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Good morning… Five weeks of war... and it’s only getting worse. Iran came out over the weekend and said U.S. demands are “excessive” and denied that direct talks are even happening. The Houthis entered the war, fired missiles at Israel, and said they won’t stop until the attacks on Iran cease. There were new missile waves overnight. Explosions at U.S. bases in multiple countries. Cosco ships are trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in weeks... which tells you someone is testing the blockade. Brent is at $115.47. WTI at $101.80. SocGen put out a note saying there’s a growing likelihood Brent tops $150 if Hormuz stays shut... and honestly, look at the trajectory and tell me that’s unreasonable. Saudi’s Yanbu port is the only bypass left, and the Houthis have it in missile range. If they hit it... There’s no Plan B. That’s it. Futures are green this morning. Dow up, S&P up 0.39%. I know how that looks. Don’t get excited... this is a dead cat bounce after five straight weeks of selling. The Dow is still in correction. Morgan Stanley just downgraded global equities to an equal-weight rating. Gold is at $4,559. The dollar is back above 100 on the DXY, crushing everything from the yen to emerging-market currencies to anyone who imports anything priced in dollars... which is everyone. Japan’s top currency official used the word “decisive” for the first time... that’s the strongest language we’ve heard, and it means intervention is probably coming. But they’re still blaming speculators, which is a joke... 95% of their crude comes from the Middle East, and 74% of it went through Hormuz, which is shut. The BOJ is at 0.75%, while the Fed is at 3.50–3.75%. That 275-basis-point gap is a magnet, pulling capital out of the country. They spent $99.4 billion defending the yen last year. It bought them months. Not a fix. And if you read the BIS piece from August... How I Learned to Start Worrying and Hate the Bond Market Bomb... every warning is playing out. The BIS literally used Japan’s carry trade as the textbook example of how foreign shocks transmit to U.S. markets. Page 63. Now the carry trade is back at the same levels, except this time there’s a shooting war, $115 oil, and Hormuz is shut. The chain reaction nobody’s talking about is Japan intervenes, sells Treasuries to fund it, that selling hits the basis trade where hedge funds hold 10% of float at zero haircut, margin calls cascade... and suddenly it’s everyone’s problem. The BIS report was the diagnosis. The Iran war lit the fuse. Japan is the detonator. Holiday-shortened week. ISM manufacturing and Fed Chair Powell today. Nike earnings Tuesday. Jobs report drops Friday while markets are closed for Good Friday... and if it misses, that’s back-to-back payroll losses for the first time since 2020. Nobody can trade it until Monday. Trump’s April 6 Iran deadline is seven days away. After the Morning Brrr, we shift to Money Printer Pro... breakout stocks, breakdown names, and the full Tesla short setup. Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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