Echoes of volatility vs $88 projections (guess who wins)

Don Kaufman here

Three consecutive weeks of broken expected moves, and now they want me to believe $88?

I'm taking the over on that $88 all day long.

The market just told me next week's entire expected move is less than what we saw in single trading sessions this week.

Thursday alone had a 90-handle reversal that would make your head spin - markets trading 6430, then 6340, then back to basically unchanged.

We've shattered expected moves three consecutive weeks. Apple just moved 4.6 standard deviations outside its range - mathematically impossible territory until you actually see it happen.

Watch the weekend update video here

The S&P ripped 50 handles Friday while trading "on the edge of sanity."

But somehow next week will be calm? Not happening.

Here's what the market won't tell you about "echoes of volatility."

Volatility doesn't just disappear into the night quietly. You get this hangover effect - what I call "echoes of volatility" - that carries into future sessions.

I've been tracking this pattern for years, and we're seeing exactly that right now.

Last week: $133 expected move, we exceeded it. Week before: mild breach upside. This week: cracked through again. Some single sessions had ranges bigger than next week's entire projection.

The concentration risk makes this even more dangerous.

We've got 40% of the S&P 500 - that's a $57 trillion market cap - concentrated in just 10 stocks. When Apple can single-handedly grip hold the market and explode us up 56 handles in a session, your neat little projections become a joke.

This is your marketplace in a nutshell. We're literally hitting the point where the S&P 500 has single stock risk. The entire reason people buy SPY was diversification. That's gone.

Bottom line: The market's projecting nothing will happen. But when you understand how echoes of volatility actually work - and why concentration risk amplifies every move - you realize we're setting up for exactly the opposite.

Want to see my full breakdown of next week's positioning? I walked through the entire volatility echo pattern, showed you the concentration crisis numbers that'll blow your mind, and explained exactly how I'm playing this setup.

Watch the complete weekend update here

To your success,

Don Kaufman

P.S. This market doesn't have to make sense for you to profit from it. This week I closed out winners in ABNB 202%, AAPL 268%, KRE 55%, and XLU for 30%. And I wasn't the only one, Brandon Chapman scored a 70% winner in GDXJ and 133% CORZ, all thanks to his brand new surveillance console.

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Echoes of volatility vs $88 projections (guess who wins)

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