You are a free subscriber to Me and the Money Printer. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Capital Wave Report - which features our Red-Green market signals, subscribe here. Good morning: Futures are lower across the board after the weekend strikes on Iran. &P futures are down just over 1%, Nasdaq futures are closer to 1.3–1.4%, and the Russell is leading lower again. It’s broad weakness to start the week, with small caps taking the brunt of it early. On the S&P specifically, equal-weight momentum remains bearish at -6, while the cap-weighted reading is holding at 1.8. That divergence is the key tell. If large-cap tech keeps its footing, the index can try to stabilize. If the cap-weight reading rolls over and joins the equal-weight reading, downside pressure will spread quickly. That’s the internal line in the sand this morning. Energy is the clear outlier. Brent surged into the low $80s overnight and WTI is holding in the low $70s after a sharp move higher. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is driving that bid. Gold is higher. The dollar is firm. Yields are moving up as well. This is the weekend’s geopolitical premium showing up across assets, and oil is setting the tone for everything else Volatility jumped right into the top of the range we’ve been tracking and, once again, tagged that upper boundary almost precisely. If anyone doubted that trend, this morning is a clean reminder of how well it has held. This is the trend until it isn’t.
Every time we’ve pushed above that level, the market has turned hard the other way. That does not mean it happens immediately. But this is where these moves start. If we spike above it and fail to hold, that’s when you start looking the other direction. Same with oil. Let it run if it wants to. But if it gaps, stretches, and can’t extend, that’s where the opportunity shifts. Let the MACD confirm it. Outside of energy and basic materials, there isn’t much green on the screen. Most sectors are red, and participation is thin. That tells you how defensive the positioning is coming into the open. AI and semis will matter later this week with Broadcom and Marvell reporting, but today oil is the lever. If large-cap tech can’t find its footing, that S&P equal-weight versus cap-weight split likely resolves lower The open should be volatile. Let the first wave clear before forcing anything.
Watch how the 8 and 20 moving averages align on your intraday charts and whether MACD expands or starts to roll. Extended pushes into upper or lower deviation bands should be treated as potential fade zones rather than chase entries. We stay reactive. Conditions are broadly bearish, but the first hour will tell us whether this turns into steady pressure or sets up reversion trades. I’ll break this down live at 8:45. Join me and we’ll walk through the charts, the names that matter, and what needs to be on your watch list today. Click here and I’ll see you shortly. Market outlook
Momentum - Red Across the Board All three indices are confirmed bearish coming into the week. S&P at -6, Nasdaq at -2, Russell at -69. The Russell has been negative for 22 straight sessions now. The sector picture deteriorated fast over the back half of last week. Financials went from positive to -91 in a single session... the worst reading on the screen. Technology is at -50. Consumer cyclicals at -43. Friday was pretty ugly across the board. The Russell dropped nearly 2%. NVIDIA had another bad session. Financials got hit hard. And the hot PPI print pushed rate cut expectations further out. What’s still working... energy, healthcare, consumer staples, utilities. Materials held up on the week. Industrials have been solid on the month. And communication services is sitting right at the line, looks like it wants to rotate higher, but we’ll see how that holds after this morning’s open. With Iran over the weekend and futures pointing lower, there’s a lot of new uncertainty on top of a market already confirmed as bearish. Expect some real volatility this week. Insider Buying: Pretty Good for a Friday
Top Insider Buys of Last 10 Days - Form 4 Documents
Market Liquidity Michael Howell over at CrossBorder Capital has federal liquidity support at over $525 billion since the start of the year, and it still hasn’t been enough. Banks and financials keep breaking down, private credit keeps leaking, and conditions keep tightening despite it all. The timing just got a lot more complicated. Tax season is about to drain reserves from the banking system, even though they’re already near multi-year lows. And whatever this weekend turns into, it’s not going to be cheap. Wars get financed through the bond market, and deficits were already running at 7-8% of GDP before a single missile was launched. If this escalates, the Treasury is going to need to issue even more debt into a market that’s already struggling to absorb what’s out there. Gold cleared $5,350 this morning, and at this point it’s just confirming what the funding markets have been pricing in for weeks. More support is coming, one way or another, and the only real question is how much it takes to hold things together. Stay positive. About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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