Wall Street PhDs missed by 151,000 jobs (and your 401k paid for it)

You know what happened to me this morning? I'm sitting here, coffee in hand, waiting for the jobs number like every other trader on the planet.

And these geniuses - and I mean GENIUSES with PhDs from fancy schools - these guys are forecasting 59,000 new jobs.

Fifty-nine thousand. They put that number out there like they actually know something.

Then 8:30 hits. The number comes out. Negative 92,000.

They said UP 59,000. Reality was DOWN 92,000. That's 151,000 jobs OFF.

You want to know how bad that is? If you were playing darts and aiming for the bullseye, you didn't just miss the board - you threw the dart backwards and hit the guy behind you.

I've been doing this for thirty years, okay? And I'm telling you right now, I could ask ChatGPT what the jobs number's gonna be, and it would give me a better forecast than these morons at Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs.

At least ChatGPT would say "I don't know" instead of pretending it has a crystal ball.

But here's what really gets me.

The second that number hit, the Dow futures dropped 350 points. Three hundred and fifty points because some PhD couldn't forecast his way out of a wet paper bag.

You know what I did when I saw that number? I laughed. Then I got pissed. Because there are millions of people out there listening to these forecasts, making decisions based on what these "experts" are saying. And they're wrong. Not a little wrong. Catastrophically wrong.

My dad asked why I don't trust analysts. I told him, "Dad, if I hired someone to count the chairs in our living room and they came back and told me we had 59 chairs when we actually had negative 92 chairs - meaning someone stole chairs from us - I'd fire them on the spot."

But Wall Street? They just shrug it off. "Oh, it was noisy data. Strikes in healthcare. Seasonal adjustments."

Bullsh*t.

You don't get to make excuses when you miss by 151,000 jobs.

And here's the kicker - after being this wrong, they're still on TV tonight explaining what the market's gonna do next week. These are the same people giving you investment advice, telling you where to put your retirement money.

I've got news for you: Stop listening to them.

My seven-year-old daughter could flip a coin and give you better economic forecasts than these PhD economists. At least when she's wrong, she admits it and moves on. She doesn't go on CNBC and explain why being wrong was actually right.

The market sold off because nobody knows what the hell is going on anymore. When your "experts" miss by 151,000 jobs, it tells you everything you need to know about the quality of information you're getting.

Do your own research. Hell, ask ChatGPT instead of listening to some overpaid analyst who couldn't forecast his way out of a paper bag.

At least ChatGPT won't charge you a 2% management fee for being spectacularly wrong.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

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Wall Street PhDs missed by 151,000 jobs (and your 401k paid for it)

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