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Flutter Sees Post-Earnings Boost as FanDuel Shows Signs of RecoveryBy Leo Miller. Article Posted: 5/10/2026. 
Key Points
- Flutter Entertainment shares have fallen more than 60% from their August 2025 all-time high, now trading near $100 per share.
- Flutter's Q1 2026 revenue rose 17% year over year to $4.3 billion, though the company trimmed its full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance.
- FanDuel's average monthly players dropped 6% year over year, which Flutter attributes primarily to unfavorable bettor outcomes in Q4 2025 rather than prediction market competition.
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Online betting giant Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) has been one of the market’s biggest losers for much of the past year. The stock topped $300 per share in July 2025, reached an all-time high in August, and has since fallen sharply. Overall, shares have dropped more than 60% from that August peak and are now trading near $100 per share. One of the biggest drags on the stock’s performance is the rising popularity of prediction markets, which offer an alternative to traditional forms of gambling. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD), which partners with Kalshi, said Q1 2026 was a record quarter for prediction market volume. It also noted that volume in April was on pace to reach roughly $3 billion, or its second-highest month ever. Flutter shares fell about 1.4% the day after Robinhood’s report.
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Flutter posted somewhat mixed results in its Q1 2026 earnings report, but investors still viewed them favorably, sending the stock up 2% afterward. Looking ahead, there is reason to believe Flutter represents a compelling opportunity, given how sharply its shares have declined. Flutter Beats on Revenue, Then Trims 2026 OutlookIn Q1 2026, Flutter’s revenue rose 17% year over year (YOY) to $4.3 billion, slightly ahead of estimates of $4.24 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell 22% YOY to $1.22, but still moderately beat estimates of $1.09. Revenue in the United States increased 6% YOY, with Flutter’s iGaming business standing out as particularly strong. Revenue there rose 19% YOY, while its sports betting platform, FanDuel, grew just 1% YOY. Its international business posted revenue growth of 18% YOY in constant currency. However, this was largely due to acquisitions, with the company noting that organic revenue was "in line" with the prior year. Notably, Flutter lowered its full-year guidance to account for several factors. Overall, the company’s revenue outlook declined to $18.3 billion from $18.4 billion previously. That included $95 million worth of unfavorable sports betting outcomes. While not ideal, this reflects the risk of operating a sportsbook and is not especially concerning. Flutter also lowered expectations for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to about $2.87 billion, from $2.97 billion. The decline reflects revenue impacts and $35 million of added costs tied to its launch of FanDuel in Arkansas. Although that creates a near-term drag, opening FanDuel in a new state is a long-term positive that expands its market. FanDuel Engagement Dipped, and Management Offered a Churn ExplanationFears surrounding Flutter in the prediction market space haven’t come without evidence. For FanDuel, average monthly players (AMPs) fell 6% YOY, suggesting that many bettors left the platform. That adds weight to the idea that users are defecting to prediction markets. Flutter argues that this has not been the primary reason for declining users. Still, the company estimates that prediction markets will have a “low single-digit” impact on future handle growth, with handle representing the total value of bets placed. Instead, Flutter says unusually favorable NFL outcomes for the company in Q4 2025 discouraged bettors. In other words, bettors won less often than usual, which caused them to step back from betting in the following months, including the first quarter. This is especially relevant because FanDuel’s users tend to skew more heavily toward high-risk parlay bets than users on other platforms. Flutter offered evidence to support this view, saying that NFL gross revenue margins during Q4 were above average in 10 out of 11 weeks. That is usually good for FanDuel, since it means the company keeps more of bettors' money, even if it can weigh on engagement afterward. Still, FanDuel noted that trends are improving. For example, AMPs were down 5% YOY in January, but grew 1% YOY in March. Additionally, handle fell 10% YOY in January, but only 4% YOY in March. This suggests bettors are gradually returning after licking their wounds. Overall, management's commentary is reasonable and pushes back on the idea that users are leaving prediction market platforms in a meaningful way. The company is also rolling out features to help reduce future discouragement, including a loyalty program that rewards bettors for consistently wagering with points and rewards. In addition, its Bet Protect+ offering allows bettors to pay a small fee to insure their bet, trading some upside for protection if they win. Furthermore, the firm appointed Christian Genetski to lead FanDuel following the departure of Amy Howe. Significant Potential in Flutter Remains After Q1 ReportOverall, Flutter’s results were encouraging, with the company taking real steps to address bettor churn at FanDuel. Those decisions can help the firm strike the right balance between profitability and engagement among its parlay-heavy user base. Flutter needs to treat that customer cohort carefully, as prediction markets cannot easily replicate parlay-style betting at scale. This is a key factor supporting the company’s outlook, since parlays are a highly margin-accretive revenue stream. The MarketBeat consensus price target on Flutter sits just under $200, implying more than 90% potential upside. It is worth noting that price target updates after the company’s report are much lower, averaging around $140. Still, that figure implies upside of more than 35%, and all analysts issuing updates maintained a Buy or equivalent rating on the stock. |
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