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Expedia Stock Turns Volatile After Rally. Where Does It Go Next?
Written by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Publication Date: 3/20/2026.
Key Points
- Expedia shares more than doubled between April and January after a series of strong earnings reports, but the stock became volatile heading into its fourth-quarter results and fell further after the report as investors reacted to expectations for slower margin expansion.
- Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with the stock trading below its recent highs even as the average price target suggests roughly 17% upside.
- Expedia’s strong balance sheet, growing B2B business, and continued travel demand support the bullish case, but rising short interest, macroeconomic uncertainty, and concerns about margin growth suggest the stock could remain volatile even if the long-term outlook remains positive.
- Special Report: Elon's "Hidden" Company
Shares of online travel company Expedia Group (NASDAQ: EXPE) have hit some turbulence. After more than doubling over the past year amid several strong quarters, the stock soared to a 52-week high in January.
Soon after, though, shares began to pull back. The decline accelerated after the company released its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 12, and although the stock has regained some ground since then, trading remains volatile. That has left investors wondering whether the drop from the highs is a buying opportunity or a sign the rally has run out of steam.
Mixed Signals Leave Investors Uncertain
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Get the full story here.Investors are getting mixed signals about where Expedia could go next. On the positive side, analyst price targets point to meaningful upside from current levels, and valuation metrics suggest the shares may still be undervalued.
News that OpenAI abandoned plans to move directly into travel bookings also eased concerns about potential disruption to online travel agencies.
The company's fundamentals remain solid, with strong growth in its B2B and advertising businesses — trends management expects to continue into 2026.
The balance sheet is healthy, with more than $5 billion in cash and manageable debt.
However, there are reasons for caution. Macroeconomic pressures, including geopolitical tensions, higher fuel costs and weak consumer sentiment, could weigh on travel demand. Investors are also watching whether Expedia can sustain margin growth in the year ahead.
Strong Earnings Fueled the 2025 Rally
A renewed wave of enthusiasm for Expedia began after the company's better-than-expected second-quarter 2025 results, when the company returned to profitability on strong bookings and advertising revenue. The consumer segment, which had shown weakness earlier, also started to stabilize.
Momentum picked up after the third-quarter report. Wall Street applauded another quarter that beat expectations, with continued growth across Expedia's segments. Shares, which had already climbed about 68% between April and the Q3 release, rose more than 20% in the two days that followed, prompting a wave of analysts to raise their price targets. The rally continued through the end of 2025, with the stock gaining another 38% before reaching an all-time high of $303 on Jan. 9.
Profit Taking and Margin Concerns Trigger Pullback
After hitting its peak, momentum began to fade. Some profit-taking followed the strong run, and the decline accelerated after Expedia reported fourth-quarter results — even though the company posted double-digit growth in bookings and revenue and beat analyst expectations.
Expedia also issued optimistic guidance for 2026, but investors focused on management's expectation that EBITDA margin expansion would be more moderate than the prior year. That more cautious margin outlook sent shares down roughly 12% in the sessions following the release.
There is a case that the stock could start moving higher. Analyst sentiment is mixed — 22 Hold ratings and 13 Buy ratings — but the average 12-month price target sits near $281, implying roughly 17% upside from recent prices around $240.
Valuation Suggests Expedia May Still Be Undervalued
Even with shares up more than 45% over the past year, Expedia may still look inexpensive versus peers. Its price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of about 0.71 is lower than several competitors: Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BKNG) has a PEG of 0.97, while Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ: ABNB) sits around 1.55.
Expedia also trades at a lower price-to-sales (P/S) ratio — roughly 2.01 — versus about 5.22 for Booking and 6.55 for Airbnb, and well below the broader internet commerce industry average of nearly 26. Its price-to-earnings ratio of about 24.5 is below Booking's 26.7 and Airbnb's 32.7, though slightly above the industry average near 20.4.
Volatility Likely to Continue Despite Upside Potential
Valuation alone doesn't eliminate the risks. Macroeconomic uncertainty remains a key concern: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising fuel costs and weakening consumer sentiment — particularly among budget-conscious travelers — could reduce bookings if economic conditions soften.
Short interest has also been trending higher. About 7.4% of Expedia's float is currently sold short, the highest level since June 2021, suggesting a growing number of investors are betting on further downside.
Taken together, Expedia's outlook remains mixed.
The company continues to show solid fundamental growth, its valuation looks attractive, and analyst price targets point to upside. At the same time, slower margin expansion, macroeconomic uncertainty, the stock's sharp run over the past year and rising short interest could keep trading bumpy in the near term. For investors willing to tolerate that volatility, the recent pullback may present an opportunity, but the path forward for Expedia stock is unlikely to be smooth.
What Q1 Earnings Could Mean for the S&P 500 Uptrend
Written by Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 3/24/2026.
Key Points
- Q1 earnings reports will start coming out soon and may provide a catalyst for the S&P 500 to set a new high.
- There is a triple-tailwind in place, with earnings growth and accelerating estimates driving sentiment.
- Concentration reemerges as a risk as NVIDIA, AI, and tech will drive quarterly results for the index.
- Special Report: Elon's "Hidden" Company
The Q1 2026 earnings reporting season is fast approaching, and the setup looks solid. Headwinds, risks, and uncertainties remain, but the outlook for growth provides a triple tailwind for the market that will likely carry into Q2. Those tailwinds are earnings growth, expectations for sequential acceleration, and steadily rising analyst forecasts that lift the bar with each weekly round of estimate revisions. With these factors in play, the S&P 500 has room to move higher and will likely resume its uptrend before the reporting period concludes.
A Triple-Tailwind for S&P 500 Price Action in Earnings Forecasts
On the surface, the consensus of estimates puts Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth at 12.5%, with roughly three weeks until the peak reporting season begins. It kicks off on May 14 with a report from JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), the largest U.S. bank. The consensus for Q1 is below the 2025 highs but significantly above recent lows, and it will likely move higher as the season progresses—outperformance is probable.
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Get the 4 steps to Fed-proof your savings nowS&P 500 earnings typically beat consensus by 300 to 500 basis points heading into the reporting season, and recent seasons have been at the upper end of that range. The most likely outcome is that Q1 results approach 15.5% growth or better, supported further by AI-driven trends.
Nothing in the AI spending data suggests demand is cooling; if anything, it's increasing, as NVIDIA's (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Micron Technologies' (NASDAQ: MU) Q4 2025 reports showed. Demand probably remained strong in Q1, which should help these and other AI infrastructure names beat already robust forecasts. Sectorally, the Information Technology Sector is forecast to produce the strongest growth—nearly 45% as of late March. Consensus for this sector climbed about 1,000 basis points over the past three months, leaving high expectations in place.
The next-strongest sector is projected to be Materials at roughly 24%, supported by datacenter demand, followed by Financials. Aside from those, no other sector is forecast to produce double-digit gains; three sectors—led by Healthcare—are expected to contract. The Energy sector may outperform as elevated energy prices boost revenue and earnings, while Healthcare faces headwinds from provider burnout, staffing shortages, rising costs, and cybersecurity pressures.
Guidance to Sustain Uptrend: Concentration Reemerges as a Risk
Earnings results will drive immediate market reactions, but it will be corporate guidance that sustains any rally. S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to accelerate again in Q2 and then maintain a high-teens pace through year-end. Guidance that affirms that trajectory would go a long way toward invigorating market action and catalyzing new highs.
Concentration risk is a key concern for investors. The rally has been broadening and may continue to do so, but much of the focus remains on NVIDIA and the Magnificent Seven. NVIDIA still holds the top spot, accounting for more than 7.1% of the index, the top seven names make up roughly 33%, and the next three bring the top ten to just over 40%. At these levels, investors should expect greater volatility on both upswings and pullbacks, with NVIDIA likely at the center of major moves.
Oil prices are another risk: higher oil can erode earnings power across many sectors. The larger concern is oil's effect on inflation and the outlook for interest-rate cuts, which has weakened. The market now prices in only a slim chance of rate cuts this year, a headwind for businesses and for any further broadening of the rally. Lower rates are particularly important for pre-revenue and early-stage businesses; sustained higher rates favor established, blue-chip companies.
Advanced Micro Devices Best-Positioned to Rocket Higher
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) appears well positioned for outsized gains this season. Results are expected to be strong, but investors will focus on guidance and updates about the forthcoming MI450 product launch. Slated for Q3, the MI450 could boost AMD's revenue growth into triple-digit year-over-year rates in upcoming quarters.
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