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Market Crash Warning? Wall Street Veteran Says Mid-March Could Mark a Turning Point
Reported by Bridget Bennett. Originally Published: 3/11/2026.
Key Points
- Marc Chaikin, founder and CEO of Chaikin Analytics, says the midterm year has historically been the weakest phase of the presidential cycle, with peaks often forming in mid-March to early April.
- Even if indexes are near highs, internal weakness in speculative and large-cap tech can show up first and foreshadow broader downside.
- Preparation matters: build cash, trim weak holdings, and watch key technical levels to stay flexible if volatility rises.
- Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
Asked about the market outlook heading into mid-March, Wall Street veteran Marc Chaikin said conditions are unfolding much as he predicted a year ago.
Chaikin, founder and CEO of Chaikin Analytics, has more than 50 years' experience in the stock market and is known for blending fundamental and technical analysis. His warning is rooted in the presidential election cycle, one of the market's longest-tracked seasonal patterns. Historically, he notes, the second year of a presidential term—often called the midterm year—has been the weakest stretch for equities.
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- The second year of the cycle averaged just a 1% gain in the S&P 500.
- The other three years averaged double-digit returns.
- Market peaks during midterm years often occur between mid-March and early April.
That timing window is exactly where the market finds itself now.
Historical patterns don't guarantee future outcomes, but Chaikin says they provide a useful framework for assessing probabilities—especially when other warning signs are emerging.
Markets Trading on Expectations, Not Fundamentals
Recent volatility underscores how sensitive markets have become to headlines and geopolitical developments.
Oil prices rising above $100 per barrel have rekindled fears of accelerating inflation. At the same time, weak employment data suggests the economy may need lower interest rates.
That creates a difficult situation for the Federal Reserve.
Normally, rising inflation would push the Fed to raise rates, while weak employment would argue for cuts. With both pressures occurring simultaneously, the central bank may have limited flexibility.
Geopolitical tensions and rapidly shifting headlines add further uncertainty. Real-time information—often amplified through social media and political messaging—can prompt algorithmic trading systems to react instantly, magnifying short-term market swings.
The result is a market driven more by short-term reactions and uncertainty than by underlying fundamentals.
Weakness Already Appearing Beneath the Surface
Despite recent volatility, the broader market remains relatively close to its highs. The S&P 500 is only about 2% below its peak. For context, a correction is typically defined as a 10%–20% decline, while a bear market generally requires a 20% drop.
However, Chaikin says many popular stocks are already struggling.
Several of the so-called Magnificent Seven—a handful of mega-cap tech leaders—make up roughly one-third of the S&P 500's market value; several are already in steep downtrends. Investors heavily exposed to tech through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or individual holdings like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) may therefore be experiencing losses far larger than the overall index suggests.
Another important signal comes from the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKK), often viewed as a proxy for speculative technology stocks. That fund has fallen around 28% from its October highs, suggesting risk appetite may be fading.
These internal cracks often appear before the broader market begins to decline.
3 Ways Investors Can Protect Their Portfolios
Rather than trying to predict exactly what will happen next, Chaikin emphasizes preparation. If markets move into a correction or bear phase, investors who plan ahead will be better positioned.
1. Raise Cash to a "Sleeping Level"
The first step is simple: raise cash.
Chaikin suggests holding enough cash so you can remain calm if markets decline sharply. For most portfolios, that means keeping roughly 15% to 25% in cash.
The goal isn't to exit the market completely but to create a cushion.
Cash serves two important purposes:
- It reduces emotional pressure during declines.
- It provides dry powder to take advantage of opportunities later.
Investors who stay fully invested during downturns often feel forced to sell at the worst possible moment.
2. Sell Weak Stocks First
If you need cash, a logical place to start is by selling your weakest holdings.
Chaikin recommends trimming stocks that exhibit bearish traits in quantitative models such as the Chaikin Power Gauge, which evaluates companies using 20 fundamental and technical factors.
Stocks already showing bearish signals near market highs are often the most vulnerable during corrections, while stronger areas of the market may remain resilient. Chaikin highlighted several sectors currently demonstrating relative strength, including healthcare; aerospace and defense; energy; and infrastructure tied to data center expansion.
Rather than automatically buying the dip, investors may benefit from focusing on industry groups with strong momentum and fundamentals.
3. Watch Key Technical Levels
Technical indicators can provide early clues about the market's direction.
One widely watched signal is the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500. Many traders view it as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. If the index holds above the 200-day, pullbacks often stay contained. A decisive break below it can signal that selling pressure is widening—and that a routine dip may be turning into something more serious.
Other indicators, such as the VIX volatility index, have already shown spikes in recent sessions. While volatility can create short-term buying opportunities, sustained spikes often accompany periods of market stress.
Why the Best Opportunity May Come Later
Despite the cautious outlook, Chaikin remains optimistic.
Midterm election years have often produced some of the best buying opportunities of the presidential cycle. Markets frequently bottom in late September or early October, after months of volatility, before launching into powerful rallies. In some cases, gains following those lows have averaged more than 40% over the next 15 months.
That's why preparation now can matter more than prediction.
Investors who maintain cash during volatile periods have the flexibility to act when prices reset. Those who stay fully invested through a sharp downturn may instead be forced to react at exactly the wrong moment.
For now, the market hasn't entered bear territory—but several warning signs are emerging beneath the surface.
With historical patterns pointing to a weaker midterm year and geopolitical uncertainty adding to volatility, this may be a time for investors to strengthen their portfolios rather than chase short-term moves.
If history repeats itself, the turbulence of 2026 may not just test investors' patience—it could ultimately create one of the most attractive buying opportunities of the market cycle.
Atlassian's AI Fear Trade May Be Exhausted—3 Signs Point to a Reversal
Reported by Sam Quirke. Originally Published: 3/8/2026.
Key Points
- Atlassian shares have collapsed nearly 80% over the past year, sending the stock back to 2018 levels despite repeated quarterly earnings beats.
- The appointment of a new CFO with deep industry experience should help reset investor confidence after one of the tech sector’s steepest selloffs.
- Analysts remain extremely bullish, with Piper Sandler recently calling for 160% upside potential.
- Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
Atlassian (NASDAQ: TEAM) has endured one of the most painful declines across the tech space over the past year. Having traded for more than $300 just over a year ago, shares are now trading around $80 after a roughly 75% slide that has sent them back to 2018 levels.
What makes the collapse particularly noteworthy is that it's occurred even as the company has continued to deliver headline beats in its quarterly reports. Revenue growth has remained solid, and the core business continues to expand. Yet the market has grown increasingly concerned that the rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) could make it easy for companies to automate many functions they currently rely on Atlassian's collaboration platform for. This concern has affected many traditional tech companies, but especially Atlassian.
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As we head into the final month of the quarter, early signs of stabilization are emerging. The stock has spent the past fortnight consolidating, and a key leadership change could shift the narrative. Atlassian recently appointed a well-regarded CFO, James Chuong, at a time when sentiment appears as weak as it has been — giving several reasons to think the stock may be approaching a turning point. James Chuong's appointment comes as sentiment appears as bad as it can get, and could help change the story around the stock.
#1: Price Action Is Starting to Improve
After months of relentless selling, the stock has begun to show early signs of stabilization. A decline of roughly 75% is severe by any measure, particularly for a company that remains a core infrastructure provider for software teams worldwide. Atlassian's tools, including Jira and Confluence, remain deeply embedded in the workflows of thousands of companies and are widely considered must-have platforms across many enterprises.
Concerns that AI could erode Atlassian's long-term growth trajectory prompted heavy selling. The pressure became so intense that the stock's relative strength index (RSI), a measure of recent trading momentum, fell to its lowest-ever reading last month.
Since then, the RSI has been steadily climbing out of extremely oversold territory, and the stock has not set a new low since the final week of February. Adding to the sense that a bottom may be forming is a recent bullish crossover in the stock's moving average convergence divergence (MACD) chart.
None of these signals guarantees a recovery, but when they appear together they often suggest the heavy selling pressure that defined the past year may finally be easing.
#2: Analysts Still See Massive Upside
Even as the stock sank to fresh lows last month, many of Wall Street's analysts remained firmly in the bullish camp. Atlassian carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating, and several prominent firms have recently stood by that view. The likes of Citigroup, Baird, and Piper Sandler, to name a few, all reiterated Buy or equivalent ratings in recent weeks, with Piper Sandler's fresh $200 price target implying roughly 160% upside from current levels.
Price targets should never be taken as guarantees, but the gap between analyst expectations and the current share price is hard to ignore. While it is easy for investors to be spooked by the disruptive potential of AI, these analysts appear increasingly confident in Atlassian's ability to navigate the shift successfully.
The appointment of a new CFO is helping to reinforce that confidence. Leadership changes at that level often signal a renewed focus on execution and financial stewardship, both of which Atlassian could benefit from as it heads into the rest of the year.
#3: AI Could Actually Strengthen Atlassian
There is an increasingly credible argument that AI could strengthen Atlassian's platform rather than undermine it.
CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes used last month's earnings call to push back on the narrative that AI could make collaboration platforms like Atlassian obsolete. He argued that as AI accelerates software development, enterprises will need trusted systems even more to organize work, manage data, and coordinate increasingly complex teams.
The company also recently revealed that its Rovo AI offering has already reached over five million monthly active users without significantly increasing costs. That suggests the AI capability could be a revenue enhancer rather than a margin squeezer.
For the company's incoming CFO, who officially joins this month, that dynamic should be encouraging. With the broader platform still growing revenue, successfully leaning into AI at a time when analysts are projecting significant upside could be the combination needed to turn sentiment around and mark the start of Atlassian's recovery.
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