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Five Below's Earnings Blowout Has Wall Street Scrambling to Raise Targets
Reported by Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 3/20/2026.
Key Points
- Five Below's stock jumped about 10% after the company delivered a strong Q4 earnings beat.
- Institutional investors added roughly $12 billion, signaling strong confidence in the story.
- Analysts raised price targets as Five Below’s Gen Z focus continues to fuel growth.
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Five Below (NASDAQ: FIVE) stock surged more than 10% after delivering a strong Q4 2025 earnings report, building on roughly a 7% gain in after-hours and pre-market trading as buyers continued to pile in throughout the session.
The quarter extends a value-and-growth story that has been developing for several quarters. The company has largely navigated the tariff-driven supply challenges and produced impressive top- and bottom-line results.
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Get the 4 steps to Fed-proof your savings nowFIVE stock is up more than 200% over the past 12 months. In a difficult retail sector, discount retailers have found it easier to capture a more "choiceful" consumer. Still, results from Dollar General (NYSE: DG) and Ollie's Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ: OLLI) illustrated that investors are looking through some of the current headwinds.
That dynamic highlights why Five Below's customer-focused strategy matters. The company has targeted Gen Alpha and Gen Z shoppers while also appealing to millennial moms. Management says the approach is working: Five Below is reporting strong results across income levels and expects that momentum to continue in 2026.
Tariffs Are a Known Cost
Five Below was among the companies hit hardest by tariffs in 2025, and tariffs will remain a factor into 2026. The company's guidance assumes tariff rates in place on Feb. 1, 2026, will persist—a prudent, conservative assumption.
Management expects the tariffs to be less disruptive this year. On the company's conference call, CEO Winnie Park said, "…last year we had the tariffs hit us, and so we weren't able to actually buy or attain all the products that we wanted to fill out some of our worlds. This year, that is not an obstacle."
Institutions Led the Way
FIVE stock is up about 25% year-to-date in 2026, and institutional buying has been a major driver. In the most recent quarter, institutions bought roughly $12 billion worth of stock versus about $484 million in selling.
That significant institutional demand signaled expectations for a strong report—and Five Below delivered. Such a showing will likely attract additional institutional interest, particularly given recent analyst reactions.
MarketBeat's Five Below analyst forecasts indicate five analysts have already raised price targets for FIVE. The highest target is $285 from UBS Group, roughly 22% above the current consensus target and about 10% above the level the stock reached after the report.
FIVE Stock Is Heading Higher, But Patience May Be Rewarded
The near-term outlook for FIVE is bullish, but investors should temper expectations. Parabolic moves like this often experience short-term reversals as momentum traders take profits, potentially within the same session or over the next few days.
If the stock pulls back, valuation could be a factor. FIVE trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 42x—more than twice the S&P 500 average and higher than both the company's historical average and the retail sector average. Still, technical indicators are currently more bullish than cautionary.
The options market doesn't appear to be flashing a major bearish signal. While the April 17 options chain shows elevated put activity, much of that likely reflects hedging by existing long holders rather than a directional bearish bet. With no meaningful catalyst before the next earnings report in June, many of those puts may expire worthless.
Investors who missed the rally might look for a consolidation or a healthy pullback into the $220–$225 range. That area corresponds to late February/early March price levels and a former resistance zone that could now act as support.
With management guiding for 14%–16% comp growth in Q1 2026 and the next earnings release not due until June, patient investors can reasonably wait for a better entry without fearing an imminent catalyst.
Home Depot Stock Keeps Falling—Analysts Say the Upside Is Still There
Reported by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Originally Published: 3/14/2026.
Key Points
- Despite a sluggish housing market and weak consumer sentiment that have slowed renovation spending, Home Depot has remained resilient, allowing it to report results ahead of expectations, renewing optimism on Wall Street.
- The company’s growing focus on higher-margin professional customers has helped offset softer do-it-yourself demand, as contractors tend to spend more per visit and make repeat purchases, providing more consistent revenue during periods of weak housing activity.
- Shares have fallen more than 12% over the past month as housing concerns weigh on the sector, yet analysts remain optimistic, with an average price target of $416, more than 20% above the current price.
- Special Report: Elon's "Hidden" Company
A sluggish housing market and weak consumer sentiment have been major headwinds for The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), as homeowners pull back on large renovation projects that are key drivers of the company's sales. Yet despite the difficult backdrop, the home improvement giant has remained surprisingly resilient.
The company's strategy of shifting its emphasis toward professional contractors rather than do-it-yourself customers has helped sustain growth, supporting a fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report that beat expectations and renewed optimism on Wall Street. Analysts see substantial upside from current levels, but housing-market concerns continue to outweigh their optimism and the company's solid fundamentals.
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Get the full story here.Shares were recently trading around $339, down about 13% over the last month and 23% from the 52-week high reached in mid-September. Could the pullback be setting the stock up for a rebound in the coming months? It could—particularly if mortgage rates ease or the spring home-selling season proves strong.
Housing Market Weakness Continues to Weigh on Renovation Spending
Persistently high mortgage rates have created a lock-in effect, with homeowners reluctant to sell and take on higher borrowing costs. That has kept home sales sluggish and dampened renovation spending, which typically rises when housing turnover increases. Weak consumer confidence has further pressured households to rein in spending on large home-improvement projects.
On the company's quarterly earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said, "Housing turnover has remained at historical lows since 2023, which has significantly reduced demand for projects and other purchases associated with buying and selling a home." He added, "Our customers also tell us they have concerns over general economic uncertainty, including inflation, growing job concerns, and higher financing costs."
Despite these pressures, the company delivered better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter, released on Feb. 24, were $2.72—$0.20 ahead of the consensus estimate—and revenue of $38.2 billion topped analysts' estimate of $38.01 billion. The company reiterated cautious fiscal 2026 guidance, anticipating continued pressure on housing activity, but increased its quarterly dividend by 1.3% to $2.33 per share, signaling confidence in continued cash generation.
Focus on Professional Contractors Provides Stability
Home Depot's shift toward higher-margin professional customers was a key growth driver during the quarter, and management expects that trend to continue. Pros are typically more consistent than DIY shoppers, make repeat purchases, and often spend more per visit.
To better serve this segment, the company has expanded distribution of specialty building products through two acquisitions and invested in digital tools to improve the Pro customer experience, including a real-time delivery tracker for large orders and an AI tool that generates material lists and project quotes. Rival Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) has adopted a similar strategy, though Home Depot's scale gives it an advantage.
Analysts Remain Bullish Even as the Stock Pulls Back
Analysts seemed encouraged by Home Depot's results and the company's ability to navigate a challenging housing market: 12 analysts raised their price targets following the report, and the average 12-month target is $416—more than 22% above the current share price. The consensus rating remains Moderate Buy, with 20 analysts recommending Buy, 12 suggesting Hold, and one advising Sell. Short interest has also declined in recent weeks, with less than 1% of the float sold short, suggesting few investors are betting against the company.
The shares, however, continue to trade lower—down 5% over the last five days and 13% over the last month. Home Depot is not alone: the weak housing market has pressured the entire sector. Shares of Lowe's are down roughly 5% over the last five days and 16% over the month, while Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (NYSE: FND) has fallen more than 7% over five days and nearly 20% over the month.
While housing-market headwinds are unlikely to ease immediately, Home Depot's resilience—along with bullish analyst sentiment and a recent dividend increase—underscores the business's underlying strength. Even a modest drop in mortgage rates, an uptick in consumer confidence, or a strong spring selling season could help restore momentum in the shares.
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