Chart of the Week: Real Estate Trouble Looming?

 
   
     
   
 
APR 5 2023
 
 
Chart of the Week: Real Estate Trouble

Looming? 
   
JEFFRY TURNMIRE’S CHART OF THE WEEK
Real Estate Trouble? 
 
 
 

In case you’ve been living under a rock, we have a bit of a banking problem going on with our smaller, regional banks. 

Those are the banks that own about 80% of the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans in the US. Much of that CRE is going to have to be refinanced this year, next year, and in years to follow. 

The current interest rate environment isn’t friendly for refinancing big chunks of money. You know as well as I, it’s going to be WAY more expensive, in a time when people want to work from home… leading to less demand. Higher prices and lower demand creates our perfect storm.

Now you could short all sorts of regional banks or go to an ETF like SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) and buy some puts, but I think a smarter play is to go after a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) that specializes in CRE. And why not go for one of the biggest out there…

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
 

As we can see on the chart, ARE is already in a significant downtrend and the opportunity may not be immediately obvious. So, let me add a few Fibonacci (Fib) lines to the chart…
 

With the addition of the Fib lines, we can see the potential setup for ARE to extend down to the target zone at $100… though it might take well into the summer months to get there.  

I have a put-based position using the December 2023 expiration – looking for ARE to drop to that $100 level or possibly lower. The entry is good below $128. 

If ARE breaks above $128, then price is telling us a move higher is more likely than dropping quickly to the target.

Hope you found that helpful, and if you want to learn a little more about using Fibonacci levels check out my class: http://jeffrytrader.com/fib 

Have a great rest of the week!

Jeffry
DON YOCHAM 
The League of Entropy
 

Yesterday I described 3 Pillars of Exorbitant Privilege that paid for the American lifestyle over the last several decades.

A cost that also required more and more centralization of power.

Political power, informational power, and economic power have all increased as you approach the centers of politics, finance, defense, energy, pharma, or big data.

And that costs money.

Consider the trillions spent ona 20-year war in Afghanistan, wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria – I’ve lost count – to maintain U.S. hegemony in the Middle East. Add to that Ukraine and the saber rattling between the U.S. and China over Taiwan.

Consider the multi-trillion-dollar price tags of bailing out the U.S. economy from the Great Financial Crisis through the COVID-19 pandemic and now the smoldering banking crisis.

And consider the impossible position global central banks around the world find themselves in as they must tighten money supply to fight inflation but also have to ease money supply to keep recession at bay and banks from failing.

But the exorbitant privilege that maintained order under the centralized status quo, like everything else in the universe, has succumbed to entropy.

Now, entropy is a term usually reserved for thermodynamics discussions or information theory. But as a general concept, entropy describes the amount of disorder in a system.

The more disorderly a system, the more entropy it demonstrates.
And when I look at society and the world around us, I see it demonstrating a great deal of entropy.

A unipolar U.S. centric political status quo giving way to multi-polar alignments centering around China, Russia, and India.

Populist pressure in Europe is threatening to break up the European Union, with the U.K. being the first.

A U.S. dollar undermined through various unilateral agreements to settle trade in competing currencies.

And Bitcoin.

All around the world people are affiliating with smaller and smaller groups of like-minded people.

Just as thermal entropy dissipates heat, “social” entropy dissipates political and economic power.

And the more the centralized status-quo resorts to debt, debasement, and force to hold on to power, the more disorder it creates.

Take What the Markets Give You.
JEFFRY TURNMIRE
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