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This Month's Bonus Content
Oracle Bottoms: A Multi-Cloud Future Is Ahead—and UndervaluedAuthored by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 4/20/2026. 
Key Points
- Oracle's fear-driven sell-off is over, and the bottom is in, with AI underpinning the outlook.
- Fears of rising debt are offset by a swelling backlog and agentic tools to help sustain high-level growth.
- Institutions and analysts limit downside in Q2 while pointing to a robust upside.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) was among the hardest hit during the SaaS AI-disruption fear sell-off, but its bottom is in, and a robust rebound lies ahead. While Oracle is often classified as a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) stock, it is not simply a SaaS play; the company has invested heavily in cloud and AI. Today, Oracle operates as a hybrid SaaS/IaaS (Infrastructure-as-a-Service) provider, with services spanning multiple sectors and verticals. A critical detail is its multicloud capability, including partnerships with major hyperscalers—opening additional revenue streams even as Oracle competes with them. A key component of the strategy is portability. With Oracle in place, organizations can move data between clouds and access it where they need it, without the costly duplication that drives up storage and CPU/GPU usage. For many customers, Oracle’s database and related services can be used natively on Oracle’s clouds or run on a cloud of their choice. Oracle Expands Deal With AWS: Strengthens Cloud Position
A recently expanded deal with Amazon's (NASDAQ: AMZN) AWS highlights Oracle’s role in the AI and data center ecosystem. The expanded agreement enables multicloud users to interface with Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) in a native-like setting, accelerating AI development and deployments. Another example of Oracle’s strategic positioning is an expanded agreement with Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE). Bloom’s fuel cells offer fast deployment, low operating costs, and low emissions—features that make them well suited for data centers. The new deal more than doubles the prior agreement, reducing risk to Oracle’s outlook by helping ensure power needs can be met. Among the risks are debt and dilution. Rising demand, reflected in Oracle’s remaining performance obligation (RPO), has coincided with a marked increase in borrowing. The company plans to build dozens of data centers and is on track to more than double its data center count relative to 2025, using debt and share sales to fund the expansion. Activity in 2026 is expected to push debt well above $150 billion, and the total is forecast to continue rising through year-end. The near-term hurdle is negative cash flow; the longer-term risks are execution and sustained demand. The offsetting factor is the RPO. RPO measures contracted but unearned revenue and is growing at a triple-digit pace—up 325% to $553 billion as of the fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report. This backlog is supported by large, multi-year contracts with major hyperscalers and AI labs, with roughly 35% expected to be recognized within the next fiscal year. The key takeaway is that these contracts should more than cover the cost of data center expansion and generate additional revenue over time. To that end, the company has begun shifting toward more evergreen pricing models. Analysts and Institutions Provide Floor With Catalyst AheadAnalysts and institutional activity helped drive Oracle’s stock price correction: analysts lowered targets in Q1 2025, and institutional positioning—while uneven—remains generally positive. The pullback was driven largely by fear, but it was not uniformly bearish. Of 40 analysts covering the stock, the consensus is a Moderate Buy, with roughly a 75% buy-side bias. Price-target cuts put the market at the low end of the range, yet consensus forecasts still imply about a 50% upside, and there is a catalyst that could push prices higher. The catalyst is the upcoming earnings release. Analysts didn’t just cut price targets; they also trimmed revenue and earnings estimates despite the company’s strong fiscal Q3 performance and raised guidance. If Oracle outperforms the consensus view—roughly 20% revenue growth with margin pressure—and issues another favorable guide, the high-end target of $400 could come back into play, which would be enough to establish a fresh all-time high. Oracle Sets Up for Robust ReboundTechnical action is promising. Investors bought into the AWS news, sending ORCL up more than 25% in a single week. The move put the stock above its short- and long-term EMAs, leaving only the 150-day EMA as resistance. That indicator reflects mid- to long-term buying sentiment from institutional and buy-and-hold investors and may cap gains until the Q4 report in early June. If the market advances above that EMA, the next resistance levels are near $200 and $220. 
Additional catalysts include Oracle’s push into agentic AI. The company is weaving itself into the cloud fabric while advancing AI adoption through agentic tools. A new suite of vertical-specific tools—across financial services, healthcare, supply chain, human resources, and customer relationship management—is expected to drive long-term gains, helping sustain elevated growth well after the data center build-out is complete. |
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