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NVIDIA Rally? The Market Hasn't Seen Anything Yet
Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 3/17/2026.
Key Points
- NVIDIA's stock is deeply undervalued, and the news revealed at GTC proves it.
- The two-year revenue forecast is probably 50% too low, maybe more, and long-term forecasts are also questionable.
- Valuation, growth, comps with peers, analysts, institutional, and technical trends align: 50% upside is the minimum for this stock.
- Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
If you think that NVIDIA's (NASDAQ: NVDA) rally to date has been impressive, just wait for what comes next. News revealed at the GTC developer conference shows the AI boom is still growing, much larger and faster than expected, indicating potential for another series of triple-digit gains. This could be a series—not just a single occurrence—of triple-digit gains for this semiconductor stock.
CEO Jensen Huang said there is a trillion-dollar revenue opportunity to be realized through 2027, far larger than expected. So large, in fact, that it more than doubles the existing two-year revenue outlook, suggesting NVIDIA's share price has yet to be fully unlocked.
NVIDIA's Stock Is Deeply Undervalued—50% Upside Is the Minimum Target
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This could be the best investment opportunity of the decade.From a valuation perspective, there is a significant opportunity. NVIDIA trades at a 22x forward earnings multiple as of mid-March 2026, which provides no premium relative to the S&P 500.
NVIDIA trading with no premium is surprising given its central role in AI. Its revenue is growing rapidly, forecasts appear conservative, and several comparisons point to substantial price appreciation ahead.
Blue-chip tech stocks, including NVIDIA, often trade at 30–35x forward earnings, which would suggest roughly 50% upside from current levels. The growth forecast also implies even greater potential.
NVIDIA trades at only 14x its 2030 forecast and 9x its 2035 forecast, setting the stage for roughly 150% upside over the long term.
If long-term forecasts are as understated as FY2027 and FY2028 appear to be, upside could be materially higher. In that scenario, upside potential might reach the 300% range or more.
Analysts Are Impressed: Institutions Accumulate NVIDIA
The analyst response cannot be ignored. Wedbush's Dan Ives described the trillion-dollar backlog as "a stunner," saying it is driving an outlook reset. MarketBeat tracked no analyst revisions in the first 12 hours after the release, but sentiment is expected to strengthen rather than weaken.
Other takeaways from commentary include a boost in confidence, easing of competition concerns, and smooth progress toward full-service AI deployments.
Currently, 53 analysts rate the stock as a consensus Buy with a 96% buy-side bias. No analysts rate the stock as a Sell, two rate it as Hold, and the consensus price target—up more than 60% on a trailing 12-month basis—implies roughly 50% upside from March support levels. The high-end targets project more than 100% upside and are likely to rise as the year progresses.
Institutions have been taking advantage of NVIDIA's price consolidation.
MarketBeat data shows institutions providing a solid support base with more than 60% ownership and net accumulation for five consecutive quarters. Buying accelerated sequentially in 2025 and into early 2026, with roughly a $3-to-$1 buyers-to-sellers pace. This reflects not only strong support but a tailwind, as institutions are aggressively accumulating amid broader market uncertainty.
NVIDIA Market Sets Up for Big Move: Technical Targets Converge
The question now is what might catalyze the next upward movement. Q1 2027 results aren't due until late May, leaving two months for the market to position. In that environment, anticipation and fear of missing out could push the share price higher, with $196 serving as a key resistance level. If that level is cleared, a rapid move higher is possible. Additional resistance points to watch are $200 and $210, which could create volatility but are unlikely to stop an advance once momentum builds. 
Chart action is another factor pointing to 50%–100% upside in the near to mid term. Recent consolidation created a bullish flag with an approximately $90 flagpole. Measured from the $180 breakout base, that implies a roughly $90 (≈50%) move to about $270 as a base case and up to roughly $360 (≈100%) at the high end—moving closer to the Street-high analyst target of $400.
The New War Portfolio: 3 Stocks Built for a High-Tech War
Submitted by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 3/8/2026.
Key Points
- Palantir’s artificial intelligence platform is becoming the essential command-and-control engine for modern intelligence operations.
- AeroVironment's combat-proven unmanned systems deliver unparalleled precision and tactical agility on the modern battlefield.
- Northrop Grumman's extensive backlog and advanced platforms offer investors stable exposure to long-term, strategic defense programs.
- Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
The global landscape is experiencing a marked increase in geopolitical instability, which is acting as a catalyst for the defense industry. This is more than a cyclical rise in spending; it marks a crucial inflection point. A new defense doctrine is emerging—one in which victory is determined not by mass but by information superiority, precision, and autonomous action. For investors, that signals a durable, long-term trend in which the most compelling growth stories belong to companies enabling a smarter, data-centric approach to national security.
Why This Time Is Different for Defense Spending
Defense budgets worldwide are being reshaped to address the realities of 21st-century conflict. The focus is rapidly shifting toward technologies that provide a decisive intelligence and operational edge: funding for artificial intelligence (AI) to process data at machine speed, unmanned systems that can be deployed with greater agility, and resilient communication networks that connect everything. This is not the familiar cyclical boost; it's a structural reallocation of capital toward the technology of modern warfare, creating a sustained tailwind for the companies leading the shift.
Palantir: Turning Battlefield Chaos Into Clarity
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This could be the best investment opportunity of the decade.In modern military operations, data is the most valuable ammunition—and Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) provides the system to aim it. The company has positioned itself as the central nervous system for intelligence, turning vast streams of battlefield information into actionable insights.
Its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) functions as a command-and-control engine, fusing data from satellites, drones, and soldiers to create a single, real-time operational picture that gives commanders a decisive edge. In this environment, the ability to anticipate an adversary's move seconds before it happens is the ultimate advantage.
Demand for this capability is surging. Palantir's recent financial results showed a roughly 70% year-over-year revenue increase in its last reported quarter, underscoring explosive growth.
While its deep roots within the U.S. Department of Defense provide a stable foundation of government revenue, its expanding commercial business is an important tailwind for investors. Growth in the private sector demonstrates the broad applicability of its technology and reduces reliance on government spending cycles. This dual-pronged strategy creates a more resilient business model capable of capturing growth across the economy.
- Key Investment Takeaway: Palantir offers direct exposure to the high-growth AI-in-defense theme, with a premium valuation that reflects its critical role and accelerating adoption curve.
AeroVironment: The Unmanned Tip of the Spear
AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV) has emerged as the premier provider of small, unmanned systems that are proving indispensable in modern conflicts.
The company's flagship products, such as the Switchblade loitering munition (often called a "kamikaze" drone), offer a unique see-and-strike capability, enabling operators to identify and engage targets with exceptional accuracy.
This is complemented by a robust portfolio of reconnaissance drones, including the Puma and Raven systems, which provide critical intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) without putting pilots at risk.
The strategic importance of these systems is reflected in the company's financial performance. In its second-quarter 2026 earnings report, AeroVironment posted revenue growth of over 150% year over year, a clear indicator of strong demand. Anticipating future needs, the company has announced plans for a domestic manufacturing expansion, signaling confidence in a sustained, high-volume order pipeline from the U.S. military and its allies. Major contract negotiations—such as those related to the Space Force's SCAR program—are closely watched and underscore the Pentagon's valuation of its next-generation technology.
- Key Investment Takeaway: As the go-to provider of combat-proven tactical drones, AeroVironment's growth is directly tied to rising demand for unmanned systems, positioning it as a key beneficiary of this doctrinal shift.
Northrop Grumman: The Backbone of Modern Warfare
While Palantir provides intelligence and AeroVironment delivers tactical action, Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) builds the advanced, resilient platforms that underpin the entire ecosystem.
The company leads strategic programs designed for the information age, most notably the B-21 Raider. The B-21 is not just a stealth bomber but a data-fusing, networked asset engineered to operate and connect the battlespace in the most contested environments—ensuring the data streams required by systems like Palantir's remain available.
For investors, Northrop Grumman's financial strength provides a stable anchor. The company maintains a large, growing backlog of approximately $95.7 billion, offering long-term revenue visibility and insulating it from short-term market swings.
Its leadership in the space domain, exemplified by the DARC program for deep-space surveillance, is critical to maintaining information superiority. That technological edge is complemented by a 22-year record of consecutive dividend increases and a current yield near 1.22%. Trading at a P/E of about 26, it presents a more traditional valuation compared with high-growth tech plays, signaling financial health and a commitment to shareholder returns.
- Key Investment Takeaway: Northrop Grumman represents a stable, blue-chip way to access this theme, offering exposure to advanced defense programs while providing the security of a massive backlog and a reliable dividend.
A Modern Portfolio for a New Reality
The rules of conflict have been rewritten by technology, and investment strategies must adapt. The complementary strengths of Palantir's AI-driven analysis, AeroVironment's tactical execution, and Northrop Grumman's foundational platforms create a powerful combined effect. These companies are not just reacting to current events; they are building the future of defense.
As nations continue to prioritize technological superiority, the triad of data, drones, and advanced defense systems offers a compelling, forward-looking investment thesis. The shift to a technology-first defense posture is unlikely to be fleeting—it appears to be a multi-decade transformation that places these three companies at the forefront of a new investment cycle.
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