Welcome to Insider Trades Daily, glad you're here! Every day, more than 500,000 investors use this newsletter to track insider buying and selling across major public companies. It’s a simple way to see what the people closest to the business are doing with their own money. Before we start sending your daily updates, there’s just one quick thing left to do. Please confirm your subscription using the link below. Click Here to Confirm Your Subscription to Insider Trades Daily It takes a few seconds and helps make sure your newsletter shows up where it belongs, your inbox, not a spam folder. Once you’re confirmed, we’ll take it from there and deliver clear, no-nonsense insider trading insights straight to you. Start Receiving Insider Information The InsiderTrades.com Team P.S. If there's anything we can do to improve your experience, please let us know by replying to this email.
Additional Reading from MarketBeat.com
Mondelez Rips Higher on a Q1 Beat as Cocoa Pressure Finally Starts to CrackBy Chris Markoch. Date Posted: 4/30/2026. 
Key Points
- Mondelez stock surged after a Q1 earnings beat, with revenue and EPS topping estimates despite year-over-year margin pressure from higher cocoa costs.
- Falling cocoa prices and strong volume-driven growth in emerging markets could support upside to current earnings forecasts.
- Technical signals and weak developed-market consumer trends suggest investors should watch for a potential pullback despite improving fundamentals.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Mondelez International (NASDAQ: MDLZ) is up more than 5% after the company delivered strong first-quarter earnings. The report arrived on a day when rising oil prices were pushing investors toward perceived value stocks. At 32x trailing earnings, some investors may resist labeling MDLZ a value stock. But forward earnings of roughly 20x suggest it could be closer to a value play than the trailing multiple implies.
When the SpaceX IPO launches, most retail investors will be locked out. The banks, funds, and insiders get in early - while everyone else waits on the sidelines.
But one small infrastructure supplier - a critical piece Musk can't scale the Colossus network without - is still trading well under institutional radar. A new briefing reveals the name and ticker at no cost. Get the SpaceX infrastructure stock name and ticker here
The results point to resilient consumer demand, and one of the biggest headwinds to earnings appears to be easing. That raises the possibility that current estimates for earnings growth—around 11.8%—could be too conservative. Strong Earnings Beat Highlights Margin Pressure and Growth CatalystsMondelez reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.67, beating estimates of $0.61. Revenue of $10.08 billion topped expectations of $9.76 billion. On a year-over-year basis the picture was mixed: revenue rose about 8% from $9.31 billion in Q1 2025, while adjusted EPS declined 9.4% from $0.74 a year earlier. That might suggest Mondelez is facing the same price/volume puzzle confronting many consumer-facing companies. But two important distinctions—commodity costs and emerging-market volumes—point to potential upside. Cocoa Prices Are Coming DownUnlike some excuses that don’t pass the smell test, Mondelez’s explanation for the EPS hit is straightforward: higher cocoa prices were the single largest factor depressing adjusted EPS. Cocoa spiked sharply in early 2025 but has trended lower over the past year, and management expects that decline to continue through 2026. Lower cocoa costs would create room for earnings to recover even if consumer spending remains uneven. Mondelez reiterated its 2026 guidance: organic revenue growth of flat to +2%, adjusted EPS growth of flat to +5% at constant currency, and roughly $3 billion of free cash flow (FCF). That guidance could prove conservative if consumer demand in the U.S. and China catches up with the stronger trends seen in emerging markets. Emerging Markets Have a Sweet ToothOne of the highlights of the quarter was broad-based strength in emerging markets. The Asia, Middle East and Africa (AMEA) region delivered 11.3% organic growth. More importantly, that growth was driven by volume — consumers are buying more, not just paying higher prices. Many consumer-staples companies have relied on price increases; Mondelez's ability to drive volume growth is notable. Emerging markets account for about 40% of Mondelez’s revenue, while developed markets remain the majority and are showing signs of improvement. The company said it is nearly finished negotiating with European retailers and expects prices to be in line with expectations. Mondelez also reported stabilization in its chocolate businesses in Europe and in North America. Why Investors May Want to Be CarefulEven after the post-earnings pop, MDLZ is trading in the middle of its 52-week range. The consensus price target of $67 still implies only modest upside relative to the stock's recent high. Technically, MDLZ has moved above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) but is approaching overbought levels on the relative strength index (RSI), suggesting momentum could favor a near-term pullback. 
Beyond technicals, management flagged some demand risks. CEO Dirk Van de Put noted on the earnings call that U.S. consumer confidence has been shaken by the Iran war, and lower-income consumers are gravitating toward cheaper items and being selective about purchases. That observation isn't new and sentiment can shift quickly, and investors currently seem to view the comment as backward-looking rather than a material hit to company-wide performance. A potentially larger concern is Mondelez’s cash flow. FCF fell sharply year over year, from $815 million to $155 million in the quarter, while the company paid about $600 million in dividends. Even if FCF improves as earnings recover, the dividend payout ratio—roughly 106% of trailing 12-month earnings—makes cash generation and dividend sustainability items to monitor in coming quarters. |
0 Response to "Follow the money"
Post a Comment