Key Points
- AST SpaceMobile shares fell more than 20% in five sessions, hitting a one-year low and down about 67% from their May peak.
- SpaceX's plan to acquire low-band spectrum to boost Starlink Mobile's indoor connectivity has emerged as a fresh competitive threat to AST SpaceMobile.
- AST SpaceMobile faces additional pressure from a Piper Sandler downgrade, a new securities class-action lawsuit, heavy cash burn, and six straight quarterly earnings misses.
- Special Report: Why most people ignore my “boring” stock picks
Shares of space-based cellular broadband network provider AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) continued their descent this week, falling by more than 20% over the past five trading sessions, as a new headwind has entered the fray.
On Thursday, Oct. 15, the stock hit a new one-year low and is now changing hands at levels not seen since September 2025. From its all-time high on May 28, ASTS is now down around 67%.
As the Midland, Texas-based company continues to pursue its goal of expanding its low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation of BlueBird satellites to 45 by early 2027, here are headwinds investors should be aware of.
Musk Positions Starlink to Become a Major Mobile Carrier
After announcing in September that it will buy wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar (NASDAQ: ECHO), direct-to-cell (D2C) provider and AST SpaceMobile competitor SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX)announced on Oct. 8 that it will acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio of up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band.
The spectrum licenses could improve Starlink Mobile's indoor connectivity capabilities—a shift that has the potential to position the company as a major mobile carrier in the United States. It is worth noting that reliable service inside buildings will depend on the combined development of its satellite and terrestrial networks
The objective, according to a filing with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC), is for SpaceX to expand the capabilities of its Starlink constellation to “supercharge competition in the mobile market by ensuring all Americans have access to high-speed mobile broadband anywhere they go.”
The low-frequency radio spectrum, which will be purchased from investment firm Grain Management according to the FCC filing, is capable of penetrating walls, roofs, and other structures, overcoming a major current hurdle for Starlink’s LEO satellites.
While the spectrum agreement is pending FCC approval, the news—which SpaceX CEO Elon Musk called the “last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America—was enough to jolt major mobile carriers.
Major telecom stocks sold off on the news, with Verizon (NYSE: VZ)falling more than 10% on Oct. 9, and AT&T (NYSE: T) losing around 11%.
But SpaceX’s ambitions to expand its independent wireless footprint also drove down AST SpaceMobile’s stock by more than 10%, compounding the company’s recent struggles.
The Starlink Initiative Presents an Additional Headwind for AST SpaceMobile
While the SpaceX announcement was a natural progression following its September agreement with EchoStar, it presents a new challenge to AST SpaceMobile, which continues to pursue D2C connectivity at commercial scale.
The company has several catalysts working in its favor. Its routine launches have served as tailwinds for the stock, and its next cohort of BlueBird satellites could still join its LEO constellation this month.
AST SpaceMobile has strategic partnerships with more than 60 mobile network operator partnerships that collectively cover approximately 3 billion subscribers. Those strategic agreements include pacts with communication services sector mainstays AT&T, Verizon, Tokyo-based Rakuten (OTCMKTS: RKUNF), real estate investment trustAmerican Tower (NYSE: AMT), and the U.S. federal government.
However, there is no shortage of headwinds combating those tailwinds.
On Oct. 13, investment bank Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS to Neutral and reduced its price target by about 45%, citing lower confidence in the company’s launch schedule and potential limits on SpaceX launches.
In addition, satellite industry analyst Tim Farrar noted on social media platform X that, at its current pace, AST SpaceMobile may not reach a 60-satellite constellation until 2028.
Meanwhile, ongoing civil litigation that comes with legal fees and potential damages could hamper the company’s financial performance. A new class-action securities lawsuit against AST SpaceMobile alleges that the company misled investors about its capital needs and competitive position from March 2025 through July 2026.
The suit—which centers on three separate $1 billion convertible-note offerings that allegedly undercut prior assurances, drove concerns about shareholder dilution, and preceded sharp ASTS sell-offs—adds to existing concerns about AST SpaceMobile's volatility, cash burn, launch delays, and insider selling.
Analysts forecast a full-year cash burn rate in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion, driven primarily by R&D, AST SpaceMobile’s vertically integrated BlueBird satellite production, and costly rocket launch service fees, of which SpaceX charges around $55 million to $65 million per launch.
Meanwhile, a series of weak earnings continues to prove to be an obstacle. AST SpaceMobile missed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as spending rose sharply to support its satellite buildout, following a galactic Q1 miss. The company has now missed on earnings for six consecutive quarters.
Wall Street’s Outlook Sends Mixed Signals
While the stock remains highly volatile, with a current beta of 2.72 and short interest at 21.06% of the float, or $3.89 billion in ASTS shares, institutional ownership continues to rise.
Institutional ownership sits around 61%, with institutional inflows totaling more than $2.41 billion and outflows at just $407.05 million over the past 12 months. But over the trailing year, insiders have sold $451.61 million worth of shares against $806,470 worth of shares purchased.
The stock carries an analyst consensus Hold rating and an average price target that suggests more than 80% upside potential.
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