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Market to Fed: Let’s Agree to Disagree

 
   
     
   
 
APR 18 2023
 
 
Market to Fed: Let’s Agree to Disagree
   
DON YOCHAM
Plotting the Path
 

I’m sure you’ve heard about the Fed’s famous Dot Plot.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began publishing it in 2012 as a show of transparency.

The hope was that by providing FOMC committee member projections for the Federal Funds rate, the Dot Plot can help market participants anticipate interest rate changes and adjust accordingly.

Here’s the latest range of projections, putting the median rate (the series of light blue dots) at just over 5%:
 
 
But the markets are still rejecting the Fed’s staying power. Sure, Fed Fund futures have yielded ground for the short term. But they still expect the FOMC to cut and run before the year is up based on December futures contracts.
 
 
And given the S&P is lounging around 6 month highs, stocks are still fighting the Fed too.

Roger Scott, Celeste Lindman, and I kick off tomorrow’s “Roundtable” with a dive into that disagreement, a discussion on why it’s there, and – crucially – what that means for markets.

And while we’re on the subject of lofty stocks, Celeste will share how she anticipates market turns (whether up or down) based on VIX, Put/Call ratios, and Average Trading Range.

Finally, the most aggressive series of rate hikes in history has driven up margin rates for stocks. That makes it painful to hold onto short positions for long.

Roger will dive into those stocks with the highest cost to borrow. Plus, give us an update on earnings and his top stocks to buy right now and which ones to fade.

We’ll cover that and more on this week’s “Roundtable with Don Yocham.”

It’s at 11 am ET. So, set yourself a reminder. Bookmark this link. And I’ll see you there.

Take What the Markets Give You.
 
 
LANCE IPPOLITO
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Lance

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Earnings on Deck
 
 
 

We’re pushing back this week’s “30 Minutes of Awesome” by an hour. So, I’ll see you tonight, 6 pm ET, right here. 

We’ll talk Netflix (NFLX) – plus a slate of other stocks with earnings coming this week, and I’ll take your requests too!

See you there.

Jeffry
SCOTT WELSH
Housing Boom?
 

Haven’t we already been through the housing boom?

During the pandemic, people flocked to houses. Houses in the country, houses in the suburbs, houses anywhere away from other people.

Thus, house prices went insane.

But that’s over now, right? 

Now it’s back to reality in the form of high interest rates and a recession. 

Not so fast.

Yes, rates are rising but mortgage rates are still reasonable. 

Incredibly, the housing boom may not be over at all. In fact, the housing sector is currently one of the top 5 hottest sectors in the world. 

Recently we talked about Pulte Homes (PHM). 

Since 2022, PHM has outpaced the market by 30%. When we talked about it, we were looking to see if PHM could break above $60.90.

It’s just surged above that level:
 
 
The next stop for Pulte could be a profit target level of $81. Or a trader could just hold it as long as it stayed above the long-term moving average line. 

Housing stocks are soaring at the moment. 

And Pulte’s friend, D.R. Horton (DHI), could be next:
 
 
Happy trading,

Scott
   
 
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