The Copper Gap No One Can Ignore

U.S. Has a Copper Problem - And an Early Opportunity

According to S&P Global, the world may need to mine as much copper in the next two decades as it has in all of human history.

Yet major mines take decades to build.

That leaves one option:
Discovery.

While billion-dollar producers dominate headlines, smaller explorers often sit earlier in the cycle - where re-ratings historically occur.

One North American copper play controls multiple assets in proven belts - and still trades under $1.

In supply-driven markets, early discovery stories can shift quickly.

Explore the Copper Discovery Setup >

The Quiet Retail Compounder Investors Keep Buying on Every Dip

Submitted by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 3/10/2026.

Key Points

Casey’s General Stores’ latest earnings report showed modest revenue growth but strong margin expansion, driving outsized earnings gains.
Management raised profit guidance, and steady cash flow supports dividends and ongoing buybacks despite a softer revenue outlook.
Analyst and institutional positioning remains bullish, and the recent pullback may be a buy-the-dip entry for long-term holders.
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Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY) is a long-term retail holding that has generally rewarded a buy-the-dip approach. Casey’s is high-quality: it funds growth internally, consolidates in a still-fractured market, generates ample cash flow, and returns capital to shareholders. Those factors have supported a steady uptrend in the share price, and in early March 2026 CASY is pulling back, setting up what looks like the next buying opportunity.

Mixed Results Spark Drop in Casey’s Shares

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Casey’s reported a solid fiscal third quarter, even though revenue came in slightly below consensus. Revenue grew 0.5%, supported by strength across both segments, including higher store counts and improved margins — evidence that Casey’s continues to manage costs, drive growth, and produce profitable cash flow.

Inside sales were the strongest area, up 4% on a same-store basis, driven by a 3.3% increase in grocery sales and a 4.7% increase in prepared foods. Gasoline sales rose 0.4%, helped by a 4.6-cent (11.2%) increase in fuel margin. Rewards club membership — a useful momentum indicator — surpassed 10 million for the first time.

The margin story was the standout. Strong inside performance and higher fuel margins flowed through the income statement: EBITDA rose 27.5%, net income increased 49.3%, and GAAP earnings climbed about 50%, all outpacing top-line growth. Management now expects margin strength to persist through year-end and raised profit guidance accordingly. The downside is that the 2026 revenue outlook falls short of consensus, though this is unlikely to derail the stock over the long term.

Casey’s Capital Return Trumps Revenue Miss

The revenue miss and softer guidance highlight weaker-than-expected traffic, but they are largely offset by margin strength, robust cash flow, and a consistent capacity to return capital. The company is comfortably positioned to pay dividends and repurchase shares; margin improvement makes those distributions more reliable and supports ongoing growth.

Casey’s dividend yields roughly 0.34% — modest, but sustainable, representing about 10% of expected earnings — which is attractive to buy-and-hold investors. The company has raised its dividend for more than 25 consecutive years, a record that qualifies it among dividend-growth stalwarts like the Dividend Aristocrats.

Share repurchases in fiscal 2026 are small but meaningful. Casey’s resumed buybacks after pausing to build cash for an acquisition and reduced the diluted share count by 0.3% year over year in Q3, increasing shareholder value. At the Q3 pace, the company has enough remaining authorization to fund repurchases for roughly three quarters and would likely expand that authorization in FY2027 absent acquisition activity.

Casey’s balance sheet reflects the accretive effects of operations and the Fike acquisition. At quarter-end cash, current assets, and total assets increased while liabilities rose more modestly. Long-term debt declined and equity was up about 9.8%, keeping leverage low — long-term debt (including lease obligations) remains under 1x equity — leaving the company in a healthy, flexible financial position.

Institutions and Analysts Drive Casey’s Stock Price Higher

Analyst and institutional trends remain broadly bullish for Casey’s. MarketBeat tracks 14 analysts with a consensus rating of Moderate Buy; the buy-side bias is 57%, and price-target revisions have been trending upward. The consensus price target lags current price action as of early March but is up more than 50% on a trailing-12-month basis. The high-end $725 target was set just before the Q3 release, and post-report activity supports that view. That top target implies at least roughly 10% upside, with room for targets to move higher if momentum continues.

Institutional ownership is similarly supportive: these investors hold more than 85% of the float and have been net buyers for six consecutive quarters, with activity ramping to record highs in Q1 2026. In Q1 the balance of buying to selling was greater than $2 bought for each $1 sold, providing a clear tailwind into the earnings release. The likely outcome is continued institutional accumulation and the tendency for buyers to step in on post-release weakness.

We are not securities dealers or brokers, investment advisers or financial advisers, and you should not rely on the information herein as investment advice. Any investment should be made only after consulting a professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the financial statements and other pertinent corporate information. Further, readers are advised to read and carefully consider the Risk Factors identified and discussed in the profiled company's SEC and/or other government filings. Investing in securities, particularly microcap securities, is speculative and carries a high degree of risk.