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NVIDIA's Next Leg Higher May Have Started at CES
Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Published: 1/10/2026.
What You Need to Know
- NVIDIA's CES announcements position it to continue dominating the AI landscape in 2026.
- Analysts responded favorably to the news, affirming an outlook for a 40% to 90% upside this year.
- Institutions are accumulating this stock and have accelerated their activity in the first week of the year.
Highlights from the CES conference provide numerous reasons to believe NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock price will continue rising in 2026, supporting an outlook that the company could reach a $7 trillion valuation in the not-too-distant future. Sales in China, an accelerated product release schedule, and their market impact are the primary drivers.
The takeaway for investors: 2026 will be another pivotal year for the company, and the analysts' consensus — roughly 40% upside — is likely a conservative target that could be reached by year-end.
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Hurdles remain, but NVIDIA appears to be on track to resume sales in China. While China seeks to limit NVIDIA's dominance and bolster demand for local products, both countries are moving to allow access.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang estimated that business at about $50 billion annually — roughly a 25% increase relative to the 2026 revenue forecast. Even so, with growth expected to remain in the high double digits for the next five years and a mid-teens CAGR for the following five, this technology stock represents compelling long-term value.
Trading at about 40x the 2026 earnings estimate, its 2035 multiple would be less than 10x the 2035 estimate, suggesting a minimum of 100% upside is likely over the next few years. A 100% increase in NVIDIA's stock price by 2035 would align the company's price multiple with the S&P 500 average and does not include any premium. An advance aligned with historical trends for blue-chip tech leaders, which trade at a 30x to 35x multiple, would add another 10,000–15,000 basis points to the upside target. Assuming sales to China resume, the value is more profound.
Accelerating Release Schedule Adds Upside to the Outlook
Analysts entered 2026 with a robust outlook for sales, buoyed by news that the Vera Rubin line was already in full production. Expected to ship in the second half of 2026, the lineup includes six entirely new chips with improved performance and efficiency, designed to support AI inference.
Market chatter suggests the Vera Rubin family, which will compete with the Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) MI450 launch, will generate significant revenue and raise expectations for the year. Consensus forecasts assume roughly 65% revenue growth in 2026, followed by another ~50% increase in 2027.
Analysts also highlighted strategic moves such as the launch of Alpamayo, a family of open-source AI models for Level 4 autonomous vehicles that enable systems to reason through complex situations rather than merely react. Analysts view Alpamayo as a 2026 catalyst, aligning with NVIDIA's goal of integrating GPUs and AI into physical systems and applications.
Analysts Respond Bullishly to CES Event: Institutions Accumulate NVIDIA Stock
The analyst response to the CES announcements was broadly bullish, with numerous reaffirmed ratings and higher price targets. MarketBeat's data shows a high-conviction Buy: 51 of 54 analysts rate the stock a Buy — an approximately 95% Buy-side bias — with coverage swelling and target prices rising sharply. The consensus target was up about 60% year-over-year in early January 2026, implying roughly 40% upside; trends, however, point toward the higher end of targets — about a 90% upside if fully realized.
Institutions own 65% of NVIDIA stock, providing a strong support base and increasing their holdings in 2026. Data show institutional buyers were net purchasers across all four quarters of 2025, buying at roughly a $2-for-$1 pace versus sales, and accelerating to about $10 bought for each $1 sold in the first week of 2026. That activity not only supports the stock but creates a meaningful tailwind for price action. NVIDIA’s share price fell in late 2025, found a bottom near its 150-day EMA, and has since rebounded.
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