Ticker Reports for March 17th
Conflict Profits: Why These 2 Chemical Stocks Are Suddenly Soaring
A powerful and counterintuitive rally is taking shape in the basic materials sector, signaling a deeper shift that investors are beginning to notice. In early March 2026, the stocks of chemical giants Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) and LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE: LYB) decoupled from their recent performance trends and surged dramatically. On March 12th alone, Dow's shares climbed by more than 9%, while LyondellBasell's stock rose by more than 10%.
This sudden upward momentum came as a surprise to many, especially in the context of the companies' recent challenging earnings reports. In late January 2026, Dow reported a fourth-quarter 2025 loss of 34 cents per share, while LyondellBasell posted a loss of 26 cents per share for the same period.
This divergence between recent fundamentals and current market action points to a powerful external catalyst. This is not a random market fluctuation; it is a direct response to a new geopolitical reality.
Escalating conflict in the Middle East is triggering a significant supply shock across the global chemical market, creating a unique and profitable dynamic. This shift has not gone unnoticed, and major Wall Street firms, led by a pivotal upgrade from Citigroup, are now signaling that a major opportunity is unfolding for these two North American producers.
Turning Global Scarcity Into Domestic Profit
The core of this emerging opportunity lies in how geopolitical events are fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has directly impacted the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for a significant portion of the world's energy and chemical shipments. This disruption is constricting the global supply of key petrochemicals, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), from major production hubs, forcing buyers to scramble for reliable alternatives and driving prices higher. This environment creates a powerful tailwind for producers insulated from logistical chaos.
This is where Dow and LyondellBasell's key structural advantage comes into sharp focus. Their massive production facilities are located primarily on the U.S. Gulf Coast, thousands of miles from the conflict zone, and have operated without interruption. More importantly, they benefit from a crucial difference in their production costs, creating a widening competitive moat.
- The North American Advantage: Dow and LyondellBasell primarily use natural gas liquids (NGLs) as their feedstocks. Thanks to the U.S. shale revolution, NGLs are abundant and relatively low-cost inputs.
- The International Disadvantage: Many of their global competitors, particularly in Europe and Asia, are more reliant on naphtha, a crude oil-derived feedstock.
As geopolitical risk drives crude oil prices higher, with some analysts forecasting a return to $100 per barrel, the production costs for these international rivals soar. This dynamic allows Dow and LyondellBasell to sell their products into a high-priced global market while their own NGL-based cost structure remains largely stable. The result is a direct and powerful pathway to significant profit margin expansion, turning global disruption into a domestic windfall.
Wall Street Signals a Strong Buy
This narrative is now being actively endorsed by Wall Street analysts who are upgrading their ratings.
The most significant catalyst for the recent stock surge was Citigroup's action on March 12, 2026.
Citigroup upgraded both Dow and LyondellBasell from Neutral to Buy, signaling strong conviction.
Alongside the rating change, Citigroup raised its price targets, setting Dow at $40 and LyondellBasell at $76.
Citigroup's analysts noted that the supply disruptions, combined with higher input costs for global competitors, are poised to significantly boost earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for both companies.
The sentiment is spreading. In the same period, Wells Fargo boosted its price target on Dow to $45 and on LyondellBasell to $70.
JPMorgan Chase, Jefferies Financial Group, and the Royal Bank of Canada also issued positive revisions through rating upgrades or increased price targets.
The broader consensus reflects this growing bullishness, with Dow's analyst ratings and LyondellBasell's analyst ratings both showing price targets moving higher across the board.
A Tactical Play With a Defensive Dividend
For investors, the current market dynamics present a compelling, event-driven opportunity. The case for considering Dow and LyondellBasell is a tactical one, aimed at capitalizing on the dual benefits of global scarcity and a superior cost position.
While any investment carries considerations, the factors surrounding these stocks can be viewed through a bullish lens. The recent increase in short interest, for instance, sets the stage for a potential short squeeze. Should the stocks continue their upward trajectory, investors betting against them would be forced to buy shares to cover their positions, potentially accelerating the rally even further. Similarly, recent insider sales can be viewed as logical profit-taking after the stocks' sharp run-up, a move well-balanced by the strong foundation of institutional ownership, which demonstrates long-term confidence from major market players.
Beyond the potential for capital appreciation, both companies offer a steady income stream. Dow's dividend currently yields approximately 3.88%, while LyondellBasell's dividend yields approximately 3.86%. This income component adds a defensive buffer to the investment, offering a paid-to-wait scenario as the geopolitical thesis continues to play out and translate into stronger financial performance. This combination of a clear, catalyst-driven growth story and a reliable dividend payment creates a multifaceted opportunity. While broad market uncertainty persists, the specific and powerful tailwinds from the global chemical squeeze have placed Dow and LyondellBasell in a uniquely advantageous position, making them standout contenders for investor attention in the current environment.
The United States Is Broke
The United States Is Broke
Software Stocks Are Down—Expert Says These 3 Names Still Look Strong
Software stocks have been under pressure, but not every company in the sector deserves to be sold off with the group. In a recent conversation with Kuran Francis of FinTek, the discussion focused on a key shift now reshaping the software landscape: investors are no longer treating AI as an automatic positive for every tech company.
That distinction matters. Some software businesses may become more valuable as AI adoption grows, while others could face real pressure if their products become easier to replace. Francis framed the current moment as one where investors need to separate the software winners from the software losers.
As Francis explained, “the difference between the losers and the winners is only going to get bigger over time.”
In the conversation, three companies stood out as software names that may still have strong upside despite the recent downturn, while one major name landed in the category to avoid.
Why Software Stocks Are Selling Off
On the question of what triggered the broader software weakness, Francis pointed to growing concern that new AI tools are becoming capable enough to replace parts of existing software workflows.
The issue is not simply that AI helps companies work faster. Some tools are now moving closer to doing the work directly, especially in business models built around seat-based pricing. In other words, when a company charges based on how many human users need access, AI may weaken that model if one agent can do work that once required multiple employees.
Francis said the market is beginning to understand that “AI isn’t just going to sort of lift all boats in technology.” That shift in thinking has created a more selective environment for software investors.
The takeaway from the discussion was clear: companies that are directly benefiting from AI demand, or that charge based on usage rather than seats, may be in a much stronger position than the market is currently giving them credit for.
CrowdStrike Still Looks Built for This Environment
The first name Francis highlighted was CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ: CRWD), and the case centered on cybersecurity becoming even more important in an AI-heavy world.
If AI is making it easier for bad actors to launch attacks, demand for advanced security tools should rise. That is one of the reasons Francis believes CrowdStrike may be getting unfairly lumped in with weaker software names.
He noted that hackers are already using generative AI to increase the speed and scale of cyberattacks. Francis pointed to CrowdStrike’s own research showing an increase in AI-enabled threats and zero-day vulnerabilities, reinforcing the idea that cybersecurity demand is likely to remain strong.
Just as important, CrowdStrike is not a company trying to bolt AI onto an old platform. Its system was built around identifying suspicious patterns through machine learning long before AI became the market’s favorite buzzword. That history gives the company a stronger moat than many traditional software providers.
Zscaler Offers Another Cybersecurity Angle
The second bullish software name in the conversation was Zscaler (NASDAQ: ZS), which Francis described as a different kind of cybersecurity play.
If CrowdStrike is focused on identifying and stopping threats, Zscaler is more about controlling access and securing how users and systems connect. That becomes increasingly important as more work moves to the cloud and as AI agents begin interacting with systems directly.
Francis emphasized Zscaler’s role in zero-trust security, where every interaction must be authenticated rather than trusted by default. That framework could become even more valuable as businesses seek to capture the benefits of AI without incurring new operational risks.
He also argued that Zscaler has not received the same AI halo that has helped lift some other names. That may help explain why the stock has not recovered as sharply as some peers, even though its technology is closely tied to the future of AI security.
Datadog May Be the Overlooked Name
The third company was Datadog (NASDAQ: DDOG), which may be the least talked-about name of the group but one Francis views as especially interesting.
Datadog helps companies organize, monitor and make use of their data across applications, infrastructure and security systems. That may not sound flashy, but in an AI economy, good data is foundational.
Francis made the point that better data leads to better AI outcomes. In that sense, Datadog is helping solve one of the hardest and most important problems in enterprise software: making data usable.
He also highlighted a business model advantage. Unlike companies that depend heavily on seat-based pricing, Datadog charges based on usage.
That means whether the customer is a human employee or an AI agent, the company still gets paid.
Francis called the stock “kind of a hidden gem,” arguing that the market may be overlooking how important its role could become as more companies build AI into their operations.
The Software Stock to Avoid
The one name Francis said investors should be cautious with right now was Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE).
The concern is not that Adobe lacks strong products. It is that parts of its business model may be more exposed to AI disruption than investors want to admit. Adobe has long benefited from seat-based pricing, especially in creative software. But if AI tools reduce the need for as many individual users, that pricing structure could come under pressure.
Francis said Adobe may now be moving into turnaround territory. “If they continue as if it’s business as usual, I think the stock is going to continue dropping from here,” he said.
That does not mean Adobe has no path forward. But it does mean investors may be betting on a successful strategic pivot rather than a business already fully aligned with where the market is going.
USAU: The U.S. Gold-Copper Story Investors Can't Ignore.
USAU: The U.S. Gold-Copper Story Investors Can't Ignore.
Palantir's New Partnership Continues Separating Fact From Fiction
There are several headlines that are taking a backseat to more pressing geopolitical concerns. However, the announcement that Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) are teaming up to launch a sovereign artificial intelligence (AI) OS reference architecture needs more attention.
This partnership will deliver customers a pre-packaged, turnkey AI system. NVIDIA will provide the hardware, and Palantir will provide the software that enables customers to deploy and secure a production-ready AI infrastructure at scale.
The “so what” moment for those who aren’t technically inclined is the words “Sovereign AI.” A primary concern of governments and municipalities, the military, and large enterprise customers is the ability to have total control of their data, AI models, and applications (i.e., the AI stack).
In many cases today, that requires sending data to a third-party cloud service, such as Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud or Azure. That means, theoretically, the data could be breached. This system removes that concern because the organizations fully own and control the entire architecture.
What This Deal Means for Palantir
Palantir continues to have naysayers, and this announcement won’t do much to silence them. However, it’s important to note that one concern about Palantir is that it’s “too dependent” on government revenue.
For context, about 55% of Palantir’s revenue comes from its public sector customers. But these contracts tend to have three attributes that investors love. They’re large in dollar value; they span multiple years, and they tend to be sticky. That means once Palantir is in place, the cost of switching becomes prohibitive.
This partnership will enhance those attributes with the U.S. government, for which Palantir is becoming a de facto operating system. Plus, it may expand its reach into international governments, an area where critics have noted the firm doesn’t have a strong presence.
AIPCon 9: Let the Customers Provide the Proof
Palantir’s AIPCon has become a showcase event for the company’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). The event that took place in mid-March continued that pattern with real customers talking about the real-world results being delivered by Palantir.
This session’s lineup was a who's who that reinforced how Palantir continues to expand both its government and commercial customers. For example:
- GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE) explained how it’s doubling down on Palantir's agentic AI capabilities. The technology is now being used to predict equipment failures before they happen, untangle supply chain bottlenecks, and free engineers from the kind of manual spreadsheet work that slows down some of the world's most complex manufacturing operations.
- Centrus Energy (NYSE: LEU) is using Palantir's platform to stitch together classified and unclassified systems as part of the effort to restart domestic nuclear enrichment in the United States. This is active infrastructure work tied directly to American energy independence and national security. That’s a tangible example of the kind of high-stakes, long-duration contracts that make Palantir a one-of-one company.
- LG CNS showcased how Palantir is pushing deeper into large-scale enterprise adoption, a segment that has been one of the fastest-growing parts of the business.
That's the thread that investors need to remember. Critics say Palantir is too reliant on government revenue. But events such as AIPCon provide real-world proof that Palantir is growing both sides of its business, both in revenue and the number of customers.
The takeaway for investors is that Palantir isn’t selling a vision for sometime down the road. It’s building a track record that’s built on long-term contractual partnerships with customers that have deeply integrated Palantir’s software into their mission-critical workflows. And once customers realize those benefits, it makes it unlikely they will move away from the Palantir platforms.
PLTR Stock Remains a Solid Long-Term Buy
Palantir stock is up nearly 500% in the last five years. No matter how much institutional investors would like to claim, that isn’t just because of retail investor enthusiasm. The company continues to prove it’s still got a lot left in the tank for future growth.
But some investors can’t get past the valuation. That’s understandable, and absolutely a personal choice investors must make for themselves. As a trade, it’s been better to be defensive about PLTR stock in the last six months. Many Palantir bears would say that, as with many technology stocks, the long-term growth from this partnership is already priced into the stock.
However, for long-term investors, the dip near $130 was an obvious buy, and if the stock heads back there again, it’s another obvious buy.
The deal with NVIDIA provides more than enough reason to believe that Palantir is expanding its moat. That means, regardless of its current valuation, PLTR stock can go much higher in the next three to five years.
Next Door To Hercules' Breakout Copper Discovery
Next Door To Hercules' Breakout Copper Discovery
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