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Franco-Nevada May Be the Best Way to Play a Commodity Supercycle
Submitted by Chris Markoch. Published: 3/13/2026.
Key Points
- Franco-Nevada’s royalty and streaming model allows it to benefit from rising commodity prices without the operational risks faced by traditional mining companies.
- The company offers diversified exposure to gold, energy, and industrial metals, positioning it as a unique way to invest in a potential commodity supercycle.
- Despite consolidating after a strong run, Franco-Nevada stock remains in a long-term bullish trend supported by strong cash flow and analyst optimism.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
After an initial pop following earnings, Franco-Nevada Corp. (NYSE: FNV) stock is essentially flat since it reported fourth-quarter results on March 10. The royalty/streaming company posted a strong quarter, but its bullish story seems to be getting lost in the broader market turmoil.
It shouldn’t. The world is at the beginning of a commodities supercycle, and Franco-Nevada offers investors an intriguing—and potentially superior—way to participate.
A Gold-Focused Tollbooth on the Mining Sector
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Add yourself to the distribution list here.Precious metals are having their moment. Gold and silver hit record highs earlier this year, and platinum and palladium are strengthening. Beyond 2026, investors are already positioning for rare earth metals and other niche materials that will power electrification and defense-sector demand.
That is why Franco-Nevada is compelling. Unlike traditional miners and other basic materials stocks, Franco-Nevada doesn’t own or operate mines. Instead, it provides upfront capital to mining and energy companies in exchange for royalties or streams on future production.
In practice, Franco-Nevada collects a slice of revenue or metal output from a broad portfolio of assets without bearing the risks of CapEx overruns, labor disputes, or escalating operating costs. In a supercycle driven by higher commodity prices and persistent cost inflation, that model can be especially powerful.
For investors who are bullish on gold but wary of the headaches that come with owning individual miners, Franco-Nevada effectively acts as a high-margin tollbooth on the sector. If gold continues to grind higher, more of that upside can drop through to Franco-Nevada’s cash flow than to a traditional miner whose budget is constantly eaten by fuel, steel, and wages.
Beyond Gold: A Diversified Supercycle Play
There’s a bigger story developing. Commodities of all kinds—including oil and copper—are entering a supercycle. Years of underinvestment, rising geopolitical risk, and the demands of decarbonization and re‑shoring are straining supply just as structural demand builds.
Unlike gold and silver, investors can’t own physical oil, and many choose to avoid storing physical metals for cost, security, or tax reasons. That makes exchange-traded funds (ETFs) an attractive choice for some, but owning metals “on paper” carries risks such as tracking error, roll costs in futures-based products, and the need to manage multiple positions across different commodities.
That is what makes Franco-Nevada such an appealing option. While gold remains its core, the company also has meaningful exposure to oil, gas, and base metals like copper through its royalty and streaming portfolio.
Investors get a single-stock way to participate in a broad commodities upcycle: gold as the anchor, with embedded optionality on energy and industrial metals that stand to benefit if the supercycle thesis plays out. And because Franco-Nevada’s contracts are structured on volumes and revenues—not operating profits—it can benefit from rising commodity prices without shouldering the full operational and environmental risk that producers face.
Earnings and Outlook Back the Thesis
Franco-Nevada's latest earnings report illustrates why the model works. The company continues to generate high margins and robust free cash flow, anchored by record or near-record volumes from key gold and platinum group metals (PGM) assets as well as steady contributions from energy and copper-linked deals.
Looking ahead, management expects 2026 gold-equivalent ounce (GEO) volumes to be flat to modestly higher versus a strong 2025 base. The forecast does not include potential upside from new projects that could ramp faster or from reactivated dormant assets.
This supports the supercycle thesis: Franco-Nevada doesn’t need massive production growth to benefit. It simply needs prices to remain constructive while its portfolio performs. Analysts may disagree on precise price targets for gold, silver, and other commodities, but many expect prices to move higher.
But Do You Buy FNV Stock at These Levels?
Long-term investors looking to buy-and-hold Franco-Nevada as part of a diversified portfolio should have little hesitation. The stock is in a long-term uptrend with additional upside supported by both fundamentals and technical structure. Even with the stock trading slightly above the consensus price target, analysts still rate FNV a Moderate Buy. Many will publish updated views in the week following earnings.
For those considering FNV as a swing trade, a better opportunity may be coming. The stock is consolidating recent gains after a strong run into and through earnings. Momentum has cooled since an overbought surge in late January, and more recent pushes to new highs have shown less extreme momentum readings.
That suggests it may not be wise to chase the stock higher right now. A better risk-reward entry could come on dips toward recent support zones. As long as those pullbacks hold above those support levels, more upside remains available.
Broadcom's AI Momentum Could Be Far From Over
By Leo Miller. Originally Published: 3/13/2026.
Key Points
- Broadcom topped Q1 estimates and raised Q2 guidance, but CEO Hock Tan's commentary on 2027 AI chip revenue may be the bigger story.
- The company walked back earlier warnings about gross margin pressure from system sales, and analysts think they know why.
- Post-earnings price target revisions suggest Wall Street sees meaningful upside from current levels, with every updating analyst maintaining a bullish rating.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Semiconductor behemoth Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) scored a solid win after its latest earnings release, with shares rising roughly 4.8% following the beat-and-raise report. Beyond the company's Q1 fiscal 2026 (FY2026) results and Q2 guidance, Broadcom offered other commentary that should reassure investors, and Wall Street analysts pushed price targets higher.
Broadcom Boosts Forecasts: Sees AI Sales Surging in 2027
In Q1, Broadcom's revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) both beat expectations. The firm's Q2 revenue guide of $22 billion also materially exceeded estimates. In addition to those near-term beats, the company updated its longer-term outlook.
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Add yourself to the distribution list here.In its Q4 2025 report, Broadcom said it had an artificial intelligence (AI) backlog of $73 billion, which it expected to convert into revenue over the following 18 months. While substantial, some investors had hoped for an even larger figure.
Importantly, in Q1 Broadcom said its 2027 visibility had "dramatically improved." CEO Hock Tan said, "Today, in fact, we have line of sight to achieve AI revenue from chips, just chips, in excess of $100 billion in 2027." That marks a meaningful acceleration in Broadcom's AI revenue expectations.
To put the numbers in perspective: the prior $73 billion backlog over 18 months (six quarters) implies roughly $12.2 billion of AI revenue per quarter. A $100 billion annual run rate in 2027 (four quarters) implies about $25 billion per quarter. In other words, Broadcom's new forecast implies approximately a doubling of its AI revenue run rate in 2027, which aligns with its claim of dramatically improved visibility.
AVGO's Gross Margin Confusion: BofA Points to Price Hikes for Anthropic
Broadcom also softened earlier comments that rising AI sales would pressure gross margins in 2026. On the latest call, Hock Tan said, "We will not be affected by the gross margin and by more and more AI products going out." That contrasts with what Chief Financial Officer Kirsten Spears said in Q4 2025, when she warned gross margins "will go down" in the second half of 2026.
The original warning reflected Broadcom shipping more "systems" in 2026 — servers that package its processors with other components such as memory. Because system sales typically pass higher memory costs to customers, they carry lower gross margins. Broadcom is supplying these systems to the AI lab Anthropic.
The reason Broadcom shifted its gross margin message is not explicit. Analysts at Bank of America offered a plausible explanation: Broadcom may be raising the prices it charges Anthropic. If so, those price increases could offset the margin dilution from system sales — a sign of pricing power stemming from Broadcom's technology and limited competition.
With relatively few custom chip developers matching Broadcom's capabilities and AI labs prioritizing rapid infrastructure deployment, customers may have limited leverage to resist price increases.
Updated Price Targets Signal More Upside for Broadcom
The MarketBeat 12-month consensus price target for Broadcom now sits near $435, implying upside of a bit more than 20%. Looking at price-target revisions after the earnings report provides additional perspective.
Among the roughly five updates tracked by MarketBeat, the average target rose by about 3%, suggesting analysts viewed Broadcom's results as justifying a solid — if not spectacular — re-rating.
Meanwhile, the average of all targets updated after the report is considerably higher, at approximately $489, which would imply upside of more than 35% from current levels.
Notably, the analysts who updated targets maintained Buy or Overweight ratings on AVGO. Those incorporating the latest data are among the most bullish, reinforcing Broadcom's Moderate Buy consensus rating.
AVGO's AI Business Is Clicking as Forward P/E Settles
Overall, Broadcom's AI business appears to be firing on most cylinders: the company significantly improved its 2027 outlook and sought to allay margin concerns. That said, investors will want to monitor whether the company's margin assumptions hold up as memory prices continue to rise.
Broadcom's forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) near 26x shows signs of relative undervaluation versus history. It is modestly below the three-year average of about 29x and well below the 52-week average near 36x.
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