The S&P 500 just lost its safety net


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•		The S&P 500 just lost its safety net. For the first time in months, the SPY sliced through its 200-day moving average. With tech stocks no longer bailling out the indices, we’re looking at a straight shot down to 635 (an 8% drop) or even 600 if the panic sticks. It’s the clearest "get out of the way" signal we’ve seen all year.

•		Gold is having a "COVID-level" freakout. Prices just hit their most oversold levels since 2020, with momentum cratering to minus 3. This extreme flush-out at the 100-day moving average (the 421 level) has set up a rare 1-to-1 risk-reward trade. If you think the world is still chaotic enough for a rebound, a 420/425 put spread is the play to catch a bounce over the next month.

•		Palantir is a coin flip with massive stakes. The stock is trapped in a tight box between $148 and $161. If it closes the week below $148, it likely tumbles to $125. If it clears $161, it’s headed back toward all-time highs near $195. Despite a massive PE ratio, its shift from bleeding cash in 2021 to government-backed profitability in 2025 means big institutions are still hovering to buy any significant dip.

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The S&P 500 just lost its safety net

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