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Crypto 101
Dollar General Holds Its Ground at Critical Level, Signals Buy
Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Posted: 3/13/2026.
Key Points
- Dollar General is well-positioned to execute its Back-to-Basics strategy, sustain growth and cash flow.
- Analysts and institutions support the stock, indicating a value, but upside may be limited until later in the year.
- Cautious guidance sent shares plunging, setting the stage for future outperformance and a potential price recovery.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Dollar General (NYSE: DG) issued a weak 2026 forecast on March 12, sending its shares down about 10% in the next session. A 10% decline is significant and raised the risk of further downside, but what happened next mattered most. The pullback brought DG into a significant support zone that aligned with a prior breakout-and-reversal pattern, and buyers stepped in.
The stock quickly recovered roughly half its losses, confirming support at this level and at two long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs), which strengthened the signal. The EMA confirmation, together with a Golden Crossover, suggested a longer-term bullish shift and prompted a move into accumulation. If the market follows through on this signal, any dip below $128 is unlikely to persist.
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Institutions Buy Dollar General Aggressively in 2026
The institutional data reported by MarketBeat indicate institutions are buying the dip in Dollar General shares. On a trailing-12-month basis, institutions showed bullish behavior for four consecutive quarters (including the first two months of Q1 2026), with net buying accelerating sequentially and a multiyear high reached in early Q1.
Given institutions own nearly 92% of the stock, that concentration suggests the market is well supported and has a tailwind to aid any rebound.
Analysts also lend some support, though upside may be limited until later in the year. Post-release updates included cautionary notes about slowing comparable-store sales and conservative guidance, but most ratings and price targets were left unchanged, keeping the existing trend intact.
Based on 30 analysts, the consensus rating is Hold with a 46% buy-side bias. Neither the bias nor the price target is strongly bullish, implying the stock looked fairly valued as of the close before the earnings report.
One potential trigger for a rebound is upgrades to analyst forecasts, which could be driven by the next earnings release.
Dollar General Falls After Strong Report; Guides for Growth
Dollar General reported a solid quarter: revenue rose 5.9% year-over-year to nearly $11 billion, driven by new store openings and positive comps. Same-store sales increased 4.3%, reflecting a 2.6% rise in traffic and a 1.7% increase in transactions. Revenue and earnings beat MarketBeat's consensus—revenue by roughly 75 basis points. The company's rationalization efforts, store improvements, and cost controls are paying off, widening margins. GAAP earnings were $1.93, nearly a 15% increase from last year, and margins are expected to remain healthy.
Guidance was the main concern: management forecast revenue growth slowing to about 3.95%, below the 4.25% consensus, which likely prompted the cautious outlook. That said, Dollar General's results reflect momentum going into the year, and there is potential for consumer tailwinds in 2026. Tax refund season may boost spending, as larger-than-usual refunds could inject cash across Dollar General's customer base.
Balance sheet highlights add another reason to consider ownership. Total assets fell slightly on a full-year basis, but liabilities declined more, producing about a 15% increase in shareholder equity and preserving the company's ability to return capital. Dollar General paused buybacks to preserve cash while rationalizing inventory and investing in remodels, but it continues to pay a dividend. The distribution was about 1.7% as of March 2026, and investors may see annual increases with buybacks potentially resuming by the fiscal year's end.
Dollar General Catalysts in 2026: Better Stores
A key catalyst this year is Dollar General's Back to Basics strategy. The company is remodeling stores, updating assortments, reducing excess inventory, and fixing supply-chain issues. Those efforts set the stage for stronger comps and margin improvement, while concepts like DG Wellness and pOpshelf help attract and retain new customers.
Market Crash Warning? Wall Street Veteran Says Mid-March Could Mark a Turning Point
Submitted by Bridget Bennett. Posted: 3/11/2026.
Key Points
- Marc Chaikin, founder and CEO of Chaikin Analytics, says the midterm year has historically been the weakest phase of the presidential cycle, with peaks often forming in mid-March to early April.
- Even if indexes are near highs, internal weakness in speculative and large-cap tech can show up first and foreshadow broader downside.
- Preparation matters: build cash, trim weak holdings, and watch key technical levels to stay flexible if volatility rises.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Heading into mid‑March, Wall Street veteran Marc Chaikin said current market conditions are unfolding much as he predicted a year ago.
Chaikin, founder and CEO of Chaikin Analytics, has more than 50 years of experience in the stock market and is known for blending fundamental and technical analysis. His warning is rooted in the presidential election cycle, one of the market's longest‑tracked seasonal patterns. Historically, he noted, the second year of a presidential term—often called the midterm year—has been the weakest stretch for equities.
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See the 4 steps to Fed-proof your savings nowLooking at the last 17 presidential cycles dating back to the 1950s:
- The second year of the cycle averaged just a 1% gain in the S&P 500.
- The other three years averaged double‑digit returns.
- Market peaks during midterm years often occur between mid‑March and early April.
This timing window is where the market sits now.
Historical patterns don't guarantee future outcomes, but Chaikin says they provide a useful framework for assessing probabilities—especially when other warning signs are present.
Markets Trading on Expectations, Not Fundamentals
Recent volatility underscores how sensitive markets have become to headlines and geopolitical developments.
Oil pushing above $100 per barrel has raised fears that inflation could accelerate again. At the same time, weak employment data suggest the economy may need lower interest rates.
That combination creates a difficult situation for the Federal Reserve. Normally, rising inflation would prompt the Fed to raise rates, while weak employment would push it toward cuts. With both pressures occurring simultaneously, the central bank may have limited flexibility.
Geopolitical tensions and rapidly shifting headlines add to the uncertainty. Real‑time information—often amplified through social media and political messaging—can cause algorithmic trading systems to react instantly, accelerating short‑term swings.
The result is a market environment driven more by short‑term reactions and uncertainty than by underlying fundamentals.
Weakness Already Appearing Beneath the Surface
Despite recent volatility, the broader market remains relatively close to its highs. The S&P 500 is only about 2% below its peak. For context, a correction is typically defined as a 10%–20% decline, while a bear market generally requires a 20% drop.
However, Chaikin says many popular stocks are already struggling.
Several of the so‑called Magnificent Seven—a handful of mega‑cap tech leaders—make up roughly one‑third of the S&P 500's market value, and several are already in steep downtrends. Investors heavily exposed to tech through exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) or individual holdings like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) may be experiencing losses far larger than the overall index suggests.
Another warning comes from the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKK), often seen as a proxy for speculative technology stocks. That fund has already fallen roughly 28% from its October highs, suggesting risk appetite may be fading.
These internal cracks often appear before the broader market begins to decline.
3 Ways Investors Can Protect Their Portfolios
Rather than trying to predict exactly what will happen next, Chaikin emphasizes preparation. If markets move into a correction or bear phase, investors who plan ahead will be better positioned.
1. Raise Cash to a "Sleeping Level"
The first step is simple: raise cash.
Chaikin suggests holding enough cash to remain calm if markets decline sharply. For many portfolios, that means roughly 15% to 25% in cash.
The goal isn't to exit the market completely but to create a cushion.
Cash serves two important purposes:
- It reduces emotional pressure during declines.
- It provides dry powder to take advantage of opportunities later.
Investors who stay fully invested during downturns often feel forced to sell at the worst possible moment.
2. Sell Weak Stocks First
If you need cash, a logical place to start is by trimming your weakest holdings.
Chaikin recommends selling stocks that exhibit bearish characteristics in quantitative models such as the Chaikin Power Gauge, which evaluates companies on 20 fundamental and technical factors.
Stocks showing bearish signals near market highs tend to be the most vulnerable during corrections, while stronger areas may remain resilient. Chaikin pointed to several sectors demonstrating relative strength, including healthcare, aerospace and defense, energy, and infrastructure tied to data center expansion.
Rather than automatically buying the dip, investors may benefit from focusing on industry groups with strong momentum and fundamentals.
3. Watch Key Technical Levels
Technical indicators can provide early clues about market direction.
One widely watched signal is the 200‑day moving average of the S&P 500. Many traders view it as a dividing line between longer‑term uptrends and downtrends. If the index holds above the 200‑day, pullbacks often stay contained. A decisive break below it can signal that selling pressure is widening—and that a routine dip may be turning into something more serious.
Other indicators, such as the VIX volatility index, have already spiked in recent sessions. While volatility can create short‑term buying opportunities, sustained spikes often accompany periods of market stress.
Why the Best Opportunity May Come Later
Despite the cautious outlook, Chaikin remains optimistic.
Midterm election years have often produced the best buying opportunities of the presidential cycle. Markets frequently bottom in late September or early October after months of volatility, then launch into powerful rallies. In some cases, gains following those lows have averaged more than 40% over the next 15 months.
That's why preparation now can matter more than prediction.
Investors holding cash during volatile periods have the flexibility to act when prices reset. Those who stay fully invested through a sharp downturn may be forced to react at exactly the wrong moment.
For now, the market hasn't entered bear territory—but several warning signs are emerging beneath the surface.
With historical patterns pointing to a weaker midterm year and geopolitical uncertainty adding to volatility, this may be a time for investors to strengthen their portfolios rather than chase short‑term moves.
If history repeats itself, the turbulence of 2026 may not just test investors' patience—it could ultimately create one of the most attractive buying opportunities of the market cycle.
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