We hit 6925 Friday before scrambling back to 6940. That's not a recovery - that's a dead cat bounce. Multi-week range breaks like this lead to immediate 3-5% drops 70% of the time. The math says...
| | | | Here's what happened Friday that has me concerned heading into this shortened week. | We closed at 6940 in the S&P. That might not sound alarming to you, but it should. | For seven weeks - seven weeks - we've been stuck in this identical trading range. And Friday, we cracked right through the floor I've been warning about. | That 6950 level? We blew right through it intraday, hitting 6925 before scrambling back to close at 6940. | | | | Now, I know what you're thinking - "Don, we recovered, we closed above support." But that's exactly the kind of thinking that gets traders in trouble. | When you break multi-week range support intraday and barely recover, that's not strength. That's a warning shot. | Let me give you some concrete examples of what happens next: | November 2025: S&P broke below 5,975 support after a 6-week range. Result? 3.2% drop over the next week down to the 5,800s. | March 2025: Failed the 5,200 level after 8 weeks of consolidation. Fast 4% drop to 5,000 in just three sessions. | October 2022: Broke 3,600 support amid the Fed hiking cycle. Sharp 5% plunge to 3,400 within a week. | The pattern is consistent. | Multi-week range breaks lead to immediate downside 70% of the time, averaging 3-5% moves that happen fast. | From 6950 down to 6850 - that's the math the technical structure is giving us. And based on these historical precedents, it doesn't happen slowly. | In this weekend breakdown, I break down: | Why closing at 6940 after hitting 6925 intraday is actually worse than you think The exact scenario that unfolds if we can't reclaim 6950 early this week Why AI's collapse and this insane rotation into garbage sectors are making this worse The bond market explosion that's turning a technical setup into a fundamental problem Specific levels and setups for both sides heading into this 4-day week
| Range breaks don't wait for convenient timing. And we just got our warning shot. | You can watch my full take here. | To your success, | Don Kaufman | P.S. While I'm tracking this institutional fear rotation, Brandon Chapman will be live tomorrow at 2 pm et. showing HOW to spot the individual option flows driving these moves using his Ghost Prints Console. | Markets may be closed, but you can see exactly which names are getting the smart money option activity. | Sign up here to attend. | | | | With the S&P sitting at 6940 after breaking through 6950 support intraday Friday, how are you positioned for the potential breakdown to 6850? | | | |
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