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The War Won't Last Forever: 3 Stocks That Could Lead the RecoverySubmitted by Bridget Bennett. Originally Published: 4/8/2026. 
Key Points
- Citigroup's global treasury services business spans over 160 countries, making it uniquely positioned to benefit from a rebound in cross-border economic activity once the conflict ends.
- Verizon's 5.7% dividend yield and 22 consecutive years of dividend growth give investors a defensive anchor while they wait for the communications sector to recover.
- Delta Air Lines owns the only airline-operated oil refinery in the United States, a competitive edge that has kept its stock resilient while rival carriers suffered double-digit declines.
- Special Report: Elon Musk’s $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
The Dow is in correction territory. Oil has surged past $110 a barrel. Financials, communications, and airlines are among the worst-performing sectors since the Iran conflict began in late February. For most investors, the instinct is to look away. But Oxford Club Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld is looking closer — specifically at stocks in those beaten-down sectors that haven't fallen as far as the rest. Relative strength during a selloff isn't random. When the cycle turns, the names that held up tend to be the first to attract institutional money. Lichtenfeld sees that setup forming right now across three familiar names. Citigroup: Global Reach Is Its MoatThe financial sector has taken a beating since the Iran conflict began. Rising oil prices threaten to slow the economy, which means less borrowing, fewer IPOs and weaker investment-banking revenue across the board.
But Citigroup (NYSE: C) has held up better than most of its mega-bank peers, and Lichtenfeld points to its treasury and trade solutions (TTS) business as the reason. While JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) dominate domestic headlines, Citigroup operates in more than 160 countries and processes roughly $3 trillion in daily transactions through its cash-management platform. That global footprint matters. Companies in places such as Mongolia or Saudi Arabia are far more likely to turn to Citi than to any other Wall Street bank for cash management. Once that relationship exists, it tends to be sticky—switching providers is operationally complex, giving Citigroup a durable revenue stream competitors can't easily replicate. Lichtenfeld expects improving margins in Citigroup's next earnings report, scheduled for April 14. The stock trades at roughly 11 times forward earnings, well below its five-year average. Citigroup's strategic repositioning—spinning off its Mexico consumer business and reinvesting in commercial banking and wealth—could give the valuation room to expand once macro pressure lifts. If financial stocks rebound quickly when the conflict ends, Lichtenfeld sees that as a sign the global economy is healing. If they don't, it may be a warning worth watching. Verizon: A 5.9% Yield With a Defensive EdgeConsumer uncertainty tends to push people toward cheaper alternatives, and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) sits at the premium end of the wireless market. That positioning is a headwind in the short term but a tailwind when sentiment improves. People generally don't downgrade from Verizon because they dislike the service—they do it because budgets get tight. When confidence returns, so does the willingness to pay for premium service. In the meantime, Verizon's dividend does much of the heavy lifting. The company has raised its payout for 22 consecutive years. In January it declared a quarterly dividend of about 71 cents per share, which puts the forward yield at roughly 5.9%. Free cash flow more than covers the dividend, with guidance calling for at least $21.5 billion in 2026—a year-over-year increase of more than 7%. New CEO Dan Schulman has moved aggressively since taking over in October 2025, cutting $9 billion in combined operating and capital expenses and authorizing a $25 billion share-buyback program over the next three years. Verizon also completed its acquisition of Frontier Communications, expanding its fiber access to more than 30 million homes and businesses. Lichtenfeld notes that if post-conflict government spending shifts back toward infrastructure, Frontier's rural broadband footprint could become a meaningful growth driver. Delta: Refinery Changes the Math on AirlinesAirlines are the most obvious casualty of any conflict that sends oil prices surging. But Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) has a structural advantage no other U.S. carrier can match: it owns the Trainer refinery in Pennsylvania through its subsidiary Monroe Energy. The 185,000-barrel-per-day facility produces roughly 52,000 barrels of jet fuel daily, offsetting 40% to 50% of Delta's domestic fuel costs. When crude spiked after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the refinery saved Delta about $800 million. With Brent crude now above $110 a barrel amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, the refinery is proving its worth again. While competitors have posted double-digit declines, Delta's stock has remained essentially flat since February. There’s an added benefit: the refinery also produces diesel, which Delta can trade for jet fuel. With diesel prices elevated, that swap is generating meaningful value on its own. Delta has maintained its full-year 2026 guidance of $6.50 to $7.50 per share, while many peers have pulled or widened their outlooks. The stock trades at roughly nine times trailing earnings, with a forward P/E near 9.3—making it one of the cheaper names in the S&P 500 relative to its earnings-growth trajectory. Relative Strength Now, Potential Outperformance LaterThe common thread across these three names is relative strength amid sector weakness. That pattern tends to matter when cycles turn. If the Iran conflict ends and oil normalizes, the sectors being punished most—financials, communications and airlines—could see sharp snapbacks. Within those groups, the stocks that held up best during the downturn have historically led the recovery. None of this requires predicting when the war will end. It requires watching which names the market is quietly signaling it trusts most. |
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