Did Trump Just Destroy the Silver Trade?

By Michael Salvatore, Editor, TradeSmith Daily

In This Digest:

What Amazon’s big copper deal tells us
Semiconductors are white hot, and the Chaikin Flash Portfolio is hotter
Trump may have just popped the silver bubble
The top themes emerging on the Predictive Alpha leaderboard
A seasonal signal to take advantage of
Your last opportunity to test drive TradeSmith’s most popular software for free

Amazon is scrambling for copper…

News broke Thursday that Amazon.com (AMZN) is partnering with Nuton Technologies, a private venture by British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto (RIO).

As part of the deal, Amazon will secure copper supply from Nuton to build data centers for its cloud-computing division Amazon Web Services (AWS).

AWS already operates one of the largest global data-center footprints on Earth.

Now, AI is dramatically increasing the amount of compute power, electricity, and infrastructure those facilities need.

And that requires lots of copper to handle those massive electrical loads — from power delivery to internal wiring and cooling systems.

You may not think of Amazon as an AI stock. It’s more closely linked in most folks’ minds with those brown boxes on your doorstep, Ring doorbells, and Alexa speakers.

But this story shows that Amazon sits at the center of the AI boom.

And it’s becoming more and more clear that materials and energy are the top AI trade of the moment.

Remember that tech titans Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META) all secured long-term nuclear energy contracts last year.

And even back in 2022, Tesla (TSLA) partnered with both Talon Metals for nickel supply and Piedmont Lithium for a steady supply of lithium – both key ingredients for the large batteries that power Tesla’s EVs.

Not to mention the supply crunch going on in computer components right now. That’s sent the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) up more than 7.2% year-to-date, vs. a mere 1.26% gain for the Nasdaq 100 tech index.

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And the first five trades of our newly introduced Chaikin Flash Portfolio are all semi stocks…

Not because we were so brilliant as to pick them. But because TradeSmith’s master algorithm did.

In one of our newest trading strategies, TradeSmith scans for bullish patterns among the Nasdaq 100 stocks using our new Short-Term Health signal and Marc Chaikin’s Power Gauge.

Then, a proprietary machine learning system narrows it down to five stocks that, together, strike the right balance of risk and reward.

We call it the Chaikin Flash Portfolio.

For the initial five picks we released on Jan. 5, the algorithm happened to select high-momentum semi stocks. And that was the right call. As I write, the portfolio as a whole is already up 12.4%.

Out of respect for the Chaikin Flash Portfolio subscribers, I won’t reveal the names of the stocks here. And they’re all above our recommended buy range anyway.

But if you’re not subscribed, keep an eye out for if and when we open membership again.

Meanwhile, in the silver market, Trump may have just popped the bubble…

In comments on Friday, Trump shifted the odds in the battle for the next Fed Chair considerably by suggesting he’s dropping one top contender: Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council.

Bloomberg offers us the Trump quote on this:

“I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth,” Trump told Hassett during a White House event. “If I move him, these Fed guys — certainly the one we have now — they don’t talk much. I would lose you. It’s a serious concern to me.”

In an instant, the odds that the “other Kevin,” Kevin Warsh, would lead the Fed shot up to 60%:

That likely settles at least one piece of the “Warsh + No Tariffs” portfolio we designed last week. (The Supreme Court decision is still pending and didn’t release last Wednesday as many anticipated.)

Now we can speculate that we’re going to get a more hawkish and deliberate Fed policymaker than previously thought. Kevin Warsh is a former Fed governor and isn’t seen to be as likely to cut rates at the same pace as Kevin Hassett… who currently has Trump’s ear in the White House.

That speculation is creating knock-on effects.

For one, the dollar reversed its earlier losses and continued its 2026 surge, now up more than 1% against a basket of other major currencies.

And for two, silver – which has seen its price surge more than 20% this year – took a bath. It fell by about 3.5%, its worst decline since it fell by 9% on December 29.

After all, if Fed policy is going to be more measured, that’s good news for the dollar. It means the Fed is less likely to risk inflation by slashing rates lower – which would make hard assets like silver attractive.

It’s far too early to tell if this is just a bump in the road for silver or the beginning of a nastier decline. But we should keep in mind the warning signs that Alpha Signals editor Lucas Downey found last week. As he wrote last Sunday:

Since 2006, whenever SLV has reached an 85+ [on its Relative Strength Index (RSI)], the ETF has seen:

One-month average returns of -7.9%
Three-month returns of -5.9%
Six-month returns of -9.9%
12-month returns of -15.1%

Bottom line – silver has rarely been higher after cresting such a strongly overbought level – and slower rate cuts are unlikely to help.

Here are the top themes emerging in Predictive Alpha…

Predictive Alpha is TradeSmith’s AI-based forecasting tool. Think of it like a “Large Numbers Model” rather than a “Large Language Model” like ChatGPT. Instead of guessing the next likely word in a sequence, Predictive Alpha guesses the next number.

It does this by factoring in both recent and historical price momentum, along with other factors that are closely guarded secrets in our firm.

I make a habit of watching the top Predictive Alpha forecasts by both potential gain and historical win rate. We find that the top forecasts tend to give you a good idea of what’s trending in the markets better than the headlines.

I ran a screen for the top 10 bullish forecasts in Predictive Alpha across the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 400 mid-cap indexes right now.

Check this out… It’s a laundry list of stocks in exactly the industries we’ve been talking about lately:

Precious metals mining company Hecla (HL) is right at the top, with a forecasted move of 15.8% by Feb. 17. Following that is lithium producer Albemarle (ALB)… Industrial semiconductor firm MKS… and digital storage company Western Digital (WDC).

Energy storage company EnerSys (ENS), networking and data center company Coherent (COHR), and industrial materials company Hexcel (HXL) also all appear on the top.

In other words, the top AI-based forecasts are in semiconductors, batteries, the materials required to make them, and the precious metals in a big boom right now. Take note and plan accordingly.

And at least one of these is on a strong seasonal signal right now…

Take a look at the Seasonality chart of MKSI. Just last week, on Jan. 13, it entered a new Seasonal Green Zone window:

That window has seen MKSI higher in 13 of the past 15 years… and accounting for both wins and losses, it was up 4.8% on average.

This seasonal signal just gives another layer of data to back up the trade in semiconductors.

The beauty of it is – you can get these signals on pretty much any stock you want. Plus, indexes, ETFs… you name it.

Go here to see exact times of year when your stock tends to shoot up -- year after year.

We’re opening up free access to our seasonality tool when you register for our webinar on Tuesday, Jan. 20: Prediction 2026.

See, a cycle is kicking off this year that requires a much more nimble approach to investing…

And, beginning Jan. 28, we expect traders will see the year’s biggest money-making opportunity – if you apply our system to turn a chaotic market in 2026 to your advantage.

We’re launching a powerful new feature that does exactly that. Click here to unlock free access to our seasonality tool and save your spot for our Prediction 2026.

To your health and wealth,

Michael Salvatore signature