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Hi, Tim Plaehn here.
CrowdStrike… Palantir... Nvidia…
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Chief Income Strategist
Investors Alley
NVIDIA’s Rally Sets Up a Bigger Test Ahead of Earnings
Reported by Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 8/11/2026.
Key Points
- NVIDIA’s early August rally strengthened the technical setup ahead of its fiscal Q2 earnings report.
- NVIDIA guided for fiscal Q2 revenue of $91 billion, plus or minus 2%, after reporting record fiscal Q1 revenue.
- NVIDIA’s cash flow, buybacks and dividend increase support the long-term case, but high expectations leave little room for disappointment.
- Special Report: Everyone wanted SpaceX. Smart money wants this.
NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) price action sent a signal during the first week of August: The market appears ready to move higher.
While hurdles remain, a significant catalyst lies ahead, suggesting the gains could be substantial.
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Click here to learn this company's name for free todayThe signal is an 11% one-week advance, the stock’s largest single-week gain in more than a year, confirming support at prior highs.
It reflects a market in accumulation mode, with the potential for momentum to increase as the second half of the year progresses.
NVIDIA Fires Strong Technical Signal Ahead of Earnings Release
The technical outlook is solid, with just one hurdle for the stock: potential resistance at its existing all-time high. Otherwise, NVIDIA’s early-August gain was accompanied by bullish signals in the moving averages, MACD and stochastic indicators, all of which align with a trend-following move. Together, these factors create a strong signal that could lead to a retest of critical resistance—or even a higher high—by mid- to late August, when the catalyst is expected.
More importantly, the move was underpinned by trading volume and supported by analysts who see the potential for much larger gains. Fifty-one of the 53 analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate the stock as a Buy, demonstrating strength across all three key metrics: analyst participation, consensus sentiment and the consensus price target. While revisions slowed to a trickle in July, they still reflect firming sentiment. The consensus forecast implies more than 30% upside from the critical resistance point, while the high-end estimate suggests NVIDIA’s stock could still double.
Valuation metrics also suggest that NVIDIA’s stock may double over time. Trading at approximately 24 times current-year guidance, NVIDIA carries only a slight premium relative to the S&P 500—about 7 to 10 times below historical norms. That disparity sets the stage for a 50% gain from price-multiple expansion alone. When factoring in the company’s growth trajectory, earnings projections put NVIDIA in the high single digits relative to its earnings as early as 2032, suggesting at least 100% upside is possible without multiple expansion.
Fiscal Q2 Results Are a Major Catalyst for NVIDIA
And the catalyst? The company's fiscal Q2 2027 earnings report is due in late August. NVIDIA guided for just over $91 billion in net revenue, up more than 95% from the prior year, with growth accelerating both sequentially and year over year. The likely outcome is an earnings beat accompanied by strong guidance, as has been the case for years. That consistency is also the risk: Expectations are high, so even a solid report may not be enough to move the market immediately.
The worst-case scenario is that NVIDIA’s stock price goes nowhere. Tepid market response or not, NVIDIA is positioned to report healthy growth, solid margins and a strong outlook, supported by its recent investments. Those investments provide a path to near-term growth and profitability by securing supply chains, while also supporting long-term growth and profitability by securing future supply and technology.
Downside risk is further limited by the company’s cash flow, which enables self-funded investment and accelerated capital returns, and by institutional activity, which suggests institutions will buy on dips. Although early third-quarter activity reflects some caution—with total activity at a minimum and the balance tilted toward distribution—trailing 12-month activity is more robust. It reveals accumulation at approximately a 2-to-1 pace.
Capital Returns Underpin Broad Market Support for NVIDIA Stock
Capital returns are one reason institutions will buy this stock on dips and help support its price over time. As exciting as new technology may be, cash flow drives institutional investment, and NVIDIA has the cash-production capabilities institutions seek. The AI boom drives billions in quarterly cash flow, sustaining a fortress-like position and improving the company’s capacity to return capital despite its heavy investments.
The likely outcome is that NVIDIA will sustain strong cash flow and cash-flow growth in the coming years, allowing it to maintain aggressive share buybacks and dividend growth. Repurchases are the more significant of the two, accounting for more than $19 billion of the nearly $20 billion in fiscal Q1 2027 and resulting in an average share-count reduction of nearly 0.9% from the prior year.
Reasons to believe NVIDIA will outperform its guidance include the Q2 earnings reports from major hyperscalers, neoclouds and adjacent equipment makers. These reports reveal that cloud spending is still growing and focused on infrastructure buildout, while supply remains constrained. Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s initial Vera Rubin shipments are expected and could exceed forecasts. Adjacent hardware and software launches and ramps are also accelerating, providing the connections and networking needed for scale-out and scale-up applications.
As it stands, the only factor limiting NVIDIA’s revenue-generating ability is its ability to deliver. The risks center on supply-chain bottlenecks, such as those involving Taiwan Semiconductor Solutions (NASDAQ: TSM), which controls a significant share of the AI market and limits capacity for advanced GPU solutions.
McDonald's Stock Sell-Off: Justified Warning or Buying Opportunity?
Reported by Sam Quirke. Originally Published: 8/6/2026.
Key Points
- McDonald's stock has fallen to 2021 levels after a multi-month sell-off, despite the company's latest quarterly earnings beating expectations while revenue fell slightly short.
- Management attributed weaker U.S. sales growth to execution issues, including inconsistent value-menu rollout and excessive promotions, and delayed its 50,000-restaurant goal by a year.
- Despite mixed results, the stock trades near a seven-year-low valuation with a strong dividend, and analysts hold a Moderate Buy consensus rating overall.
- Special Report: Everyone wanted SpaceX. Smart money wants this.
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) might be one of the most reliable blue-chip names on the market, but its shares have had a miserable run of late, with a multimonth sell-off taking the stock back to 2021 levels. For a company long prized for its dependability, that kind of prolonged weakness has understandably left investors wondering whether something is seriously wrong.
The company's latest quarterly results, released Aug. 4, offered a chance to settle that debate. On the surface, they gave the bulls something to hold on to, with earnings coming in ahead of expectations, although revenue fell slightly short. The stock barely budged in response, finishing the session only marginally higher.
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Click here to learn this company's name for free todayThat muted reaction sits at the heart of the question facing investors today. After such a long decline, is the recent weakness a justified reflection of real problems, or has the sell-off gone too far and created an opportunity to buy a great business at a rare discount?
The earnings numbers, along with management's candid assessment, go a long way toward answering that question.
Where the Quarter Fell Short
The most honest assessment is that this was a mixed report rather than a clean beat. While the headline earnings figure topped forecasts, the quality of that beat was open to question, and the underlying operational picture was softer than the bottom line suggested.
The clearest disappointment came from the all-important U.S. business, where sales growth fell short of expectations and marked a noticeable step back from the momentum seen over the past year.
Management emphasized that the issue was one of execution rather than strategy, pointing to an inconsistent rollout of its value menu, service slowdowns caused by running too many promotions at once, and marketing that simply underperformed. That offered little comfort to investors.
There were other signs of strain beneath the surface, too. Perhaps most tellingly, the company pushed back its long-standing target of reaching 50,000 restaurants worldwide by a year. That is not the sort of move a business makes when everything is firing on all cylinders.
Why the Bull Case Still Holds
For all those blemishes, it would be a mistake to write McDonald's off, because the qualities that have made it such a stalwart remain firmly intact. This is still one of the most powerful brands in the world, with enormous scale, a resilient franchise model and a proven ability to keep customers coming through the doors even when budgets are tight.
Crucially, the problems management identified are the kind that can be fixed. An execution stumble, however frustrating, is very different from a broken business model or a brand falling out of favor. The company clearly knows what went wrong and has already outlined a fresh strategy to address it, suggesting that the management team is confronting its shortcomings head-on rather than ignoring them.
Then there are the valuation and the dividend, which together form the backbone of the bull case. After months of decline, the stock now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio similar to its level seven years ago. At the same time, it continues to offer the kind of dependable, growing dividend that has made it a favorite of income investors for decades. For those with a long enough time horizon, buying a dominant business like McDonald's while it is out of favor could be a smart move.
What the Analysts Think
Wall Street, for its part, is approaching the situation with a degree of caution. Following the report, TD Cowen reiterated its Hold rating on the stock, suggesting that some on the Street believe McDonald's may not be entirely out of the woods as it works through its current challenges.
That said, the broader picture is more positive. The overall MarketBeat consensus rating on the stock currently sits at a Moderate Buy, indicating that the analyst community as a whole still sees more reason for optimism than pessimism.
The fact that shares held firm after the report, rather than falling further on the mixed numbers, could be an encouraging sign that selling pressure is easing.
Sell-Off or Opportunity? Where the Risk/Reward Now Stands
So, does this represent a justified sell-off or an opportunity? The truth lies somewhere in between. The recent weakness was not entirely without reason, as the U.S. slowdown and softer operational trends are real issues that deserve to be taken seriously rather than brushed aside.
But the context matters. These are the troubles of a fundamentally excellent company navigating a tough consumer backdrop and a quarter of poor execution, not the symptoms of terminal decline.
With the stock near multiyear lows, its price action holding steady and a rock-solid dividend giving investors a reason to wait, the risk/reward profile does appear to be tilting in the buyers' favor.
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