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Is the Airline Stock Dip After the Iran Attacks Justified?
Authored by Nathan Reiff. Originally Published: 3/10/2026.
Key Points
- Many airline stocks have plummeted by 20% or more in the last month amid the start of war in Iran and related oil price volatility.
- Airline companies face numerous negative pressures related to the war, including canceled flights, the potential for suppressed demand, and more.
- Jet fuel prices and cracks have spiked, meaning that even airlines not doing business within the area of conflict will feel the repercussions.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
As the conflict in and around Iran appears likely to continue, it is no surprise that airline stocks have been among the first to feel a significant impact. These shares are closely tied to fuel costs, geopolitical stability and consumer demand—all three of which have become more volatile as the situation escalates and spreads. Both major carriers and smaller domestic and regional names have seen sharp declines: shares of Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) have fallen roughly 22% and 27%, respectively, over the past month.
For investors, a price decline can present an opportunity to strengthen a position in the airline industry. But it will be important to evaluate whether the initial shock of the conflict—and the resulting oil-price concerns—justify the selloff despite a generally strong recent track record for domestic travel. If the conflict proves prolonged and leads to further downside, waiting to enter or add to positions could be a prudent choice.
Major Air Carriers Face Multiple Negative Drivers
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This could be the best investment opportunity of the decade.Delta, American and other major carriers have been hit hardest by the combination of several negative factors.
First, thousands of commercial flights to and from the Middle East have been canceled. Airlines incur operational and logistical costs in these instances while losing potential revenue.
Second, and perhaps most consequential for carriers broadly, jet-fuel costs have climbed. The Argus US Jet Fuel Index rose to $3.88 on March 6 from $2.50 just a week earlier. While crude oil has been volatile since the conflict began, refined petroleum products have experienced even greater stress: jet fuel prices and the associated cracks—the spread between crude oil and the jet fuel derived from it—have surged.
Finally, consumer demand is a more diffuse but still meaningful risk. In its most recent earnings report, Delta expressed optimism about demand despite headwinds such as the government shutdown, pointing to loyalty and cargo growth, and improvements in non-ticket revenue streams.
Fellow Big Four member United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) reported similar strength in its Q4 2025 report, citing its highest-ever seat completion factor and a 12% year-over-year increase in premium revenue, for example.
As consumers brace for higher gasoline prices and potential cost increases for many goods, leisure travel demand could weaken as households redirect spending toward essentials. The impact on airlines may not be immediate, but it could persist even after oil markets and inventories stabilize.
Can Regional Airlines Fare Any Better?
That said, carriers that operate primarily domestically or are based outside the region are unlikely to escape the fallout. Much of the pain stems from higher fuel costs and broader market sentiment, which affect most airlines regardless of route geography.
One modest bright spot is Air Canada (TSE: AC), whose shares have fallen by about 13% in the past month—less severe than many peers but still a notable decline.
Some Wall Street analysts have already adjusted their outlooks: since the start of the month, for example, Weiss downgraded DAL to Hold from Buy, and other firms have lowered price targets. Some investors may prefer to wait for additional downside before initiating new positions.
Watching short-interest trends can also provide insight into market expectations for future share-price moves. Companies like American were already facing rising short interest before the conflict began, and that pressure could intensify.
Ultimately, depending on the duration and scope of the conflict, the start of 2026 may feel eerily similar to early 2020 when COVID-19 grounded global air travel. To reach those extremes, share prices would need to fall substantially further than they already have. For now, bearish investors may wait to see how low airline stocks can fly.
3 Defense Stocks Under $20 With Massive Upside
Authored by Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 3/6/2026.
Key Points
- Small-cap defense stocks trading under $20 offer investors exposure to fast-growing areas such as military drones, battlefield connectivity, and next-generation batteries.
- Companies such as Unusual Machines and Inseego provide “picks-and-shovels” technology supporting defense modernization trends.
- SES AI represents a higher-risk play with massive upside potential if its AI-driven battery technology gains traction in drone and defense markets.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
First, the bad news. The best time to buy into aerospace and defense stocks was roughly nine months ago. That timing would have positioned investors to capture the strong growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the acceleration in early March after military tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran intensified.
Now the good news: there are still opportunities to invest in small-cap defense names trading under $20.
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This could be the best investment opportunity of the decade.Last year at this time, investors could have bought Red Cat Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RCAT) for about $5.30 a share; it recently closed near $15. A similar jump happened with Amprius Technologies Inc. (NYSE: AMPX), which traded near $2.10 a year ago and also recently closed around $15.
Both RCAT and AMPX remain interesting, but they have moved toward mid-cap territory. Below are three true small-cap defense stocks that offer "picks-and-shovels" exposure to the defense sector.
A Picks-and-Shovels Play on the Military Drone Boom
While Red Cat builds drones and Amprius supplies batteries, Unusual Machines Inc. (NYSE: UMAC) provides critical components—motors, FPV cameras and flight controllers—used in tactical drone platforms for the U.S. military and enterprise customers.
All of its products are NDAA-compliant, which matters as the U.S. government restricts the use of certain foreign-made drone components. Illustrating its ties to military procurement, Unusual Machines received a $3.75 million purchase order from Performance Drone Works in December 2025 to support the AM-FPV program.
The company posted its first profitable quarter in Q3 2025, recording $1.6 million in net income on $2.1 million in revenue, and expanding gross margins to 34%. Year-to-date revenue through Q3 was up 55% year-over-year. Unusual Machines is scheduled to report earnings on March 9, 2026, and analysts expect revenue of $3.59 million for that period.
Management is targeting a $30 million annual revenue run rate to reach break-even. Needham named UMAC a top pick for 2026 and projects 149% revenue growth. The Unusual Machines analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show four analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average 12-month price target of $20—roughly a 30% upside from recent levels.
5G Connectivity Powering Mission-Critical Communications
Inseego Corp. (NASDAQ: INSG) is the connectivity infrastructure play in this group. The company makes 5G and 4G mobile broadband solutions—including the MiFi brand—along with rugged industrial routers and cloud management platforms for government agencies, transportation companies and enterprises. Its devices meet strict government supply-chain security requirements and are listed on GSA Schedule contracts.
Four of Inseego's 5G products carry Verizon Frontline-Verified designation, validating their use in mission-critical communications for law enforcement, fire and EMS. At Mobile World Congress in February 2026, Inseego launched the MiFi PRO M4 enterprise router with Wi‑Fi 7 and standalone 5G, and updated its Inseego Subscribe SaaS platform to automate government procurement workflows—adding a recurring revenue stream that strengthens the company's business model.
Q4 2025 revenue came in at $48.4 million, marking the company's third consecutive quarter of sequential growth, with adjusted EBITDA of $6 million and a 12.4% margin. Inseego is approaching profitability. Four analysts cover INSG, with a consensus price target of $16.50, implying roughly 50% upside from the stock's recent close near $11; Craig-Hallum is the most bullish with a $20 target.
High-Risk Battery Technology With Defense Drone Potential
SES AI Corp. (NYSE: SES) is the highest-risk, highest-reward name on this list. Trading near $1.55, it qualifies as a penny stock. SES AI develops AI-enhanced lithium metal batteries for electric vehicles, drones, urban air mobility and robotics—applications where energy density and weight are critical—making it a natural fit for tactical drone platforms.
SES AI is executing a strategic pivot. In 2025 it launched the Molecular Universe platform, which uses AI to accelerate battery materials discovery, and reported six breakthrough materials now being tested by more than 40 customers. The company is converting manufacturing capacity at its South Korea facility from EV to drone form factors and is working toward NDAA compliance. If successful, SES AI could become a direct supplier for U.S. defense drone procurement.
Revenue more than doubled quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025 following the UZ Energy acquisition. The company's asset-light model supports a projected break-even point near $32 million in annual revenue. The SES AI analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show two analysts covering the stock with a consensus price target of $4.00—implying potential upside of more than 250% from current levels, though the name carries significant execution risk.
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