expenses. As cash burn slows and restructuring savings appear in future quarters, the bearish case weakens and shorts may become exposed.
A High-Risk, High-Reward Opportunity
C3.ai has become a battleground stock. Bears have pushed the price to levels that imply deep distress, but the underlying data show accelerating government bookings and significant cost reductions that support the company's viability.
For risk-tolerant investors, the current setup offers asymmetric upside: downside risk appears largely priced in at multi-year lows, backed by a substantial cash position that makes insolvency unlikely. Upside is driven by a large short-interest overhang that could unwind quickly on any positive catalyst.
Investors may want to add C3.ai to their watchlist. A decisive move above the $8.50 to $9.00 range on high volume could indicate a short squeeze is beginning. Aggressive investors might consider starting a position to access the potential upside before sentiment shifts. The fuse is lit — all that's needed is a spark.
After Cooling Off, On Holding May Be Ready to Sprint Higher
Written by Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 3/6/2026.
Key Points
- On Holding’s Q4 2025 results showed strong, broad-based growth across channels, categories, and regions.
- Fiscal 2026 guidance came in light, but analysts largely view it as conservative and still expect outperformance.
- Analyst sentiment and institutional activity suggest support near key technical levels and potential upside.
- Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
On Holding's (NYSE: ONON) share price has struggled amid fears of slowing growth, valuation concerns and the impact of tariffs, but the selling may be coming to an end. Q4 2025 results were strong, with growth holding up across channels and categories. While 2026 guidance fell short of consensus, the company still forecasts another solid year and analysts expect outperformance.
The analysts' response suggests the guidance shortfall was intentional; the company has a record of setting conservative targets and then surpassing them. As it stands, On Holding expects to sustain a solid 20%+ growth pace in the coming year, driven by strengths across segments and retail categories.
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The impact on sentiment trends was minimal. Data from MarketBeat shows coverage rising and sentiment firming, with 25 analysts covering the stock and an 84% Buy-side bias toward the Moderate Buy rating. The price target remains bullish and steady despite the March revisions, implying roughly 40% upside from a key support level. That critical support sits near the long-term exponential moving average around $41.30, where the stock has found support in prior periods.
Support is also visible in analysts' trends and institutional activity. Coverage, price targets and institutional holdings have risen in tandem. Institutions accumulated ONON in three of the four quarters of 2025 and during the first two months of Q1 2026, increasing purchases to record levels even as the price pulled back. That accumulation forms a solid support base and a potential tailwind for future gains. The main question is timing — the rebound could start before midyear. If guidance proves conservative, the next visible catalyst will be mid-May when Q1 2026 earnings are released.
On Holding Tanks Despite Robust Results and Growth Outlook
On Holding's Q4 was as solid as they come, with revenue up about 34% and slightly above consensus. Strength came from a 31% increase in wholesale and a 30% increase in higher-margin direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, supported by 21% growth in core shoe sales, 38% in apparel and 117% in accessories. Regionally, Asia-Pacific (APAC) led with an 85% rise, followed by a 21.3% increase in the Americas and a tepid 2.5% gain in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).
The margin picture is mixed but ultimately constructive for investors. The company recorded a notable — but smaller-than-feared — decline in net income margin due to aggressive investment and foreign exchange (FX) headwinds. That was offset by record gross margins and a 31.8% increase in EBITDA. The share-price drop in early March was driven by guidance that missed some expectations and broader fears of slowing growth and margin plateaus in retail.
On Holding Builds Value for Investors
There are no red flags on the On Holding balance sheet. The company is well-capitalized and net-cash positive. Shareholders' equity rose about 17% in 2025 and is expected to continue growing. Management has prioritized reinvesting for growth rather than returning capital to shareholders so far, but returning capital is on the horizon.
Catalysts for 2026 include strong apparel sales that support revenue durability and margins, continued focus on DTC, and improving brand awareness. On Holding leverages partnerships with top athletes and its premium positioning to build targeted brand narratives that resonate with consumers. DTC is a double-edged sword — it can boost growth and margins while creating friction with wholesale partners, as Nike's experience shows. Other risks include FX headwinds and the potential for slowing growth.
Price action has been mixed since the earnings release. The report triggered a sharp decline that, in turn, spurred buying. Since then, the stock has faced resistance near the short-term 30-day exponential moving average (EMA), which could cap near-term gains. Longer term, ONON looks positioned to rebound and may accelerate higher once that move begins.
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