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Dear Fellow Traveler: About a decade ago, a friend handed me a New York Times crossword puzzle. She was stumped on an empty clue... It was a five-letter word. The clue was “HIJKLMNO.” I sat there with pizza on my shirt, repeating the letters out loud like an idiot until I finally said, “H to O.” “H2O,” my friend said. “Oh... It’s water.” I always remember that clue for its clever misdirection. I also think of it every time someone asks me about investing in water. The puzzle works because it makes you see something obvious in a completely different way. And that’s exactly the problem with water as an investment. Everyone sees it, but nobody sees it as an asset. Some people try to make it interesting… They even made a James Bond movie about water rights. In Quantum of Solace, the villain doesn’t want gold or oil. He wants to control Bolivia’s water supply, privatize it, jack up prices, and turn that water into political leverage. Critics hated the movie (I think it’s underrated). Economists should have given it an Oscar. What Makes It “Not an Investment”There’s a funny thing about commodity markets. If a commodity is optional, media and speculators obsess over it. If it’s essential to life, we tend to ignore it. Oil gets 20 talking heads, a CNBC chyron, and a retired general explaining geopolitics with a laser pointer that he brought from home. Gold gets central banks, vault footage, and commercials where a former NFL player urgently tells you to put GOLD in an IRA before civilization collapses. Copper gets a Ph.D. They call it “Doctor Copper,” which is ironic, because that man never accepted my insurance. Water gets almost nothing. There’s no coverage around it. People care far more about the stocks of companies that put water into bottles than about the resource itself.
That isn’t an accident. It’s the nature of those markets… and the commodities. Gold can sit in a vault for decades without changing anyone’s day. Oil can spike and you complain while filling up, but then drive away. These commodities create anxiety rather than urgency Anxiety is perfect for speculation. It drives financial publishing as a result… It invites forecasts, panels, and price targets that sound more like sports betting odds than analysis. Water doesn’t offer that comfort. There’s no real substitute, no meaningful hedge, and no way to delay consumption. You have it, or you don’t have that thing. Once a resource crosses that specific line, speculation stops being entertainment. Instead, things start to feel uncomfortable…. So Boring It Gets Exciting Once a DecadeI’ve written about water as an investment before. I recall very smart commodity traders telling live audiences that the price of a cotton stock would quadruple if we focused only on California water rights, not the actual crop. Even today, I did a deep dive into a commodity linked to water, and the stock I recommended is trading well below its net asset value because people ignore its water potential entirely. The U.S. lacks a reformed water market like Australia has. If we had one, those stocks would likely surge in value. Retail investors ask, “How do I trade water?” Sovereign wealth funds ask, “Who controls it?” That distinction matters more than most people realize. Long-term capital doesn’t care about daily price moves. It cares about inevitability… Big firms invest based on population growth, climate volatility, urban sprawl, and agriculture… stuff that really matters on the long-term scale. Water rights aren’t a trade. They’re a choke point. If you own land without water rights, you own dirt with ambition. If you own land with senior water rights, you own a toll booth on the future. Guess which one sovereign funds prefer. What To Do About ItYou’re not going to buy a river. But you can think like someone who would. Start looking at companies where water rights sit quietly on the balance sheet, undervalued because analysts don’t know how to model scarcity. Agricultural land trusts, certain REITs, and resource companies with Western U.S. exposure often hold water assets that don’t appear in headlines. When you see a stock trading below net asset value, and nobody can explain why, check the water. Pay attention to California. The state’s water rights system is a 150-year-old legal fever dream, but it’s also a template for how scarcity gets priced when there’s no choice left. Senior water rights holders are winners… If someone upstream claimed the water first in 1897, congratulations, you are now thirsty. Water is not an emerging theme. It’s a delayed one with not a lot of experts per capita. The investments are happening, the rights are being consolidated, and the politics are a mess. Retail just hasn’t noticed because there’s no o dopamine hit. When water finally becomes “interesting” to the public, it will be because someone can’t turn on the tap. At that point, it’s not a trade. It’s a bill. Water rights are the real liquid asset. If you want to see my latest idea in this space, click here… A Few Quick Thoughts
The Week in Review It’s a Saturday Chart Party...A lot came in the last week… and the last month. Check out our chart analysis. Big Tech Gets the Electric BillThe Trump administration wants to shift who pays for new electricity generation around AI. Here are the winners and losers. Things I Think I Think... At Tax Time...What is the purpose of a market? To sell… Well, what exactly does that mean? So, I Think I’ll Start With Europe...Where does the next crisis originate? I’m putting some money on Brussels. Five Things I Think I Think...What’s the most dangerous chart in finance? It starts with money flowing here. All right… Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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