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Home Depot & Lowe's: Buying the Earnings Dip
Reported by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 3/1/2026.
Key Points
- Both Home Depot and Lowe's exceeded Wall Street's earnings expectations by leveraging a surge in demand from professional contractors and essential repair projects.
- Management at Home Depot and Lowe's demonstrated confidence in future cash flows by maintaining their long track records of paying dividends to shareholders.
- Strategic investments in complex trade distribution and digital platforms are positioning these companies to lead the market when housing turnover eventually normalizes.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a "wealthy man"
Wall Street has a famous habit of ignoring what just happened in favor of panicking about what might happen.
On Feb. 25, 2026, the market offered a textbook example of this dynamic with retail giants The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW).
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Get the 4 steps to Fed-proof your savings nowDespite both companies reporting fourth-quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations, their stock prices slipped into the red shortly afterward.
In the final trading days of February, Home Depot shares fell about 2.3%, while Lowe's slid nearly 5%. The issue isn't current performance—both companies are executing well—but future caution.
Management teams at both retailers cited a frozen housing market as the primary reason for conservative guidance for fiscal year 2026.
The economic reality is simple but harsh: high mortgage rates have created a lock-in effect. Homeowners with low interest rates are refusing to move, pushing existing home sales to multi-decade lows.
With fewer people moving, big-ticket discretionary renovation projects—like new kitchens and bathrooms—are being deferred.
However, for long-term investors the disconnect between strong operational execution and temporary macroeconomic fear represents a valuation reset. These companies are generating substantial revenue and profit even in a weak housing environment.
When the market inevitably thaws, they should be well positioned for significant growth.
Beating The Street in a Frozen Market
Look strictly at the financial scorecard for the fourth quarter of 2025, and it's hard to find the disaster implied by the stock price reaction. Both retailers cleared the hurdles set by Wall Street analysts, proving they can navigate a difficult environment.
Home Depot Performance:
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): Reported $2.72, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of $2.52.
- Revenue: Came in at $38.2 billion, topping forecasts despite a 3.8% year-over-year decline.
- Comparable Sales: Perhaps the most critical metric, sales at stores open for at least a year remained positive at +0.4%.
Lowe's Companies Performance:
- Adjusted EPS: Reported $1.98, edging out the consensus of $1.94.
- Revenue: Surged 10.9% year-over-year to $20.58 billion, beating estimates by nearly $250 million.
- Comparable Sales: Rose 1.3%, significantly outpacing the flat-to-negative expectations of many analysts.
One specific catalyst behind these numbers was weather—winter storms, specifically Fern and Gianna, drove emergency spending on items such as generators and cleanup supplies. For Lowe's, that activity provided an estimated 50 basis-point lift to comparable sales. While some may call this a temporary boost, others see it as proof that these retailers are essential businesses consumers rely on during crises.
The Secret Weapon: Why Pros Are Saving the Day
A clear trend emerged in the latest reports: the Pro customer is keeping the business afloat. While the average homeowner is pulling back on discretionary DIY spending due to inflation and job concerns, professional contractors are still buying. Both companies are aggressively shifting their models to capture this more stable revenue stream.
Home Depot’s Pro Ecosystem
Home Depot reported that Pro sales outpaced DIY sales in the fourth quarter. The company is integrating SRS Distribution, a major acquisition designed to expand its reach into complex trade projects like roofing and landscaping. That creates a sticky ecosystem in which contractors rely on Home Depot not only for materials but also for job-site delivery, trade credit, and project management tools.
Lowe’s Aggressive Expansion
Lowe's is pursuing a similar strategy with sizable investments. The retailer reported double-digit growth in pro-heavy categories, such as paint and primers. To cement that growth, Lowe's recently acquired Foundation Building Materials (FBM) and Artisan Design Group (ADG).
These acquisitions help explain why Lowe's stock has fallen more than Home Depot's. While they add billions in sales, they also introduce short-term costs. Lowe's guidance assumes roughly 30 basis points of margin dilution in 2026 as it integrates these businesses.
Investors often dislike margin compression, but this appears to be a deliberate trade-off. Lowe's is accepting near-term profitability pressure to acquire higher, more recurring revenue streams from professional customers. Securing the Pro business now helps insulate it from the volatility of the DIY market.
Leaner and Meaner: Cutting Costs to Protect Profits
Revenue growth is only half the equation; the other half is efficiency. Facing a stagnant housing market, Lowe's is taking decisive action to protect its bottom line. The company announced plans to cut approximately 600 corporate and support roles.
Layoffs are difficult, but from an investment perspective this demonstrates financial discipline. By streamlining the organization, Lowe's aims to remain agile. Management isn't simply waiting for the Fed to cut rates; it's proactively adjusting its cost structure to match the current sales environment.
Meanwhile, Home Depot maintained a solid gross margin of roughly 33.1%. That suggests the company still has pricing power despite lower transaction volumes and isn't being forced to slash prices to move inventory—preserving long-term brand value and profitability.
Cash Is King: Getting Paid to Wait
During periods of stock volatility, dividends act as a stabilizer for portfolios. Both Home Depot and Lowe's have used strong cash flows to reward shareholders, giving investors another reason to hold through the current downturn.
Home Depot’s Raise
Home Depot’s Board recently approved a 1.3% increase in its quarterly dividend to $2.33 per share. That brings the annualized payout to $9.32 and a yield of about 2.45%. Increasing the dividend in a frozen housing market signals management's confidence in future free cash flow.
Lowe’s Track Record
Lowe's has an even longer history of reliability. As a Dividend Aristocrat, Lowe's has raised its dividend for 53 consecutive years. With a current annual payout of $4.80 and a yield near 1.81%, the dividend appears secure with room to grow.
For investors, these payouts provide a floor under the stock price. You're essentially getting paid to wait for the macroeconomic backdrop to improve.
The Thaw Is Coming: Why Patience Will Pay Off
The sell-off after these earnings reports looks like a classic overreaction to cautious guidance. The headwinds—high mortgage rates and low housing turnover—are cyclical, not structural.
The lock-in effect is temporary. Homes in the U.S. continue to age—the median age now exceeds 40 years. Roofs need replacing, water heaters fail, and appliances break. These are inevitable purchases, not optional ones.
Home Depot and Lowe's have used this downcycle to become more efficient, streamline operations, and deepen relationships with professional contractors. By absorbing short-term margin pain to secure Pro customers, they are effectively coiling a spring for future growth.
For the patient investor, the recent price drop offers an attractive entry point into two high-quality companies. While the housing market may be frozen today, the foundation for the next boom is being laid. Watch the 10-year Treasury yield—when rates stabilize, these stocks are well positioned to lead the recovery.
This Forgotten EV Stock Just Reported Strong Earnings
Reported by Jordan Chussler. Publication Date: 3/11/2026.
Key Points
- NIO achieved a historic financial milestone by reporting its first-ever quarterly net profit in Q4 2025.
- The company reported record-breaking delivery momentum with 72% year-over-year growth in Q4 alongside guidance for Q1 2026 that forecasts delivery growth of up to 97%.
- To capture more of the massive Chinese EV market, NIO is set to launch its flagship ES9 executive SUV in Q2 2026.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a "wealthy man"
While BYD (OTCMKTS: BYDDF) and the Magnificent Seven EV maker Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) battle for global electric vehicle (EV) dominance, an often-overlooked company in the space reported earnings on March 10, setting the stage for a potential comeback.
NIO (NYSE: NIO), a pioneer in the premium EV market, designs, develops, and manufactures smart, high-performance electric vehicles. Founded in November 2014 and headquartered in Shanghai, the company integrates advanced electric propulsion, connectivity, and autonomous driving technologies into its platforms.
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Get the 4 steps to Fed-proof your savings nowNIO's struggles have been well-documented. The stock is down more than 92% from its January 2021 all-time high, and those headwinds continued this year, with shares losing nearly 11% in the run-up to the company's earnings call.
But the stock rose nearly 10% on Tuesday after NIO reported its first-ever quarterly net profit. Here's what current shareholders and prospective investors can expect moving forward.
After Years of Waiting, NIO Finally Achieves Profitability
When NIO reported full-year and Q4 earnings on March 10, it beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.04 exceeded analyst expectations for a $0.07 loss, and quarterly revenue of $4.95 billion topped forecasts of $4.77 billion. The EPS beat was only the second in the past 10 quarters.
The Chinese EV maker's earnings are forecast to grow by nearly 28% next year. In his earnings call comments, founder and CEO William Li said that during Q4 2025 NIO's vehicle margin exceeded 18%, which he attributed to ongoing improvements and vehicle cost optimization.
Li added that "the margin of other sales reached 11.9%, supported by the expanding scale and improving profitability…as our user base continues to grow." Both of those margin figures exceed the industry average for mainstream automakers, which typically operate between 7% and 10%.
NIO reported strong volume momentum, with Q4 deliveries hitting 124,807 vehicles — a year-over-year (YOY) increase of nearly 72%. Full-year deliveries totaled 326,028 vehicles, up nearly 47% YOY. Guidance for Q1 deliveries is in the range of 80,000 to 83,000 vehicles, which would imply 90% to 97% YOY growth.
Management flagged emerging cost pressures related to memory chips and lithium carbonate that could strain margins heading into Q2, but said those effects should be short-lived.
A more important takeaway from NIO's earnings report is that the company has now posted positive cash flow for two consecutive quarters — a critical indicator of financial health. At year-end, NIO's cash and equivalents were valued at $6.67 billion.
NIO Aims for a Bigger Slice of the Chinese EV Market's Pie
While EV adoption in the United States has been slower to take hold, China remains the world's largest EV market by a wide margin. The country accounts for roughly 60% of global EV sales, and with more than 11 million EVs on its roads, China's EV market is larger than the rest of the world combined.
Industry analysis firm Grand View Research estimates that China's EV market — valued at more than $576 billion in 2024 — could grow to more than $2.45 trillion by 2030, implying a compound annual growth rate of 27.3% between 2025 and 2030.
As of early 2026, NIO holds roughly 4.5% of China's EV market. That share reflects the company's strong growth in late 2025, which helped make it one of the top 10 EV manufacturers in the country.
Later this year, the launch of NIO's flagship ES9 executive SUV — slated for Q2 at the company's April 9 tech event — is expected to bolster 2026 deliveries and contribute to NIO's expanding market share. The company also plans to debut three other new models this year to strengthen its position in the premium large-vehicle segment.
On the Q4 call, management noted that long-term investments in core technologies are beginning to pay off: "key technologies such as the world's first automotive-grade 5-nanometer chip with smart driving, the full-domain vehicle operating system, and the SkyRide intelligent chassis have all achieved mass production."
What Wall Street Thinks About NIO
Based on the 11 analysts currently covering NIO, the stock has a consensus Hold rating, despite an average one-year price target of $6.83, which suggests roughly 26% potential upside.
Current short interest of 7.13% — more than 147 million shares of the roughly 2.29 billion shares outstanding — is notable but has fallen from prior levels. The shorted shares are valued at about $728 million, a decline of more than 44% from the $1.31 billion worth of shares that were shorted in September 2025 when short interest peaked for the year. Institutional ownership remains below average at nearly 49%, but institutional buying has produced roughly $965 million in inflows versus about $530 million in outflows over the past 12 months.
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