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This Week's Bonus Content
It's Time to Take Profits on These 2 Overbought Energy StocksSubmitted by Dan Schmidt. Article Published: 4/11/2026. 
Key Points
- Energy has been the top-performing sector so far in 2026, riding the oil price spike to a massive gain of over 25% after years of underperformance.
- But now that a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been reached, the upside in energy stocks appears to be fully priced in.
- Broadly, energy investments are starting to get overbought, and for the following two stocks, it might be time to take profits.
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A fragile ceasefire appears to have been reached between the U.S. and Iran, which pushed down oil prices and helped stocks gain more than 2% following the announcement. That trend has persisted, with the S&P 500 up by more than 3% since the ceasefire news broke on Tuesday, April 7. The development highlights the ever-changing nature of geopolitical conflicts, but it also underscores the importance of taking profits on unexpected gains. Now that the energy sector looks overbought, investors may want to consider trimming some of 2026’s early winners. Geopolitical and Technical Signals Indicate a Break in Energy's RallyEnergy has by far been the best-performing sector in 2026. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE) is up nearly 30% year-to-date (YTD), a performance that would have had a much larger impact on the S&P 500 in past decades. With the explosive growth of the Magnificent Seven and other mega-cap companies, energy now accounts for less than 5% of the cap-weighted index, so this year's energy gains haven’t been enough to move the broader benchmark dramatically higher.
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Now that a tenuous ceasefire has been reached, the energy sector risks losing some of the catalysts that powered its run earlier in 2026. There are several reasons investors might consider reducing exposure. The first challenge is a fading geopolitical risk premium. Even before the ceasefire, the energy rally had been running hard. Futures markets imply oil will trade above $90 per barrel through December, reflecting structurally higher fuel and petroleum prices. Much of the extra profit that flowed to oil and gas has been priced in, and de‑escalation — along with evolving developments in the Strait of Hormuz — removes a meaningful tailwind. Another headwind is potential demand destruction. West Texas Intermediate futures briefly reached $115 before settling around $95 after the ceasefire announcement. While consumers obviously prefer $95 oil to $115 oil, $95 is still a major increase from the sub-$60 prices at the start of the year. Sustained prices near $100 will compress margins for airlines and other transportation companies, and price spikes typically take months to ripple through the broader economy. High prices won’t help energy stocks if consumption slows. Finally, technical indicators point to waning momentum. After the XLE reached an RSI of 80, it plunged below 50 in less than two weeks, signaling a sharp drop in bullish momentum. Some large-cap energy names remain above the 70 overbought threshold, which may warrant profit-taking for certain investors. If the price-shock component of this oil episode is ending, it could trigger a pullback in some overbought energy-related stocks. The two companies below have surged to new highs, but with the geopolitical tailwind fading, both fundamental and technical concerns are coming into view. Suncor Energy: Share Buybacks Mask Declining RevenueSuncor Energy (NYSE: SU), Canada’s largest integrated oil and gas company, has benefited from higher crude prices, but underlying issues have been obscured. Suncor missed revenue expectations in its Q4 2025 earnings report, with revenue falling 3% year over year to $8.77 billion. The company has repurchased more than 12% of its float under its current buyback program, which may have supported the share price ahead of the recent price shock. The next earnings report is scheduled for May 5.  Technical headwinds appear on the daily chart, including a double-top pattern that often precedes a pullback. The RSI had been in overbought territory since the second week of March but has since retreated to its lowest level in months. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also appears to confirm a momentum shift with a bearish crossover. Entergy: Bullish Catalysts Appear Fully Baked InEntergy (NYSE: ETR) has ridden the energy surge despite being a utility. But after roughly a 25% YTD gain, many of Entergy’s catalysts are either not yet generating material revenue or are already priced into the stock. Entergy has an agreement with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) to supply power and infrastructure to a large Louisiana data center, but that deal has not yet meaningfully boosted earnings. In its Q4 2025 report, Entergy slightly missed on both EPS and revenue while reaffirming an expected 8% annual growth rate through 2029. An 8% compound annual growth rate is attractive for a utility, but ETR trades more like a growth stock, with a price-to-earnings ratio near 29 and a price-to-sales ratio above 4.  The technical picture also shows buying pressure easing after a massive late-March surge, which could signal profit-taking. The RSI remains in overbought territory, and the MACD suggests rising volatility as the MACD and signal lines diverge. If bullish momentum fades, investors may question why they own a utility trading at roughly 29 times forward earnings. |
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