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Behind the Markets
Warm Winter Hit Vail's Earnings. What Does It Mean for the Stock?
Authored by Jennifer Ryan Woods. First Published: 3/11/2026.
Key Points
- An unusually warm winter and historically low snowfall in the Rockies led Vail Resorts to miss fiscal second-quarter earnings expectations and cut its full-year guidance, with skier visits falling 12% as limited snowpack reduced available terrain at key resorts.
- Although Vail’s stock has struggled in recent years, falling more than 60% from its 2021 peak, analysts still see significant upside, with the average 12-month price target of about $171 implying more than 25% potential gains from current levels.
- Investor sentiment remains divided, as short interest has climbed to nearly 12% of the public float even while the company’s 6.6% dividend yield may help support the stock.
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A historically warm winter weighed on ski-resort operator Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN), producing disappointing fiscal Q2 2026 results and prompting the company to cut its full-year guidance. Shares initially fell after the report was released following the market close on March 9, though they later recovered. Price action was marginally positive the next day, with the stock trading around $135 on above-average volume as investors digested the earnings miss and the updated outlook.
Investor sentiment remains mixed. Despite the weather-driven setback, analysts still see meaningful upside, while rising short interest suggests some investors are skeptical about the company's near-term prospects.
Warm Winter Hits Earnings and Skier Visits
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Click here to get the details and I'll show you how to claim your stake…On the earnings call, Chief Executive Robert Katz said the disappointing quarter and reduced guidance reflect the challenges the company faced this season, which he described as "the most difficult weather environment in the Rockies we have ever seen." Snowfall and snowpack were at or near historic lows, surpassing the dismal conditions of fiscal 2012, which had previously been considered the worst season in the Rockies. The poor ski conditions led to a 12% decline in visits.
The Colorado-based company, which operates more than 40 mountain resorts including flagship destinations such as Vail Mountain, Beaver Creek and Breckenridge, reported earnings of $5.87 per share — down from $6.56 a year earlier and missing estimates by $0.18. Revenue for the quarter totaled $1.08 billion, a 4.7% decline year over year and more than $27 million below estimates. Because the Rockies generate the lion's share of Vail's resort EBITDA, historically low snowfall in that region had a disproportionate effect on results.
Epic Pass and Diversified Resorts Help Cushion the Blow
In the earnings release, Katz said that despite the "worst-case weather scenario," the decline in lift revenue was modest, reflecting the resiliency of Vail's operating model. Strong growth in the Epic Pass program, which allows skiers to prepay for access to multiple resorts, helped stabilize results. Pass holders account for roughly 75% of visits, supplying a steadier revenue stream even in difficult seasons. The company's expansion into more geographically diverse locations has also helped mitigate the impact of regional weather swings.
Because weather continues to limit available terrain at some resorts, Vail lowered its fiscal 2026 net income outlook to a range of $144 million to $190 million, down from a prior forecast of $201 million to $276 million. The company maintained its quarterly dividend of $2.22 per share, saying this year's decline in cash flow does not change the business's long-term cash-generating ability. The dividend, which equates to a roughly 6.6% yield, may attract income-focused investors and help support the stock.
Shares Have Struggled Despite Analysts' Expected Upside
Vail's stock has declined steadily since its all-time high around $372 in November 2021. In early February it hit a recent low of $126 — a drop of more than 66% from that peak. Over the past year, shares have fallen more than 11%, compared with gains of over 10% for the leisure and recreational services industry and more than 18% for the Invesco Leisure and Entertainment ETF (NYSEARCA: PEJ), which tracks U.S. leisure and entertainment companies. Vail's stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio just under 20x, above the industry and broader consumer discretionary sector average of roughly 17x.
Analysts are divided. Of the 13 covering the stock, four have a Buy, eight a Hold and one a Sell. Following the results, three analysts lowered their price targets: Barclays to $138 from $140, Truist to $217 from $234, and Stifel Nicolaus to $172 from $175. Despite those cuts, the consensus 12-month price target remains $171, more than 25% above the current share price of about $133.
Short interest has risen, reflecting growing skepticism among some investors. As of Feb. 13, roughly 4.19 million shares were sold short, representing nearly 12% of the public float — about double the level from a year earlier.
For investors, Vail's outlook may hinge on whether the weather-driven weakness proves temporary. Rising short interest signals some near-term concern, but analysts' upside projections could materialize if visitation normalizes and the pass-based model continues to provide stability. In the meantime, the stock's high dividend yield may help cushion performance during what has been a challenging season for the company.
Norwegian Hit Rough Seas After Earnings—Viking Cruised Through
Authored by Chris Markoch. First Published: 3/5/2026.
Key Points
- Norwegian and Viking both beat on earnings, but the market punished one and rewarded the other.
- The gap between "good" and "great" results is showing up in analyst price targets heading in opposite directions.
- Rising oil prices from the Middle East conflict could cap upside for both cruise stocks in the near term.
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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NCLH) and Viking Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: VIK) reported earnings on March 2 and March 3, respectively.
Heading into earnings, analysts were generally more bullish on Viking than on Norwegian, though both stocks rose more than 13% in the three months before their reports.
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Cruise lines are part of the consumer discretionary sector, which has lagged as investors sought easier gains in technology.
That rotation may be on pause as investors reposition amid the current conflict in the Middle East.
But as the earnings reports for Norwegian and Viking show, there remains demand for cruising, particularly among travelers over 60, who make up a sizable portion of both companies' customer base.
However, similarities largely end there. That's what investors reacted to. Viking focuses like a laser on an adults-only, curated luxury experience, while Norwegian offers a broad portfolio that spans multiple consumer segments.
A Case of Good Versus Great
Norwegian Cruise Line delivered a solid earnings report on March 2. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28 beat the $0.27 consensus by a penny, but the company missed on the top line. Quarterly revenue of $2.24 billion was below the $2.34 billion expected.
The market reaction was swift and severe, sending NCLH shares down roughly 14.5%. The move reflected concerns about the company's guidance. Management cited continued operational pressure tied to what it called premature capacity increases in its Caribbean fleet, along with execution misalignment that weighed on European and Alaska itineraries.
By contrast, Viking Holdings reported stronger results. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.67, well above the $0.54 forecast. Revenue of $1.72 billion comfortably beat the $1.63 billion estimate. VIK shares rose about 3.2% on a day when much of the market was down.
Not everything in Viking's report was perfect. The company flagged some constraints in building out its river cruise fleet, but management characterized those headwinds as manageable.
Analysts View Each Stock Very Differently
Prior to earnings, Norwegian was trading near its consensus price target of $25.60. The post-earnings move left the stock closing at $21.30 on March 3, roughly 20% below that target.
Investors should be cautious about treating NCLH as a straightforward buy-the-dip. Since the company's report, the Norwegian Cruise Line analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show five analysts have lowered their price targets. JPMorgan pushed its target down to $19 from $20.
That contrasts with Viking Holdings, where analysts were raising targets before the earnings report. Many of those targets sit above the consensus price of $69, and several exceed VIK's closing price of $76.43 on March 3.
Momentum traders may see NCLH as offering value and VIK as priced for perfection. From a valuation standpoint, there is a case that NCLH is undervalued: Norwegian's price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios are below historical averages, and its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.6x is only a slight premium to its own history while remaining well below the S&P 500's lofty valuation.
By contrast, VIK trades at a significant premium by nearly every measure. Viking has been a market favorite since it began trading publicly about a year ago and has posted strong year-over-year gains in revenue and earnings over the past three quarters.
The Headwind Impacting Both Stocks
The current conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, and where those prices will be in six months or a year is uncertain. On its earnings call, Norwegian said about 51% of its fuel needs for 2026 and 27% for 2027 are hedged to help mitigate near-term volatility.
Viking noted that many of its river cruises operate under fixed-price contracts for a significant portion of 2026. Management also highlighted that its ocean fleet is designed for fuel efficiency and will soon include what the company says will be the world's first hydrogen-powered cruise ship.
On the operations front, Norwegian does not sail in the Middle East; Viking has paused its Egyptian cruises, though those trips account for only about 2% of its business.
But investors often move first and ask questions later. That means the specter of higher oil prices could put a near-term ceiling on both VIK and NCLH.
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