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Down 75% From Its High, How Much Lower Can Nike Get?

Author: Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 4/2/2026.

Key Points

Nike is in a position to move lower, as results and guidance undermine investor confidence.
Amid a market shift, Nike will struggle to reclaim lost market share.
Valuation metrics suggest this stock has room to move lower in 2026.
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Nike (NYSE: NKE) stumbled, but it's now in a turnaround that is gaining traction. Headwinds remain fierce, however, and the recovery is taking longer than expected, leaving the stock vulnerable to further declines.

The primary takeaway from the fiscal Q3 2026 report is that weakness will likely persist at least another quarter—possibly longer—keeping sentiment negative and the share price under pressure.

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Analysts continue to rate Nike with a consensus Moderate Buy and a strong Buy-side bias, but sentiment and price targets have deteriorated in 2026 and accelerated after the update. Revisions tracked by MarketBeat include downgrades, price-target cuts, or both. The trend points to a consensus rating downgrade in the coming quarter and lower price targets for the stock.

The chart signals are not bullish. The stock gapped down and continued lower, and appears likely to remain under pressure in the near term. Stochastic and MACD also indicate a sell. The spike in volume suggests this could be the start of a larger downward move.

Optimism Erodes, Nike Analysts Cut Ratings and Price Targets

The good news is that consensus forecasts a rebound relative to the early April lows. The bad news is that sentiment is deteriorating, and downside risk at the low end points to double-digit losses. With weakness expected next quarter, analysts are unlikely to establish a firm floor until after the next earnings release. One major hurdle is the loss of market share to companies such as On Holdings (NYSE: ONON). While Nike's revenue and earnings have softened, the company still outperforms expectations in certain areas and continues to grow in some markets.

Institutional investors may provide support under Nike stock, but that remains uncertain. They were net buyers in Q1, though only marginally. If institutions begin to distribute shares, that could push the stock lower—especially since they own about 65% of the float. Short sellers add some pressure as well, but short interest remains modest, below 3% of shares.

Valuation is another concern. The roughly 15% post-release decline eased valuation pressure somewhat, but at about 22x forward earnings Nike may now be fairly valued as a company facing material operational challenges. Is Nike in danger of collapse? Unlikely, but the company is navigating a significant market shift and is no longer the unchallenged leader. Competitors like On Holdings can continue to take share as they build their brands. The real risk is Nike being perceived as dated while fresher competitors gain traction.

Capital returns have been a reason to own Nike, but this too carries risk. Nike is unlikely to cut or suspend its dividend, but it may slow the pace of increases and scale back share repurchases. Buybacks are ongoing but materially lower than a year ago and unlikely to expand without an improvement in fundamentals; if the turnaround stalls, buybacks could be reduced further.

Weak Results and Soft Guidance Undermine Nike Stock Price

Nike's fiscal Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but that was not surprising given the low bar analysts had set. The slim outperformance was offset by tepid growth, margin contraction, and guidance that points to tougher conditions ahead.

By segment, the results show both the effects of the turnaround and why performance has weakened. Wholesale, once neglected while Nike emphasized direct-to-consumer (DTC), improved by 5% as management refocused on that channel, but gains were offset by softness in DTC. Earlier emphasis on DTC had eroded wholesale strength. The key question is whether Nike can find the right balance to restore sustainable growth and margins amid intensifying competition.

Guidance was the catalyst for the sell-off. Even if Q3 results were only tepid, analysts had expected Q3 to be a trough with improvement in Q4. Instead, Nike guided to roughly a 3% revenue decline at the midpoint—well below the roughly 2% gain the analyst consensus had forecasted.

These 3 Beaten-Down Stocks Just Announced Massive Share Buybacks

Author: Leo Miller. Article Published: 3/24/2026.

Key Points

Salesforce is acting quickly to buy back its stock, announcing a huge accelerated repurchase program.
DocuSign's buyback capacity now exceeds 25% of its market capitalization with shares down nearly 50% from recent highs.
As the memory shortage delivers blows to Qualcomm, the company just pushed its buyback authorization above $20 billion.
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Stock buybacks are generally bullish for shareholders. In addition to signaling that management may view the stock as undervalued, share repurchase programs reduce the number of shares outstanding and can boost earnings per share.

Recently, Salesforce (NYSE: CRM), DocuSign (NASDAQ: DOCU), and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM)—three large names in the tech sector that have all seen dramatic drawdowns this year—announced sizable buyback programs that should catch investors' attention.

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Each has fallen at least 30% from its 52-week high, and their management teams are signaling confidence by authorizing significant repurchases at prices they likely view as depressed.

Salesforce Announces Record $25 Billion Accelerated Repurchase

Salesforce has been one of the poster children of the so-called "SaaSpocalypse," with CRM shares down around 35% from their 52-week high. That shorthand describes broad declines across many Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) stocks as investors worry that new artificial intelligence tools could reshape software economics.

Some fear that AI will make coding easier, allowing customers to build customized applications that replicate legacy SaaS functionality, or enable AI-native competitors to offer similar tools at lower cost, pressuring pricing and growth.

Salesforce, however, views AI as an enabler. Its AI add-on AgentForce recently hit $800 million in annual recurring revenue, a 169% year-over-year increase.

Management is showing its confidence with a record $25 billion accelerated share repurchase (ASR), roughly 14% of the company's ~ $180 billion market capitalization.

ASRs are among the fastest ways a company can buy back stock, so this move signals strong conviction that Salesforce's shares are materially undervalued. Wall Street appears to agree: analysts see nearly 44% potential upside over the next 12 months and give the stock a consensus Moderate Buy rating, with 27 of 39 analysts assigning Buy.

DocuSign Lifts Repurchase Authorization to $2.6 Billion

DocuSign has faced many of the same AI-related questions weighing on other software names.

The stock is down nearly 50% from its 52-week high, including a loss near 30% in 2026, and now trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio around 11x, just above its all-time low.

Like many software companies, the negative effects of AI disruption haven't yet shown up in DocuSign's results. The company posted 8% sales growth in 2025, roughly in line with the prior two years, and expects similar growth and relatively stable margins this year.

The market is forward-looking, though, and is weighing whether results could deteriorate and whether guidance will hold.

Still, DocuSign is signaling confidence with buybacks. Alongside its latest earnings release—its 13th consecutive quarterly earnings beat dating back to Q3 2023—the company increased its repurchase authorization by $2 billion, bringing total authorization to $2.6 billion, roughly 28% of its ~$9.5 billion market cap.

The firm spent about $269 million on buybacks in the latest quarter, up 66% year-over-year. The new authorization implies the pace of repurchases could accelerate, and analysts are calling for more than 41% potential upside over the next 12 months.

Qualcomm Boosts Buybacks as Memory Woes Weigh on Shares

Shares of semiconductor giant Qualcomm are trading roughly 35% below their 52-week high.

Qualcomm has limited exposure to the AI data center megatrend, which has contributed to its underperformance relative to many large-cap chipmakers.

Ironically, Qualcomm's largest end market is being hurt by the AI buildout. In its latest quarter, handsets accounted for about 64% of revenue, and the company expects next-quarter handset revenue near $6 billion, a 13% year-over-year decline. Smartphone makers are cutting orders for Qualcomm processors because they cannot secure enough DRAM, limiting phone assembly.

Memory makers are reallocating DRAM capacity toward high bandwidth memory (HBM) needed in advanced AI systems, which commands higher margins and larger opportunities, leaving Qualcomm at a disadvantage in the short term.

Still, Qualcomm is confident about its long-term prospects, with meaningful traction in automotive and a sizable robotics opportunity. The company announced a $20 billion buyback authorization, bringing total repurchase capacity to $22.1 billion, about 17% of its ~$137 billion market cap.

Analysts see this buyback as well-timed, forecasting more than 29% potential upside over the next year.

When Shares Slide, Buybacks Speak

Across Salesforce, DocuSign, and Qualcomm, the common thread is scale: each company is allocating substantial capacity to share repurchases after sizable drawdowns. Buybacks don't erase the business risks that prompted the selloffs, but they do put real capital behind management's belief that valuations have become more attractive.

Among the three, Salesforce's accelerated share repurchase is the most forceful statement, reflecting both urgency and conviction. The ultimate test, however, won't be the size of the authorization but whether execution and upcoming results convince the market that the AI-related fears clouding legacy software are overstated.

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