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Intuitive Machines Holds Ground Despite Earnings Miss
Authored by Chris Markoch. Posted: 3/20/2026.
Key Points
- Intuitive Machines stock held steady despite a significant earnings miss as investors focused on strong forward guidance for 2026.
- The company’s revenue forecast of up to $1 billion is supported by a growing backlog and recent strategic acquisitions.
- A technical Bollinger Band squeeze and high short interest suggest LUNR stock could see a major move in the coming months.
- Special Report: The Biggest IPO Ever: Claim Your Stake Today
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) has seen positive price action after delivering its Q4 2025 earnings report on March 19. Investors may have expected worse. Intuitive Machines, which is not yet profitable, reported a loss per share of $0.34, wider than the forecasted loss of $0.05. Revenue also came in light, at $44.79 million versus analysts' $53.37 million estimate.
There were, however, positives in the report, and the company is guiding for a strong 2026. The worst may be behind it, but execution will matter more than ever.
Investors Have Seen the Acquisition, Now They Need the Growth
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Analyst Jim Rickards believes gold could climb to $10,000 per ounce or higher in the coming years - and he says investors still have time to position ahead of the move.
His top recommendation is a $2 stock he describes as sitting on the largest gold deposit in the world, with an extraction green light potentially arriving April 15.
See Jim Rickards' number one gold recommendation for 2026It's easy for companies involved in lunar missions to make investors overlook the fundamentals. The bullish case for Intuitive Machines is forming in those fundamentals. The company spent 2025 in acquisition mode, acquiring KinetX Aerospace and Lanteris Space Systems.
Deals like these are common for aerospace companies that need to scale quickly. According to CEO Steve Altemus, the purchases were intended to "significantly expand our scale, addressable market, and growth opportunities."
But it came at a cost. The company reported cash outflows of approximately $403 million for the Lanteris purchase, and related expenses reduced cash on hand by more than 50% year over year to $272 million. Even with a $176 million capital raise, liquidity remains a concern.
That makes LUNR's post-earnings gain consequential. Investors will only reward potential for so long; sooner or later, the company must deliver.
The encouraging sign is the company's forward guidance. Intuitive Machines issued full-year revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion. Even at the low end, that would represent more than a fourfold increase from 2025. Management said the backlog supports roughly two-thirds of that outlook.
Technicals Paint a Mixed Picture
The daily chart shows a stock pausing after an explosive run. LUNR surged from roughly $8 to nearly $24 between December and January before pulling back into the consolidation range where it trades today. That kind of cooldown is normal — and often healthy — after a move of that magnitude.
What's attracting technical attention now is a Bollinger Band squeeze on the daily chart. After expanding during January's rally, the bands have narrowed through February and into March. This setup typically precedes a significant directional move. The 50-day simple moving average sits near $18, with the stock trading just below it around $17, under the band midline.
The nuance matters: while a consolidation pattern is present, the stock is leaning bearish within that range rather than pressing the upper band. Bulls would like to see LUNR close back above the 50-day SMA.
By itself, the Bollinger squeeze is neutral — it signals that volatility is likely, not the direction of the move. Given the fundamental picture, the direction of the breakout may end up telling investors where LUNR is headed in 2026.
Patience May Be Rewarded
Investors should remember that Intuitive Machines is not yet profitable and may not be for some time. That doesn't automatically make it a poor investment. The space economy is expanding, and the company's backlog indicates its growth story is grounded in contracts, not just speculation.
After a 143% gain over the past 12 months, many investors are understandably cautious about pushing the stock significantly higher. This sets up a familiar tension between institutional investors and retail traders.
Institutions remain net buyers and continue to accumulate the stock at a ratio exceeding roughly 2.5 to 1. At the same time, traders are actively shorting LUNR — short interest sits above 27% — which could apply downward pressure, especially if the broader market weakens.
Intuitive Machines has grown into a mid-cap company that is drawing analyst attention, and most analysts are constructive. But with some investors favoring safety, holding LUNR will require conviction. If management executes on its guidance and the backlog converts, that conviction could be rewarded within a quarter or two.
3 Rare Earth Stocks Quietly Building the Next Supply Chain
Submitted by Bridget Bennett. Article Published: 3/16/2026.
Key Points
- Rare earth and critical-minerals stocks are back on investors’ radar as geopolitical pressure mounts to build supply chains outside China.
- Dylan Jovine points to three lesser-known names positioned across the chain: Solvay in processing, Perpetua Resources in U.S. mining with antimony exposure, and The Metals Company in deep-sea metals.
- The shared catalyst is policy-driven momentum—reshoring efforts and permitting decisions—that could reshape demand for both mining and processing capacity.
- Special Report: The Biggest IPO Ever: Claim Your Stake Today
Renewed geopolitical tensions and the global race for critical minerals have brought rare earth stocks back into focus. In a recent conversation with Dylan Jovine of Behind the Markets, attention turned to how the United States and its allies are attempting to rebuild domestic supply chains for materials that power everything from AI infrastructure to advanced weapons systems.
Jovine argues the rare earth story is far bigger than most investors realize. These materials are critical to national security, energy independence and the global technology race. As governments look to reduce reliance on China for key minerals and processing capacity, companies positioned across the rare earth supply chain could see renewed investor interest.
Former White House Insider Predicts New Gold Surge (Ad)
Analyst Jim Rickards believes gold could climb to $10,000 per ounce or higher in the coming years - and he says investors still have time to position ahead of the move.
His top recommendation is a $2 stock he describes as sitting on the largest gold deposit in the world, with an extraction green light potentially arriving April 15.
See Jim Rickards' number one gold recommendation for 2026Three companies stood out in the discussion, each targeting a different part of the rare earth ecosystem: processing, mining and emerging resource extraction.
The Geopolitics Behind the Rare Earth Boom
Asked about the broader drivers behind renewed interest in the sector, Jovine pointed to an increasingly complex global power struggle between the United States and China.
“There are two chess boards that are at play here,” Jovine said. “There’s the Middle East chessboard, but there’s also a bigger global chessboard where the two players are the United States and China.”
Rare earth minerals have become a central piece of that global contest. While the materials themselves are relatively abundant, processing them into usable components remains heavily concentrated in China.
That imbalance has forced Western governments to rethink supply chains. Jovine emphasized that the issue extends well beyond electric vehicles or consumer electronics.
“A lot of folks don’t know that every F-35 fighter jet carries about 920 pounds of rare earths in it,” Jovine explained. “This is about national security, AI development and a whole bunch of industries we depend on.”
As a result, policymakers are increasingly focused on reshoring both mining and processing capabilities.
A Rare Earth Processing Opportunity
One company that caught Jovine’s attention is Solvay (OTC: SLVYY), a European chemical firm with growing importance in rare earth processing.
Processing is often the overlooked piece of the supply chain. Mining gets most of the attention, but turning raw materials into usable components requires specialized chemical expertise—and that is Solvay’s niche.
The company processes key rare earth elements used in magnets and defense technologies, including neodymium and praseodymium. These materials are essential for advanced manufacturing, military systems and electric motors.
Despite its strategic importance, Jovine noted the stock trades at a relatively modest valuation. “It’s selling for roughly eight to ten times normalized cash flow,” he said. “And the company generates a lot of free cash flow that it pays out to shareholders.”
With a dividend yield near 9% and a market capitalization around $3 billion, the stock represents what Jovine described as a rare value opportunity within the sector. As Western governments push to rebuild processing capacity outside China, companies like Solvay could see growing demand for their capabilities.
A Gold Miner With a Critical Minerals Twist
The second company discussed was Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA), which is developing the Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho.
At first glance, Perpetua appears to be a conventional gold miner. Jovine highlighted a unique factor that makes the story more compelling: the project also produces antimony, a critical mineral used in military applications, batteries and advanced materials.
Because the antimony is extracted alongside gold, it significantly improves the project’s economics. The company’s all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for gold production is estimated at roughly $435 per ounce, placing it among the lowest-cost producers globally. “That makes it one of the most efficient miners in the world,” Jovine said.
The ability to produce both gold and antimony creates a powerful combination. As governments search for secure sources of critical minerals, Perpetua’s dual-resource project could attract strategic interest.
Mining Critical Metals From the Ocean Floor
The final company highlighted in the conversation was The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC), which is developing technology to harvest polymetallic nodules from the ocean floor.
These potato-shaped rocks contain high concentrations of nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese—metals essential for batteries, energy infrastructure and defense technologies.
The company has spent years developing systems capable of retrieving these nodules from deep-sea environments. “They’ve actually proven they can mine this kind of material under the ocean,” Jovine noted.
The real catalyst for investors could come from the regulatory side. Mining projects depend heavily on permits and government approvals, and recent signals from policymakers have been encouraging. “In mining, these stories are really permitting stories,” Jovine said. If approvals move forward, the company could gain access to vast undersea deposits that remain largely untapped.
A Supply Chain Story Investors Should Watch
Taken together, the three companies illustrate how broad the rare earth opportunity has become. Some firms are focused on mining new sources of critical materials. Others specialize in processing and refining them into usable components. Still others are exploring entirely new resource frontiers.
What unites them is a growing geopolitical push to rebuild secure supply chains. As Jovine put it, the shift is inevitable. “This is just a massive wave as rare earth production gets reshored,” he said.
For investors, the challenge may not be identifying the trend—but finding companies positioned early enough to benefit from it.
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