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Goldman Sachs Soars on Q4 Post, Strong Investment Banking Outlook
By Leo Miller. Publication Date: 1/16/2026.
Quick Look
- Goldman Sachs's hot streak is continuing in 2026, with shares up over 10% in 2026.
- Goldman's Q4 financials require close examination as the company transitions its Apple Card business.
- David Solomon sees investment banking activity accelerating in 2026, buoyed by M&A sentiment under the Trump administration.
When it comes to longstanding behemoths in the financial sector, The Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) put up a standout performance in 2025. The stock's total return was nearly 57%, placing Goldman among the top five performers last year among U.S. financial stocks with market caps above $100 billion.
The rally hasn't cooled in 2026. As of the Jan. 15 close, Goldman shares were up about 11% year-to-date (YTD). The company's latest earnings report, released that day, helped push the stock up roughly 4.6%. A closer look at Goldman's results and commentary offers reasons for optimism about the stock's outlook.
Goldman’s Q4: Revenue Falls, Profit Booms
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Discover how to invest in the fund Trump uses to collect this income >>In Q4 2025, Goldman Sachs reported revenue of $13.45 billion, a decline of 3% from the prior-year quarter and well below analyst projections of $14.3 billion.
However, Goldman beat expectations on earnings per share (EPS). EPS came in at $14.01, up 17% year-over-year and well above the $11.52 analysts had forecast.
The divergence between revenue and EPS was driven by a material change in its Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) credit card business. On Jan. 7, Goldman announced it will sell the Apple Card business to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) over the next 24 months.
Under accounting rules, that decision reduced reported revenue by $2.26 billion while increasing profit by $2.48 billion, distorting comparisons with Wall Street forecasts. The move also aligns with Goldman's broader strategy: consumer lending has not been a core strength. RBC analyst Gerald Cassidy estimates Goldman has recorded roughly $7 billion in consumer-lending losses since 2020.
Global Banking and Markets remains Goldman's most important segment, accounting for more than 77% of total revenue last quarter. The segment performed strongly: revenue rose 22%, with investment banking fees and net equity revenues both up 25%.
Price Targets Paint a Mixed Picture Around GS
The consensus price target on Goldman sits near $850, which implies roughly an 11% downside from recent levels.
Analysts have moved in different directions following the results—Wells Fargo & Company raised its target from $970 to $1,050, while Autonomous Research lowered its target from $1,047 to $960.
Targets for Goldman vary widely. For example, HSBC published a $604 target on Jan. 7, while Jefferies released a $1,087 target on Jan. 6. Those estimates imply shares could fall about 38% (HSBC) or rise roughly 11% (Jefferies).
Given the market reaction to the results, other analysts are likely to adjust their targets in the coming days. Investors should watch those updates to gauge where experts see GS trading in 2026.
Investment Banking Could Propel GS Further, But Valuation Risk Looms
Goldman is bullish on investment banking for 2026. After reporting "high levels of client engagement" last year, the firm expects activity to pick up. Goldman says its investment banking backlog is the highest in four years, replenishing itself even after a strong Q4 and a robust 2025. CEO David Solomon suggested businesses are more optimistic about potential mergers and acquisitions (M&A) under the Trump administration than under the previous administration.
Large M&A deals typically require regulatory approval, and many expect the Trump administration to be more permissive. An easier regulatory backdrop would be a tailwind for Goldman, boosting demand for its advisory services. Solomon said CEOs see a window of opportunity to pursue large deals now, given the likelihood that future administrations may scrutinize them more closely.
The rapid surge in Goldman's valuation during 2025 introduces valuation risk going forward. Still, momentum in investment banking and management's outlook suggest the company could sustain growth, supporting a constructive view of the shares—though investors should remain mindful of valuation as a potential headwind.
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